Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 12
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL.
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape.
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects.
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between a player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share equates to the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Data courtesy of @nflfastR.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 11:
- It was a quiet week for rookie running backs, especially as Audric Estime lost the starting job to Javonte Williams. After leading the Broncos’ backfield in Week 10 with 8.9 Expected Fantasy Points, Estime received most of his nine opportunities in garbage time. In fact, seven of his nine opportunities occurred when the Broncos had a 99% win probability (a.k.a. garbage time). On the other hand, Williams was a top-15 running back in usage value, clearly leading the Denver backfield.
- Since their bye week, Rome Odunze has commanded a +20% target share and +30% air yards share in three of four games. In that timespan, he leads the Bears’ receivers in usage value with 10.5 Expected Points, averaging a 25% target share and 41% air yards share. His role continues to expand as the Bears approach the sixth-easiest schedule for wide receivers for the remainder of the fantasy season.
- After only scoring 0.6 fantasy points in his last two games, Xavier Worthy bounced back significantly as he finished the week as a top-20 wide receiver in half-PPR leagues. However, his usage continues to underwhelm, exceeding a 20% target share only twice so far in his rookie season. Both of those games came before DeAndre Hopkins was traded to the Chiefs. Until we see him command a higher usage value (unlikely with Hopkins and Travis Kelce still heavily involved), Worthy will remain a risky flex option every week.
- Brock Bowers had a truly elite performance in Week 11 as he commanded a 41% target share and 43% air yards share against the Dolphins. His 22.9 Expected Fantasy Points is the fifth-highest usage value by a tight end over the last five seasons. It was an impressive performance as Bowers continues to cement himself as the dynasty TE1.
- Jayden Daniels continues to command elite usage as he once again finished as a QB1 in Expected Fantasy Points. However, he once again underperformed from a fantasy perspective, scoring only one touchdown in his last two games. Expect his efficiency to regress to the mean in the coming weeks, which could happen in Week 12 as the Commanders face a Cowboys defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in schedule-adjusted points allowed to the quarterback position.
- Drake Maye continues to flash QB1 potential as he just had his most efficient game in his young career. Against the Rams, he was a top-eight quarterback in Expected Fantasy Points, finishing with career-highs in EPA per Play (0.25) and Completion Percentage Over Expected (+9.7).
Dynasty Stock Report
Saquon Barkley – Philadelphia Eagles, RB
Stock Up
Fantasy managers were rightfully excited when Saquon Barkley signed with the Philadelphia Eagles this offseason, finally being surrounded by an elite offensive ecosystem for the first time in his career. After all, despite the struggles of the Giants’ offense, he managed to finish as an RB1 in points per game in each of his last two campaigns. With a much better supporting cast around him, the expectation was that he would once again finish as a top-five running back. And through 11 weeks, Barkley is on pace to have one of the most productive seasons of his career. In 10 games, he is averaging:
- 37% Opportunity Share
- 11.7% Target Share
- 15.9 Expected Fantasy Points
- 20.8 HPPR Points per Game
While Barkley averaged more fantasy points as a rookie, his 2024 campaign is by far his most efficient season, averaging +4.9 Fantasy Points Over Expected per game. In short, his decision to join Philadelphia has paid off tremendously for both the Eagles and dynasty managers. Especially at 27 years old, I expect Barkley to sustain this type of production for at least another season before he approaches the end of his prime. Therefore, while he is an older running back, he likely presents as a perfect trade target for contenders in need of immediate, elite production. Especially with the third-easiest remaining schedule for running backs, Barkley should continue to dominate as the Eagles are eyeing another deep run into the playoffs.
Keenan Allen – Chicago Bears, WR
Stock Down
When Keenan Allen was traded to the Bears after 11 seasons with the Chargers, many assumed his days of being a target magnet were likely coming to an end. Especially with DJ Moore and Rome Odunze expected to be heavily involved, Allen was unlikely to command the same level of volume in Chicago. Sure enough, 10 games into the season, we have seen him finish inside the top 24 in fantasy scoring only once so far this year. In addition, among the Bears’ receivers, Allen is only second in Expected Fantasy Points behind D.J. Moore. So while Chicago does have a very favorable schedule for wide receivers going forward, it will be difficult to trust Allen as anything more than a flex receiver considering the Bears’ offensive ecosystem. From a dynasty perspective, keep in mind that he is also in the final year of his contract. And with Moore and Odunze locked in for the foreseeable future, I would be shocked if they offered Allen a long-term extension at age 32. In short, his days as a top 50 dynasty wide receiver are well behind him as he faces some uncertainty heading into his 13th season.
Bo Nix – Denver Broncos, QB
Stock Up
Just as we all expected, Bo Nix has been the second-most productive rookie quarterback, ahead of Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. In all seriousness, Nix has been one of the biggest surprises this season. Through 11 weeks, he has been a QB1 in 55% of his games, which is a higher rate than Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray, and Patrick Mahomes. Especially over the last four weeks, Nix has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league. In that timespan, he ranks as the:
- QB10 in EPA per Pass Attempt (0.30)
- QB13 in Success Rate (52%)
- QB4 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (+8.8)
In addition, Nix continues to provide value as a rusher, averaging a 21% rushing share in his last four games. Considering the Broncos have also been one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league (ninth in Pass Rate Over Expected), I expect Nix to continue to produce as a borderline QB1 for the rest of the season. As for his dynasty value, he likely is now in contention to be a top-12 quarterback in ADP. While I still hesitate to put him ahead of Caleb Williams, the value gap between them has declined significantly since the beginning of the season. For now, fantasy managers should feel optimistic about his dynasty outlook as he continues to stand out among this year’s rookie class.
Daniel Jones – New York Giants, QB
Stock Down
Daniel Jones has been officially benched for Tommy “Cutlets” DeVito heading into Week 12. This should not come as a surprise after Jones continued to struggle with his accuracy and efficiency through the first 10 games of the season. For context, among quarterbacks with a minimum of 50 attempts, Jones is the QB29 in EPA per Pass Attempt (0.06), QB20 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (+1.5), and QB23 in Pass Success Rate (46%). While the decision to bench Jones is unlikely to provide a boost to the Giants’ offense, it could improve New York’s long-term outlook as they will look to find a new starting quarterback in 2025. Keep in mind that the Giants could release Jones after this season to save roughly $60M over the next two years. Especially if they secure a top-five pick in next year’s draft, I would not be surprised if they select either Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders to be their new QB1. This also bodes well for Malik Nabers’ outlook as his upside was always going to be capped unless they found a way to improve their quarterback situation.
Prospect Watch List
DJ Giddens is currently one of my favorite middle-round picks in next year’s running back class, a group that is filled with talent and upside across the board. At over 210 pounds, Giddens is one of the most elusive running backs, routinely showcasing his ability to evade tackles with a variety of lateral moves. Especially in tight spaces, his vision and agility enable him to evade defenders and consistently break out into open space. Coupled with a capable receiving skillset, Giddens has the potential to be a three-down option at the next level. While he is now considered one of the most productive running backs in college football, his career did not start on a positive note. He joined Kansas State as a walk-on in 2021 after receiving very little interest from other programs. Even as a redshirt freshman in 2022, he received very few opportunities as the offense ran entirely through Deuce Vaughn. Despite the adversity, Giddens continued to develop, added some weight, and finally received his opportunity to shine in his third season.
As the RB1 for the Wildcats in 2023, he would finish with over 1,500 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns. In 13 games, Giddens accounted for over 25% of Kansas State’s offensive production, finishing with 1.62 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play (60th percentile). It was also encouraging to see him maintain his efficiency (6.1 yards per touch), despite receiving nearly 150 additional touches compared to the previous season. Despite his breakout campaign, Giddens was still considered a day-three prospect in most mock drafts heading into 2024. As a result, he had to elevate his game even further to be considered a potential day-two pick. Through 10 games, we can safely say that his draft stock has improved significantly as Giddens is on pace to set career highs across multiple metrics. In fact, his redshirt junior season currently ranks in the 94th percentile among all drafted running backs since 2013, averaging 2.11 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play.
In short, Giddens is clearly trending in the right direction. While he still needs to prove himself at the combine to cement his value as a day-two pick, there are plenty of positives in his production, efficiency, and film that make him an intriguing option in dynasty drafts next season.
For a list of other prospects to keep an eye on, below are the top wide receivers through Week 12 of the CFB season:
