Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 14
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL.
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape.
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects.
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between actual production and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share equates to the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 13:
- There were only five running backs who finished Week 13 with over 20.0 Expected Fantasy Points (elite usage): Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, Jonathan Taylor, and… Bucky Irving. For comparison, Rachaad White finished with only 7.2 Expected Fantasy Points, signaling a significant shift in their backfield distribution. Of course, the game script favored a run-heavy game plan, which could have boosted Irving’s usage value. Regardless, his dynasty stock continues to improve as he cements himself as the lead running back for Tampa Bay.
- Jonathon Brooks was significantly more involved in Week 13. While Chuba Hubbard still led the backfield in total opportunities (12) and snaps, Brooks received a larger share of the high-value touches. In the red zone, it was Brooks who led the backfield with five opportunities, while Hubbard only received one. As a result, he finished the game with a higher Expected Fantasy Point value of 8.8. Expect Brooks’ usage to only improve as he continues to work his way back to full health.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. set a season-high in Expected Fantasy Points with 18.8. He was tied with Trey McBride in target share (27.9%) against the Vikings while leading the team by a significant margin in air yards share with 58%. While this offense continues to rely on James Conner and the running game, Harrison remains an integral part of the offense as the unquestioned WR1 for the team.
- Similar to Harrison Jr., Brian Thomas Jr. set a season-high in usage value with 17.6 Expected Fantasy Points as Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence combined for 42 pass attempts. With a pass-heavy game script trying to keep up with the Texans’ offense, Thomas accounted for 24% of the team’s targets, finishing the week as a borderline WR1. Despite his productive performance, BTJ remains a risky flex option for dynasty managers due to the inconsistency in usage and quarterback play.
- Brock Bowers continues to perform as an elite TE1 for fantasy football. He becomes one of only two TEs over the last five seasons with multiple games accounting for over 40% of the team’s targets and air yards. Mark Andrews is the only other tight end to exceed those thresholds multiple times since 2020.
- While Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels stand out, finishing as top five quarterbacks in Week 13, Drake Maye should receive plenty of praise as well. Against the Colts, Maye finished the week as a top-seven quarterback in EPA per Play (0.19), Success Rate (57.1%), and Completion Percentage Over Expected (+10.4), leading to one of his most efficient performances.
Dynasty Stock Report
Nico Collins – Houston Texans, WR
Stock Up
Heading into the season, there were legitimate questions regarding the pecking order of the Texans’ stacked wide receiver corps. However, even early in the season, we saw that while Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs were heavily involved, Nico Collins remained the unquestioned WR1 for Houston. Excluding the games in which he played fewer than 50% of the snaps due to a hamstring injury, Collins is commanding elite WR1 usage. In his six healthy games, he is averaging:
- 29.9% Target Share
- 41.7% Air Yards Share
- 19.6% Opportunities per Snap
- 14.5 Expected Fantasy Points
When healthy, Collins’ usage value of 14.5 xFP would rank WR2 on the season, placing him among some of the elite fantasy wide receivers. In addition, his dynasty value is further solidified by his recent three-year extension and the quarterback stability provided by C.J. Stroud. Coupled with his recent surge in production, Collins has undeniably established himself as a top-tier player at his position, firmly cementing his value as a top-five dynasty wide receiver as we approach the 2025 offseason.
Tyjae Spears – Tennessee Titans, RB
Stock Down
While there was some buzz that Tyjae Spears could take over as the RB1 for the Titans after Derrick Henry left in free agency, those hopes were dashed very quickly as Tony Pollard was signed to a three-year extension. And 13 weeks into the season, it is clear that the Titans view Pollard as the current RB1 for their team. So far this season, Pollard leads the Titans’ backfield in opportunity share (37%) and Expected Fantasy Points (13.4), commanding top-20 usage at the running back position. On the other hand, Spears has only averaged 5.7 Expected Fantasy Points, exceeding double-digit opportunities only twice this year. With Pollard locked in as the RB1 at least through the next season (his final year is non-guaranteed), Spears’ production will remain limited as the clear backup in Brian Callahan’s offense.
Ladd McConkey – Los Angeles Chargers, WR
Stock Up
While many, including myself, anticipated a breakout season for Quentin Johnston in his sophomore year, it is undeniable that Ladd McConkey has firmly established himself as the Chargers’ WR1. Especially in Week 13, he dominated as their lead receiver, finishing the game with a 50% target share and a 69.3% air yards share. And for the full season, McConkey’s market share numbers rank near the top among some of the most productive wide receivers in the league. Through 12 games, McConkey is averaging a:
- 24.9% Target Share
- 29.8% Air Yards Share
- 23% Targets per Route Run
- 86% Route Participation
However, despite his elite usage, McConkey is only averaging 8.8 Expected Fantasy Points as the Chargers remain a run-heavy offense. As a result, because of the inconsistent passing volume, McConkey will need to continue to average a higher target share than most WR1s for his usage to translate into top-24 fantasy production. This is eerily similar to Drake London’s rookie year as he was heavily involved in the Falcons’ offense (29% target share) but struggled to make a fantasy impact as Arthur Smith leaned on the running game. Despite that, McConkey’s dynasty stock is trending in the right direction. Especially with Justin Herbert locked in as the Chargers’ quarterback, McConkey should be valued as a top-20 dynasty wide receiver, even though his upside may be capped in a run-heavy Jim Harbaugh offense.
Michael Mayer – Las Vegas Raiders, TE
Stock Down
With the selection of Brock Bowers in the 2024 NFL Draft, Michael Mayer’s dynasty stock took a significant hit this offseason. While selecting Bowers should be considered a successful pick, it does not change the fact that Mayer was an incredibly accomplished prospect (98th percentile in schedule-adjusted college production) coming out of Notre Dame and will unfortunately never break out with the Raiders. The Raiders’ offensive game plan all but confirms that as Bowers has been a top-five TE in nearly every metric. At the same time, Mayer has only averaged a 6.1% target share and 40% route participation as his dynasty stock continues to plummet this season. Despite that, I am still optimistic that Mayer could emerge later in his career. Especially with multiple teams in need of a long-term option at tight end (Cincinnati Bengals, New York Giants, or the Los Angeles Chargers to name a few), Mayer could be an intriguing trade target, especially if teams still believe in the talent we saw at Notre Dame just a couple of years ago. So while his dynasty value is currently at an all-time low, dynasty managers should hold onto Mayer just in case he is traded this upcoming off-season.
Prospect Watch List
As we close out the college football season, Jordyn Tyson’s dynasty stock continues to improve after an impressive breakout campaign. His story has been especially inspiring considering what he had to overcome to arrive at this point in his career. As you can see in his production above, Tyson started his career with the University of Colorado, contributing immediately and accounting for nearly 28% of their receiving yards as a true freshman. On a per-game basis, his first season is one of the better true freshman campaigns in recent history, ranking in the 91st percentile among drafted wide receivers since 2013. However, he would suffer a season-ending knee injury—tearing his ACL, MCL, and PCL—towards the end of his 2022 campaign. Unfortunately, because of the length of recovery, Tyson barely played in 2023 and redshirted his first season with Arizona State.
On a positive note, Tyson was then projected to be fully healthy heading into his third campaign. As you can see above, not only has he played in every game this season, but he also is dominating as Arizona State’s WR1. In fact, among Power 4 receivers, Tyson ranks second in receiving yards per team pass attempt at 3.48 (behind only Tre Harris). For context, his third-year production would rank in the 95th percentile compared to all drafted wide receivers over the last 12 years. In short, Tyson was mainly projected as a UDFA or day-three prospect, in part because of the uncertainty of coming back from a knee injury. However, after an elite breakout campaign, he should be in the conversation as a day-two pick heading into the 2025 NFL Draft. Assuming he declares and fully recovers from his shoulder injury (suffered this past week), Tyson will be one of my favorite middle-round rookie picks in dynasty drafts after a productive collegiate career at Colorado and Arizona State.
For a list of other prospects to keep an eye on, below are the top CFB wide receivers this season:
