Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 13
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective, as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and one of the Ballers!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position.
For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric closely tied to volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between their actual production and expected fantasy value. This metric will generally fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share represents the percentage of targets and rush attempts a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 12:
- Despite a favorable matchup, TreVeyon Henderson only produced 9.6 half-PPR points against Cincinnati. More importantly, though, he remained the RB1 for the Patriots despite the return of Rhamondre Stevenson, finishing as a top-12 RB in Expected Fantasy Points (14.8). While Stevenson could be more involved in the coming games, until we see otherwise, Henderson should be locked in as a borderline RB1 each week.
- While the Raiders’ offensive line continues to limit Ashton Jeanty’s production on the ground, he positively impacted the game as a receiver. On a 19% target share, he finished with +4.7 Expected Points Added (EPA) and a career-high 78 yards after the catch. As long as Jeanty remains involved in the receiving game, he will continue to hold RB1 upside, even in a tougher matchup against the Browns.
- With Alvin Kamara suffering a knee injury, Devin Neal led the Saints’ backfield in usage and volume in Week 12. While he was not particularly efficient as a rusher, he was impactful as a receiver, averaging 9.1 yards after the catch per target on seven opportunities. While the RB1 for the Saints does not hold significant upside, Neal could emerge as a flex option if he accounts for the majority of their backfield opportunities going forward.
Sean Thomas-Imagn Images
- It was a career game for Jayden Higgins, who finished with a 32.1% target share and 50.6% air yards share against the Bills. This also now marks the fourth time in the last five games in which Higgins finished within the top 20 in Expected Fantasy Points (WR2 usage). While Nico Collins will remain the WR1 for this team, Higgins has clearly cemented himself as the number two option for the Texans.
- Despite a pair of disappointing performances, Emeka Egbuka has commanded over 25% of the Bucs’ targets in his last four games, averaging a 26% targets per route run. While the injury to Baker Mayfield could be concerning going forward, Egbuka is still commanding targets at an impressive rate and remains the WR1 for Tampa Bay.
- While Shedeur Sanders only threw the ball 20 times, Harold Fannin was by far his favorite target, leading the team with a 33.3% target share. As for Sanders’ performance, there were both positives and negatives. He finished within the top 15 in EPA per Play (0.05), but was highly inconsistent with a 29.2% Success Rate (QB27).
Dynasty Stock Report
George Pickens – Dallas Cowboys, WR – Stock Up
When George Pickens was traded from the Steelers to the Cowboys, I expected him to make an immediate impact on Dallas’ offense. However, I did not expect him to dominate for fantasy managers as he has in recent weeks. Through 11 games, Pickens has been one of the most productive receivers in the league, averaging:
- 23.1% Target Share
- 36% Air Yards Share
- 12.6 Expected Fantasy Points
- +4.4 Fantasy Points Over Expected
For context, Pickens is currently the WR3 in half-PPR scoring (17.0), behind only Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Keep in mind that CeeDee Lamb still leads the team in every usage metric, which means he still holds value as a WR1 for dynasty managers. However, on a team that ranks within the top 10 in Pass Rate over Expected, there should be enough opportunities for Pickens to remain a high-upside WR2 alongside Lamb. As for his dynasty value, Pickens is in the final year of his rookie contract. However, considering how productive he has been, I would be shocked if he was not extended by the end of the season.
David Njoku – Cleveland Browns, TE – Stock Down
Once valued as a dynasty TE1 over the last few years, David Njoku’s tenure with the Browns may be coming to an end. Not only has Harold Fannin Jr. taken over as one of their leading receivers, but Njoku is also in the final year of his contract. As a result, we have only seen him finish as a fantasy TE1 in three games this year. Njoku is also only averaging a 13.2% target share, his lowest in a season since 2021, and a significant decline from 22.7% last season. Unfortunately, with a much more limited role and plenty of uncertainty regarding his future, Njoku is unlikely to be valued higher than a top-20 dynasty TE as we head into the offseason.
Jaylen Waddle – Miami Dolphins, WR – Stock Up
With the season-ending injury to Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle has taken over as the Dolphins’ de facto WR1 for the first time since his rookie year. And even with inconsistent QB play, Waddle has been a solid WR2 for dynasty managers most weeks. Since Week 5, Waddle has commanded a 25.1% target share and an absurd 55.5% (!!) air yards share as the leading WR for Tua Tagovailoa. His usage has resulted in 12.6 half-PPR points, which ranks WR18 over the last eight weeks. In addition, Waddle is also averaging 26% Targets per Route Run, which places him within the top 10 WRs since Week 5. While his production is still far from elite, it is a significant improvement from last season and an encouraging sign for his long-term outlook if he remains with the Dolphins. Especially with Hill unlikely to return next year, Waddle should be their number one receiving option for the foreseeable future.
Tony Pollard – Tennessee Titans, RB – Stock Down
Entering the year as a top-30 dynasty RB, many expected Tony Pollard to continue to produce RB2 numbers after a top-24 campaign last season. However, Pollard and the entire Titans offense have struggled this year, ranking 30th in EPA per Play (-0.16) in their first 11 games. Equally concerning, the Titans rank 31st in Success Rate (38.7%), often resulting in short drives and a lack of high-value opportunities for their players. As a result, Pollard has failed to exceed double-digit fantasy points (half-PPR) in all but two games this season, finishing as an RB2 in only 27% of his games. With no signs of this offense improving anytime soon, and with his contract expiring after this season, Pollard will continue to decline as we head into the offseason.
Prospect Watch List
Emmett Johnson’s breakout has been one of the highlights of the college football season after he started his career in a rotational role. Standing at only 5’11” and 200 pounds, Johnson is a surprisingly powerful and elusive runner, often using his speed and footwork to generate positive plays. We’ve seen this repeatedly this year as Johnson has been the unquestioned workhorse RB for the Cornhuskers. In 11 games, Johnson has averaged an impressive 44.6% EPA Success Rate and 2.27 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play, placing his season in the 96th percentile. Furthermore, he has proven to be an effective receiver, accounting for a career-high 13% of his team’s receiving yards this season. In short, Johnson’s dynasty value continues to improve as he remains one of the most productive college RBs this year. However, while his year has been impressive, his analytical profile does carry a couple of red flags. The most glaring one is his later breakout, emerging only in his fourth season. For context, the most elite prospects typically produce at a higher rate earlier in their careers, which is why players like Jeremiyah Love and Jonah Coleman will likely rank ahead of Johnson in my rankings. Despite that, Johnson’s stock is undeniably on the rise as he continues to cement his value as a day-two pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. And assuming he does get selected early, he will be one of the more intriguing picks in dynasty drafts next season.
As we approach the 2026 NFL Draft, here is a list of the most productive college football RBs this season:
