Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 15
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL.
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape.
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects.
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between actual production and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share equates to the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 14:
- Tyrone Tracy had an elite performance in Week 14, finishing with over 22.3 Expected Fantasy Points and accounting for 37.7% of the team’s total opportunities. For context, only two rookie running backs have exceeded 20.0 Expected Fantasy Points so far this year—Tyrone Tracy and Bucky Irving. Assuming Tracy maintains consistent RB1 usage, he should be viewed as a reliable high-floor option as we approach the fantasy playoffs.
- While both Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis filled in for Breece Hall in Week 14, Davis finished the week with a higher usage value (14.0 xFP). Surprisingly, both running backs accounted for 27% of the team’s opportunities. However, Davis did have the edge in the receiving game, leading the backfield with a 15.4% target share and 8.4% air yards share. Assuming Hall is sidelined for another game, Davis and Allen will both be potential flex options against a Jacksonville defense that continues to struggle against running backs.
- Assuming Isaac Guerendo’s foot sprain is not severe, he should be locked and loaded as an RB1 as we head into Week 15. Not only did he finish with over 25.0 fantasy points, but he also commanded a 13.2 usage value (RB15), despite leaving the game early due to injury. If he does miss time, Patrick Taylor is the next man up in the 49ers’ backfield.
- Brian Thomas Jr. has been trending in the right direction in recent weeks, receiving a +20% target share and a +25% air yards share in his last three games. In Week 14 against the Tennessee Titans, he accounted for an absurd 73.9% air yards share, leading all Jacksonville receivers in usage value. While Mac Jones clearly lowers the floor of this offense, Thomas seems to be one of his favorite targets, which should lead to flex-level production more often than not.
- This was by far Jalen McMillan’s most productive week as he finished with 19.9 half-PPR points and an 8.9 xFP usage value. More importantly, he set a season-high in target share with 25%, while finishing with his second-highest air yards share of his career (26.7%). However, because this offense will continue to run through Mike Evans, Cade Otton, and their running backs, McMillan will remain a risky flex option for dynasty managers.
- As someone who was excited to see Xavier Worthy produce in the NFL, it is undeniable how much he has struggled so far. In 13 games, Worthy has exceeded a 20% target share only twice this season, struggling to receive consistent volume from Patrick Mahomes. On the other hand, DeAndre Hopkins has already exceeded that threshold three times, despite only playing in seven games with the Chiefs. Until Worthy can command a higher usage value, it will be difficult to trust him in your lineups as anything more than a very risky WR3.
Dynasty Stock Report
Jordan Addison – Minnesota Vikings, WR
Stock Up
It was never a question about talent as Jordan Addison was one of the most accomplished wide receivers in the 2023 class (95th percentile prospect). For context, he never fell below a 25% receiving yards market share in any season at Pitt or USC, breaking out early and remaining heavily involved throughout his collegiate career. Fast forward to his rookie season, he joined a team that already featured an established WR1 in Justin Jefferson. However, he still showed flashes of upside throughout his rookie year, finishing as the WR27 in points per game in 2023. The far more concerning aspect of his rookie production was his Expected Point Value (usage) at WR40, averaging only an 18% target share in 17 games and operating as the second option behind Jefferson. While we initially saw similar trends to start the 2024 season, Addison’s usage has drastically improved in recent weeks. Over the last four games, he is averaging:
- 29.2% Target Share
- 41.8% Air Yards Share
- 25.4% Targets per Route Run
- 13.9 Expected Fantasy Points
It also helps that the Vikings rank near the top in Pass Rate Over Expected, relying heavily on Sam Darnold and their receivers to win their last four games. Assuming that continues, there should be enough volume for both Jefferson and Addison to remain fantasy-relevant, similar to what we have seen from Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. So despite Jefferson’s recent contract extension, Addison remains firmly entrenched as a top 30 dynasty wide receiver as we close out the 2024 season.
Jonathon Brooks – Carolina Panthers, RB
Stock Down
While it was likely going to be a redshirt year for Jonathon Brooks, I was still hopeful that he would emerge later in the year after fully recovering from his knee injury. Unfortunately, his breakout will be put on hold again as Brooks reinjured his ACL in Week 14, tearing the same knee for the second time in 13 months. After finally being activated just a couple of weeks ago, this marks the end of a heartbreaking season for Brooks, one of the most promising running backs in the 2024 class. He now faces a long road to recovery, which puts his status for the 2025 season at risk. Even beyond next year, our injury expert Matthew Betz discussed his concerns about early-onset arthritis, potentially impacting Brooks’ longterm outlook. In the meantime, Chuba Hubbard will remain the RB1 for an offense that continues to improve as the season progresses.
