Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 15
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines for fantasy football from a dynasty perspective. Since the season never truly ends in a dynasty league, changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s dynasty value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) are synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between each player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on.
- Opportunity Share is the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Data courtesy of @nflfastR.
Rookie Observations after Week 14:
- While Arthur Smith may not be a fan of fantasy football, he at least has figured out that Bijan Robinson should be the lead running back of the team. Over the last four weeks, Bijan is the RB6 in Expected Fantasy Points, averaging a 34% opportunity share and 21.4% target share in three games. In addition, the Falcons have one of the best schedules for running backs based on schedule-adjusted points. So as long as he continues to receive RB1 usage, Bijan has an opportunity to be a league-winner for dynasty managers.
- Jahmyr Gibbs bounced back in Week 14 as he led the Detroit backfield in routes (63%), snaps (63%), and opportunity share (26%). Keep in mind, his usage (Expected Fantasy Points) still only ranked as RB23 on the week – which is a sizable downgrade from what we saw from Weeks 7 through 12. With Montgomery still heavily involved, Gibbs should be considered a high-upside RB2 for the remainder of the season.
- With Kenneth Walker’s return to the lineup, Zach Charbonnet was relegated to his RB2 role – accounting for only 19% of the team’s opportunities. In addition, Charbonnet also trailed in total routes run as Walker led the backfield with a 58% route participation.
- Zay Flowers just had the second-highest Expected Fantasy Value (15.1 xFP) of his career as he totaled 10 opportunities, converting them into 17 half-PPR points. While Odell Beckham Jr. did score more fantasy points, Flowers continues to lead the team in route percentage (100%) and target share (25%). This is also the second week in a row in which Flowers has finished as a top-six wide receiver in half-PPR leagues.
- For the fifth week in a row, Jonathan Mingo accounted for over 20% of the Panther’s targets and air yards. While it has yet to lead to a productive week from a fantasy perspective, Mingo’s usage continues to improve despite the struggles of Bryce Young (more on that in the next segment).
- As you can imagine, Puka Nacua is on a historic pace in his rookie season. In fact, through 13 games, Nacua ranks third among rookie receivers since 2000 in total receiving yards. The only wide receivers to rank ahead of him are Odell Beckham Jr. (1,305) and Anquan Boldin (1,155). At this rate, Nacua should be considered a top 10 dynasty wide receiver by the end of the year.
- For the second time this year, Quentin Johnston exceeded double-digit half-PPR points. However, his market share metrics continue to fluctuate. After setting a career-high 19.4% target share in Week 13, his usage dropped to 10% in Week 14. And with Justin Herbert out for the foreseeable future, Johnston’s production is unlikely to improve going forward.
- With Dawson Knox back in the lineup, I was curious to see how drastically Dalton Kincaid’s usage would change. Even though he scored fewer fantasy points than Knox, Kincaid continued to operate as the TE1 – leading the Bills in routes (86%), target share (22.2%), and air yards share (14.4%) in Week 14. Kincaid did suffer a shoulder injury, which is something to monitor as we head into the fantasy playoffs.
Since 2000, the most receiving yards by a rookie through 13 games?
1. Odell Beckham Jr (1305)
2. Anquan Boldin (1155)
3. PUKA NACUA (1113)
4. Justin Jefferson (1078)
5. Marques Colston (1038)🚀🚀🚀
— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) December 12, 2023
Dynasty Stock Report
Rashee Rice – Kansas City Chiefs, WR
Stock Up
Entering the NFL draft, I was not the biggest fan of Rashee Rice’s profile as he was only marginally productive before his senior year breakout. For context, he only averaged 19% of SMU’s receiving yards in his first three seasons – which falls well below the threshold of a breakout. On a positive note, he dominated in his final year at SMU as he accounted for over 32% of their receiving production. Coupled with day two capital, Rice was not an elite prospect, though he still graded in the 73rd percentile in my rookie model.
Fast forward to his rookie year, it was an inconsistent start for Rice. Through 11 weeks, he only averaged a 13% target share and was second among Chiefs wide receivers (behind Justin Watson) in Expected Points. However, over the last three games, we are starting to see flashes of the receiver that dominated at SMU last year. Since Week 12, Rice is averaging:
- 28.7% Target Share
- 15.3% Air yards Share
- 12.0 Expected Points
- 73% Route Participation
His Expected Fantasy Value ranks WR18 in that timespan, implying that he has consistently received WR2 volume in the Chiefs’ offense. He is also coming off of a career-high route percentage (82%) and snap share (85%) as his connection with Patrick Mahomes continues to grow. In short, Rice is quickly emerging as the WR1 for this team. While I do think the Chiefs will either sign or draft another receiver this offseason, that is more of an indication of their lack of depth behind Rice. Either way, he should remain a key part of this offense that relies so heavily on the passing game.
Bryce Young – Carolina Panthers, QB
Stock Down
Bryce Young, who was chosen as the first overall pick in the 2023 draft, has been under a lot of pressure to perform from the start of his NFL career. However, he has struggled heavily in his first season due to various circumstances. To provide context, among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts, Young ranks as:
- QB35 in Adjusted Yards per Attempt (4.71)
- QB37 in EPA per Attempt (-0.10)
- QB32 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (-2.7)
- QB32 in Fantasy Points per Game (14.1)
His production has been far from encouraging, finishing as a QB1 only once in 12 games. The good news is that this offense could look drastically different next year as the Panthers will be hiring a new coaching staff in 2024. In addition, I expect them to heavily address the wide receiver position – either through a deep rookie class or via free agency. Assuming the Panthers surround Young with plenty of talent, I would not be surprised if he took a leap in his second season as the Panthers’ offense should be much improved in 2024.
Rachaad White – Tampa Bay Buccaneers, RB
Stock Up
After Leonard Fournette was released, Rachaad White was expected to take on a more prominent role for the Buccaneers. Although he started off the season inconsistently, his performance has gradually improved in recent weeks. In fact, over the last eight weeks, White has ranked among the top 18 running backs in half-PPR scoring in every game. Moreover, his usage has also increased significantly. Since the Buccaneers’ bye week, White has been averaging a:
- 34% Opportunity Share
- 13.1% Target Share
- 64.2% Rushing Share
- 73% Route Participation
If we translate his usage into Expected Fantasy Points (average per-game value of his opportunities), he would rank as the RB11 with 13.6 Points – only slightly behind the usage values of Joe Mixon and Austin Ekeler. In short, White should enter the offseason as a top-15 dynasty running back, considering his recent surge in production, age, and contractual value. With two years left on his rookie deal, he should remain a focal point of the Buccaneers’ offense for at least the next two seasons.
Khalil Herbert – Chicago Bears, RB
Stock Down
The Chicago Bears backfield has been difficult to predict all season as Khalil Herbert, D’Onta Foreman, and Roschon Johnson have all been equally involved. In fact, since returning from injured reserve, Herbert has only averaged a 27% snap share. That ranks behind both Foreman and Johnson as all three running backs have averaged less than eight fantasy points per game. And in their most recent matchup against Detroit, Foreman was the clear RB1, leading the backfield with a 23% opportunity share while Johnson and Herbert combined for 6%. In short, I do not feel confident in any of the Bears’ running backs beyond this season as I would not be surprised if Chicago pursued an upgrade in 2024. Considering Herbert is approaching the final year of his rookie deal and Foreman is set to be a free agent, the Bears could either draft or sign a more capable option next offseason. With plenty of ambiguity entering 2024, the Bears are a backfield that I will gladly avoid for dynasty purposes.
Prospect Watch List
My enthusiasm for the 2024 class has slowly faded with a couple of running backs rumored to return to college for another season. That includes Raheim Sanders and TreVeyon Henderson who were both projected to be selected in the first two rounds of the 2024 draft. As a result, the RB1 spot in the 2024 rookie class is now up for grabs, leading to some uncertainty regarding the depth of this class. That said, there are still a few running backs who could be impactful players at the next level such as Braelon Allen, who recently declared for the draft after three productive seasons with the Wisconsin Badgers.
I wrote an article earlier this year titled “An Early Look at the 2024 Running Back Class,” highlighting multiple reasons why Allen is one of the top prospects of the upcoming draft. First off, he possesses the physical traits to excel as a running back in the NFL. At 6’2″ and 245 pounds, he shares a striking resemblance to Derrick Henry in terms of physique. This is something to keep in mind when Allen participates at the combine next offseason. Despite the fact that he may only run a 4.50 or 4.60 40-yard dash, similar to Henry, Allen’s weight-adjusted speed score could still place him well within the +90th percentile. In addition to his physical attributes, his production profile is what sets him apart as an intriguing prospect. As can be seen above, Allen was the focal point of the Badgers’ offense, responsible for nearly 30% of the team’s total offense each season. Unfortunately, his efficiency did drop in 2023, in part due to an ankle injury that affected his availability and production against Ohio State and Northwestern. If we exclude those two matchups, Allen’s 2023 Yards per Team Play would improve to 1.63 – which is very much in line with his freshman season. In addition, Allen also has one of the youngest breakout ages in recent history at 17 years old, which puts into perspective just how impressive his career has been.
With such an accomplished resume, Allen is now projected to be selected in the second or third round of the NFL draft. If we assume day two capital, his early grade in my rookie model has him ranked in the 89th to 90th percentile, right next to players like Duke Johnson and A.J. Dillon. So while he is far from an elite prospect, Allen should still be an immediate difference-maker in the NFL, assuming he lands in a favorable situation and offensive ecosystem.