Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 12
Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Report!
Every week this article will work to highlight the biggest storylines for fantasy football from a dynasty perspective. Since the season never truly ends in a dynasty league, changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s dynasty value beyond this year.
Marvin Elequin is out this week, so I’m back again this week do my best Marvin impression to keep this awesome article series rolling along!
To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Week 11
To keep the dashboard concise, the article will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) are synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between each player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually regress closer to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on.
- Opportunity Share is the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
Rookie Observations after Week 11:
- Another week, another Tank Dell masterpiece for fantasy. Dell is currently sitting at WR15 on the year, but that is more impressive when you consider that he’s had five games either outside the top 45 or out due to injury. Over the last three weeks, Dell has been a top-12 WR in each week, amassing 35 total targets in that stretch. While it’s hard to imagine Dell continuing his current pace throughout the rest of the season, the Texans’ offense is humming right now and I’ll bet he’s on a lot of fantasy championship rosters come season end.
- We can’t have a fair conversation about Dell and not mention CJ Stroud. The second-overall pick in the 2023 draft has continued to be a strong fantasy option even in 1QB leagues, finishing inside the top 12 in six of his last eight games. Stroud currently ranks third in the league in yards per pass attempt amongst players with at least 50 passes thrown on the year, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. If Stroud can maintain that pace throughout the rest of the season, he’ll have the third-highest yards per attempt in the Super Bowl era for a rookie QB with at least 100 attempts, and the highest for a rookie since Ben Roethlisberger back in 2004.
- It was a return to fantasy good graces for Puka Nacua after finishing outside the top-24 WRs in three of his last four games. Getting Matthew Stafford back was a huge factor for Puka’s return to fantasy relevance and his health will probably be the biggest determining factor down the stretch for anybody in the Rams’ receiving game. With 103 targets through 10 games, Puka is still on pace to break the rookie target record of 167 targets and that pace for the record could only increase if Cooper Kupp misses any additional time with his ankle injury.
- Back-to-back strong fantasy finishes for Jayden Reed have really given fantasy managers something to look closer into with the Packers’ rookie. Over the last two weeks, Reed has been much more involved in the passing game for Green Bay with 11 targets coming his way. What’s interesting after Week 11 is the three carries that Reed was given, one of which turned into a 32-yard TD. Whenever a coach seems to be manufacturing touches for a rookie WR, it usually only means good things. If we’re playing NBA JAM rules (who doesn’t?) then Reed is on the cusp of full-on en fuego for fantasy.
- For the fourth straight week, Jahmyr Gibbs has finished as the RB7 or higher on the week, and that includes two straight weeks of having David Montgomery back in the Lions’ lineup. If the assumption that Montgomery is fully healthy is true, then Gibbs has converted Detroit’s backfield into his backfield, with a 57-to-39 snap percentage average over the last two weeks compared to Montgomery. What may be more exciting for fantasy managers is that for the second week in a row, Gibbs has matched Montgomery in red zone opportunities. While both RBs have converted those precious red zone snaps into TDs, Gibbs siphoning some of that work away from Montgomery is a sign of good things to come for the rookie down the stretch of the season.
- After an impressive debut back in Week 8 when he finished as the QB6, it’s been a tough few weeks for Titans QB Will Levis. Levis has failed to reach 200 passing yards in each of his last two games against what should have been good fantasy matchups, but a lot of the Titans’ passing struggles could be attributed to their poor offensive line play. Levis has been sacked 12 times in his four starts and is being sacked on 8.8% of his passing attempts, good enough for the 12th-highest rate in the league. The only players who have been sacked at a higher rate with less than 100 passing attempts are Tyrod Taylor, Tommy DeVito, and Ryan Tannehill.