Jauan Jennings – San Francisco 49ers, WR
Stock Up
In the absence of Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings has quietly emerged as the WR1 for the 49ers’ offense. As you can see above, his usage fluctuated early in the year as Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle were the primary receiving options for Kyle Shannahan’s offense. However, with the injury to Aiyuk, Jennings has taken on an expanded role coming out of their bye week. Since Week 10, Jennings leads the 49ers’ receivers in usage value, averaging a:
- 32.1% Target Share
- 36.3% Air Yards Share
- 11.9 Expected Fantasy Points (WR19)
- +2.3 Fantasy Points Over Expected
For context, the only wide receivers averaging a higher target share than Jennings over the last five weeks are Puka Nacua and Drake London. While his season has been impressive so far, keep in mind that Jennings is already 28 years old. For context, we have only seen four wide receivers break out at age 28 or later since 2000. Of those four players, only T.J. Houshmandzadeh would produce another fantasy-relevant season after that point in his career. In short, while he likely will be a borderline WR1 as we close out the season, we likely need to temper our expectations for Jennings’ dynasty outlook, especially with Kittle, Samuel, and Aiyuk still under contract for next season.
Kirk Cousins – Atlanta Falcons, QB
Stock Down
When Kirk Cousins signed with the Atlanta Falcons this offseason, I expected him to elevate this offense to another level. And while Bijan Robinson and Drake London are both weekly top 20 options, Cousins has been far from elite this year. Through 14 weeks, he is currently only QB17 in EPA per Play (0.129) and QB15 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (+2.1). From a fantasy perspective, Cousins ranks outside the top 20 in both Expected Fantasy Points (14.8) and Fantasy Points Over Expected (-1.7), making him a volatile QB2 option at best for dynasty managers. With the Falcons still in the hunt for a playoff spot, Cousins should remain the starting quarterback for Atlanta. However, I would not be shocked if Michael Penix receives an opportunity to start a couple of games toward the end of the season, especially if the Falcons are eliminated from playoff contention. On a positive note, Cousins’ contract ensures he will remain with the Falcons for at least another season. Although his dynasty value continues to decline due to inconsistent production and efficiency, he still has the potential to keep the starting job for at least one more year.
Prospect Watch List
Cameron “Cam” Skattebo has generated significant buzz this season, ranking among the most productive running backs in college football. As you can see above, Skattebo is a five-year prospect who started his career in the FCS, playing for Sacramento State in his first three years out of high school. Keep in mind that the 2020 campaign was canceled for Sacramento State due to the pandemic, which meant that Skattebo’s first season would have to wait until 2021. As a freshman, he would only average around 11% of the team’s offensive production, finishing the year with only 520 scrimmage yards. He would elevate his game further as the lead running back for the Hornets in 2022, averaging an impressive 1.71 Yards per Team Play and a 24.5% Weighted Dominator Rating. While it was encouraging to see Skattebo break out in his third year, keep in mind that the competition level at Sacramento State is significantly lower than playing in an FBS conference.
Fast forward to 2023, Skattebo transferred to Arizona State as a junior, where he would continue to produce at a high level. In his first campaign with the Sun Devils, he would total over 1,000 scrimmage yards while accounting for over 30% of the team’s production. And while his efficiency would drop to 1.32 yards per team play (66th percentile), Skattebo proved that he can be a productive running back despite playing in a more competitive conference. His most accomplished campaign would not occur until the 2024 season. As you can see below, Skattebo would average 2.57 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play for the Sun Devils, ranking second among all running backs in college football. More impressively, he also continued to elevate his involvement in the receiving game, setting a career-high in receiving yards market share at 18.4%. Naturally, we should expect him to produce at a high level, especially as an older prospect entering his fifth season. However, considering his production and efficiency currently rank in the 99.9th percentile, Skattebo should still be in contention as a potential day-two pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
In short, Skattebo currently ranks as a 77th-percentile prospect in my rookie model, just outside of the top six in next year’s running back class. While his grade could still change depending on draft capital and his performance at the combine, Skattebo is just another example of how deep and talented the 2025 running back class is projected to be.
For a list of prospects to keep an eye on as we head into the 2025 NFL Draft, below are the most productive CFB running backs this season:
