Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 13
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines for fantasy football from a dynasty perspective. Since the season never truly ends in a dynasty league, changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s dynasty value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Week 12
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) are synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between each player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually regress closer to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on.
- Opportunity Share is the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Data courtesy of @nflfastR.
Rookie Observations after Week 12:
- Bijan Robinson’s emergence continues as he finished with over 20 opportunities and 15.0 Expected Fantasy Points for the second week in a row. He also finished Week 12 with an elite 43% targets per route run, making a significant impact in the receiving game. With his improved usage, Robinson could be a league-winner for dynasty managers as the Falcons currently have the third-easiest schedule for running backs to end the season.
- Jahmyr Gibbs had a relatively disappointing week as he only finished with 9.3 half-PPR points. However, he continues to dominate the opportunities despite the involvement of David Montgomery, finishing with 16.3 Expected Fantasy Points (RB8) and an 82% route participation in Week 12. Keep in mind that Gibbs has produced a top-10 performance in four of his last five games. So assuming he remains healthy, Gibbs should be borderline RB1 most weeks as we close out the season.
- Jayden Reed has been trending in the right direction in recent weeks, finishing as a top-24 wide receiver in each of his last three games. He also finished with the second-highest route participation of his career in Week 12 at 79%, while commanding a target on 27% of his routes. While there is still plenty of room for improvement in his usage (only an 18% target share since Week 10), his recent surge in production has been encouraging to see.
- Puka Nacua had a quiet game despite the Rams scoring over 30 points against the Cardinals. However, he was still heavily involved with a 26% target share, 39% air yards share, and 91% route participation. Considering his usage in this offense, I fully expect Nacua to bounce back as soon as next week.
- Rashee Rice put together his most complete game this season. While he was heavily reliant on efficiency (+8.9 FPOE), Rice did set career highs in multiple usage metrics. That includes Expected Fantasy Points (11.7), target share (31%), air yards share (29%), and route participation (68%). If this usage continues, Rice should be a low-end WR2 in what projects to be one of the most pass-heavy offenses going forward.
- Per usual, C.J. Stroud was the only fantasy-relevant rookie quarterback this past week, finishing as the QB4 with over 30 fantasy points. This now marks three QB1 performances in his last four games, heavily driven by a pass-heavy game plan as the Texans rank sixth in Pass Rate Over Expected in that time span.
Dynasty Stock Report
Tank Dell – Houston Texans, WR
Stock Up
It has been an interesting year for rookie wide receivers as many (including myself) expected the first-round prospects to make an immediate impact for fantasy managers. To our surprise, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Quentin Johnston have struggled, while the later-round receivers have been far more productive this year. That includes Nathaniel “Tank” Dell, who was a third-round wide receiver out of the University of Houston. Transitioning to the NFL, there was always an opening for Dell to assume an immediate role as the Texans did not have a definitive WR1. And while Nico Collins has been productive in his third season, Dell currently leads the team in the following metrics:
- Air Yards Share (33.5%)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (0.56)
- Expected Fantasy Points (12.2)
- Targets per Route Run (23.7%)
Dell’s emergence is a perfect example of what we should be looking for in a wide receiver prospect. Naturally, everyone was worried about his smaller frame at only 5’8” and 165 pounds. However, historical data has shown us that height, weight, and even BMI do not have a strong correlation to NFL production for the wide receiver position. Instead, what matters far more is production, efficiency, and draft capital. As you can see below, Dell was highly productive in college, which is the main reason he ranked in the 81st percentile in my prospect model. Coupled with third-round capital, Dell always projected as a massive value at his later-round rookie ADP. And considering he is now tied to C.J. Stroud for the foreseeable future, his dynasty value should only improve going forward.
Outside of draft capital, the highest correlation to NFL production for WRs has always been college production
Not height, weight, or BMI.
Despite his size, Tank Dell was extremely productive in his five-year collegiate career. We're now seeing that translate into the NFL pic.twitter.com/WFR9mrMMNW
— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) November 20, 2023
Miles Sanders – Carolina Panthers, RB
Stock Down
Miles Sanders started the season off on a positive note, finishing within the top 36 in half-PPR scoring in each of his first three games. Unfortunately, his usage has consistently declined as Chuba Hubbard has re-emerged for this offense. In addition, since their bye week, Sanders is only averaging a 16.3% opportunity share, 11.2% target share, and 28% route participation. And while he did receive 15 carries last week, he still trailed Hubbard in snaps, opportunity share, and route participation in Week 12. From a financial perspective, Sanders’ four-year contract is essentially a two-year deal as his final two years beyond 2024 are non-guaranteed. With Hubbard also under contract next season, the Panthers could continue to employ a committee. However, with the recent firing of Frank Reich, we could see the backfield distribution shift once again. So while Sanders has been trending in the wrong direction in recent weeks, the coaching change could further impact his dynasty value.
David Montgomery – Detroit Lions, RB
Stock Up
When Jahmyr Gibbs was initially drafted by the Detroit Lions, many believed that David Montgomery‘s dynasty value would plummet this season. However, the Lions have made a conscious effort to keep Montgomery involved in their offense. In fact, he currently ranks as a top-20 running back in both Opportunity Share (29%) and Expected Fantasy Points (12.9) through 12 weeks, allowing him to finish as top-20 fantasy running back in all but one game this season. Furthermore, despite their plethora of receiving weapons, the Lions continue to operate as a run-heavy offense, averaging the eighth-lowest Pass Rate Over Expected (-3.7%) this season. As a result, despite Gibbs’ improved usage in recent weeks, both running backs have remained fantasy-relevant due to the Lions’ run-centric game plan.
Despite his recent resurgence, Montgomery still profiles as a riskier long-term investment. While he is currently signed through the 2025 season, his cap hit is set to decline significantly after 2024. Moreover, Gibbs is clearly the future of this backfield, which suggests that Montgomery may be looking for a new team after next season. Therefore, now might be the ideal time to take advantage of Montgomery’s inflated dynasty ADP (RB19 per Keep Trade Cut), as I anticipate his value will only decline going forward.
Allen Lazard – New York Jets, WR
Stock Down
One of the most surprising developments this past week was the “healthy scratch” of Allen Lazard in the Jets’ Week 12 matchup against the Dolphins. While Lazard has not been an impactful receiver for New York, it was still shocking to see him inactive for the first time this year. In 11 games, Lazard is averaging only a 13% target share, 21% air yards share, and 12% targets per route run, ranking well outside of flex-territory in fantasy production. Robert Saleh’s comments do not instill a lot of confidence either, challenging Lazard to “recapture the edge in who he is and the person that we have a lot of faith in.” While Jelani Scott’s article suggests that Lazard could return to the field soon, it is unclear when that would happen. Contractually, he still holds a significant cap hit next season, which guarantees that he will still be on the roster whenever Aaron Rodgers returns fully healthy. However, the back half of his contract is non-guaranteed starting in 2025 (saving the Jets $11 million per year), which further clouds his future with New York.
Prospect Watch List
Many dynasty managers are familiar with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, who are expected to enter the 2024 NFL Draft. However, Malik Washington has also been impressive this year. Washington is a five-year prospect who currently plays for Virginia and has been one of the most productive Power 5 receivers this season. In 12 games, he has averaged an elite 3.60 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt (RY/TPA), accounting for over 47% of the team’s receiving yards. In other words, he has been the focal point of the Cavaliers’ offense this season. Despite his dominance with Virginia, Washington’s early career production was far less impressive. He played four seasons at Northwestern, only breaking out in his junior year. Even then, we ideally want to see wide receiver prospects exceed the 2.00 RY/TPA threshold early in their careers, which Washington did not accomplish until this redshirt-senior season.
In short, while his 2023 campaign has been extremely impressive, his overall draft profile does hold some risk. First off, five-year wide receiver prospects already have a fairly low breakout rate at only 6.3% since 2013. In addition, of the six prospects that broke out in the NFL, five were drafted with day two capital. As a result, draft capital will matter significantly for Washington if we expect him to break out at the next level. As of right now, per the NFL Mock Draft Database, Washington is currently projected as a day-three pick, which could still change as the offseason progresses. Regardless, we rarely see players with his draft profile emerge in the NFL, especially as a five-year prospect with a late breakout age. So while Washington did have an elite 2023 campaign, he likely profiles as a riskier option in your dynasty rookie drafts.