- Possibly the last chance of seeing Jordan Addison as the WR1 in the Vikings’ offense didn’t return well with the rookie only mustering 44 yards on three receptions. With Justin Jefferson’s return looming, Addison will likely return to the number three option in Minnesota’s passing attack since new QB Joshua Dobbs clearly has eyes for TE TJ Hockenson. Of the first-round WRs taken in the 2023 draft, Addison has easily made the most impact for his team, out-pacing Zay Flowers, Quentin Johnston, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in targets, yards, and TDs on the season.
Dynasty Stock Report
Zay Flowers – Baltimore Ravens – WR
It’s sad to say, but Mark Andrews going down in the Ravens’ offense could start to mean a significant role increase for Zay Flowers in the coming weeks. Flowers already leads Baltimore in targets and 20+ yards receptions on the season, but Andrews filled a large safety blanket for Lamar Jackson that Flowers should be able to help fill. Much has been made about Flowers’ average depth of target he’s seen, but recent weeks have helped him climb over eight yards per target. Depending on how much time Andrews is set to miss down the stretch of the season, it could mean big things for Flowers taking a large step forward in the Ravens’ passing game to be the elite weapon they spent first-round capital on.
It’s officially panic time for Gabe Davis fantasy managers. Davis has managed just two receptions for 56 yards over the last three weeks and has finished inside the top 30 WRs just once in his last six games. After starting the season catching 70% of the balls thrown in his direction, that number is sitting at 48% in his last five games while Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir seem to be seeing their roles grow consistently. At this point, it’s tough to do anything other than hold Davis and hope he can find a home in free agency that could make him interesting enough to trade away.
The perfect storm for Zach Charbonnet to see real fantasy relevance may be presenting itself ahead of Week 12. With Kenneth Walker III doubtful to play in the Seahawks’ Thanksgiving Day game against the 49ers, Charbonnet should see the majority of the work in the Seattle backfield. Charbonnet posted his first top-24 RB finish of his career in Week 11 behind 21 total opportunities after Walker left the game. It may be brief, but a window for Charbonnet to take over more of the work in the Seattle backfield only raises the value of an already high draft capital rookie.
Marvin Mims – Denver Broncos – WR
Despite seeing season highs in snaps over the last two weeks after the Broncos’ bye, Marvin Mims just can’t seem to get the ball in his direction. What’s disappointing is we’ve seen Mims be effective for Denver, finishing inside the top 24 in back-to-back weeks earlier this year. Unfortunately, Mims has a combined 72 receiving yards outside his two big games, so unless there is an injury in the Broncos’ WR corp, Mims might just need to be put on the shelf until next season.
Prospect Watch List
Malik Nabers, LSU – WR
We could be seeing the next great WR come out of LSU in the 2024 draft class with Malik Nabers. Nabers brings everything to the table that we want to see in a fantasy prospect at WR. While Nabers doesn’t have the elite size that top WR prospect Marvin Harrison Jr. possesses, his explosiveness as a route runner and overall athletic ability should put him in the conversation to be the second WR off the board in this class.
When we look at his production thus far in college, we love seeing a breakout season as a sophomore for a player who won’t even be 21 by the time the draft rolls around. Nabers has already surpassed his 2022 receiving totals in receptions, yardage, and total TDs and has at least 100 receiving yards in all but three games this season.
|Season||Receptions Share||Receiving Yards Share||Receiving TDs Share||Total TD Share||Yard Per Pass Attempt|
It’s always nice to see a jump from a breakout season continue into another year, but Nabers has made leaps at LSU across the board with two more games ahead to play. There are plenty of advanced receiving stats to get hot and bothered about, but seeing a yards per pass attempt of 4.2 is an outrageously high number that even eclipses the great MHJ in this class. Nabers’ ability to work in the slot at the NFL level should come fairly easy to him, making him a player who should be able to make a fantasy impact quickly given the right situation. If Nabers can continue to develop his route running ability, he could be a WR1 for an NFL team sooner rather than later.
Come rookie draft season, Nabers should be one of the earliest selections that could have the chance to be a steal if he goes to the right situation.