Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 11
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL.
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape.
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects.
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between a player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share equates to the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Data courtesy of @nflfastR.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 10:
- Bucky Irving continues to be an integral part of the Buccaneers’ offense, once again finishing within the top 30 in Expected Fantasy Points. Despite entering the season as the second option in the Bucs’ backfield, Irving has finished inside the top 36 in Expected Points in all but one game this year. At this point, dynasty managers can confidently plug him into their lineups as a flex-level running back, even with Rachaad White still heavily involved.
- Earlier last week, Sean Payton indicated that Audric Estime would receive more snaps as the season progressed. And while I had my doubts that Payton would keep his word, Estime did lead the Broncos’ backfield for the first time in Week 10. He received 28% of the team’s opportunities, finishing as a top 36 running back in Expected Points. While Javonte Williams still led the team in route participation and target share, Estime should be a startable flex running back going forward if he continues to receive this type of usage
- Malik Nabers’ efficiency has to regress eventually, right? Again, he finished within the top 10 in Expected Fantasy Points but underperformed with -7.2 Fantasy Points Over Expected as Daniel Jones struggled for most of the game. On a positive note, Nabers will face some very favorable matchups in his final seven games, offering hope for a bounce back after the Giants’ bye week.
- For the first time this season, Jalen Coker participated in over 90% of routes. More importantly, Bryce Young targeted him on 31% of his routes, leading to a career-high in target share (32%) and air yards share (50%). While the Panthers’ passing offense continues to be limited by their run-heavy game plan and mediocre quarterback play, Coker will hold WR2 upside as long as he continues to receive such elite usage.
- Jermaine Burton’s usage value is somewhat deceiving as he greatly benefited from a pass-heavy game script facing the Ravens. While he did finish with 9.3 Expected Fantasy Points, he only commanded a 9.3% target share on a 53% route rate. Expect his usage to decline as soon as Tee Higgins returns from injury.
- Ricky Pearsall’s usage value continues to trend in the right direction, participating on 75% of his routes since being activated from injured reserve. In Week 10, he set a career-high in target share (20%) and air yards share (25%), finishing the week as a top-30 wide receiver in usage value. However, because this offense will run through Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel, Pearsall will remain a low-floor, high-upside wide receiver for dynasty managers.
- Ja’Tavion Sanders has finished as a TE1 in three of his last four games. While his improved production has been encouraging, keep in mind that his target share continues to hover below 10%. In other words, while he has the upside to finish as a TE1 due to his higher route participation, he remains a more volatile option for fantasy managers due to his lack of consistent targets.
- If we exclude the game in which he left early due to a rib injury, Jayden Daniels has been a top-13 quarterback in expected fantasy points in all but one game this season, which happened to be in Week 10. Keep in mind that the Commanders had three rushing touchdowns from the one-yard line against the Steelers, which all went to Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols. Typically, you would expect at least one of those opportunities to go to Daniels, who has accounted for 33% of Washington’s one-yard rushing opportunities through 10 weeks. In short, I expect a bounce-back performance from Daniels in Week 11 as the Commanders face the Eagles in a high-scoring matchup.
Dynasty Stock Report
Joe Mixon – Houston Texans, RB
Stock Up
While we typically see running backs decline at age 28, Joe Mixon is breaking that trend this season as he continues to perform at a high level. Especially with the recent injuries to Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, the Texans have relied heavily on the running game to move the ball. As a result, Joe Mixon has been an RB1 in usage value in all but two games this season. Keep in mind that in one of those games he left early due to an ankle injury. If we exclude that matchup, Mixon is averaging:
- 10.7% Target Share
- 73.2% Rushing Share
- 43.3% Opportunity Share
- 18.8 Expected Fantasy Points
With some favorable matchups coming up against Dallas, Tennessee, and Jacksonville, I fully expect Mixon to continue to produce RB1 numbers over the next three weeks. Keep in mind that he also recently signed a contract extension with the Texans, meaning he should be their RB1 for at least another season. Despite that, now might be the perfect opportunity to field some offers for Mixon, who is approaching the end of his prime and is currently still valued as a top-12 dynasty running back. Especially for those no longer in playoff contention, keep in mind that veteran running backs usually hold more value during the season. So if you can find a team willing to trade a first-rounder in exchange for Mixon, I would recommend taking that offer, considering the talent and depth at running back in next year’s rookie class.
Travis Etienne – Jacksonville Jaguars, RB
Stock Down
Unlike Mixon, Travis Etienne’s stock has been trending in the wrong direction. In addition to Jacksonville’s holistic struggles on offense, the emergence of Tank Bigsby has significantly impacted his floor and upside each week. In his last five games, Etienne has finished outside of the top 20 in usage value as he no longer provides the same RB1 upside we have grown accustomed to in recent years. Surprisingly, Etienne did lead the backfield in Week 10, though it remains to be seen if Bigsby’s ankle injury was the reason for the shift in usage. Regardless, even if Etienne manages to retake the backfield, this offense will continue to struggle with Mac Jones under center. From a contractual standpoint, Etienne is also approaching the final year of his rookie contract, providing additional uncertainty about his future. For now, he will likely fall outside the top 20 dynasty running backs as this offense could be without Trevor Lawrence for the rest of the season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Seattle Seahawks, WR
Stock Up
Entering the year, there were doubts regarding Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s breakout potential as the Seahawks re-signed Tyler Lockett to a two-year extension. However, even with D.K. Metcalf and Lockett involved, Smith-Njigba has taken a step forward, averaging a 20% target share and 21% air yards share in their first seven games. As you can see above, even when Metcalf was healthy, there were multiple games where JSN commanded WR2 volume from Geno Smith. And with Metcalf unavailable against the Rams in Week 9, we saw him finish with career-highs in target share (38.2%), air yards share (65%), and half-PPR points (33.5). While his production will likely fluctuate once Metcalf returns, I expect Smith-Njigba to continue to cement himself as the WR2 in one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league (second in Pass Rate Over Expected). And considering Lockett is likely nearing the end of his prime, I expect this offense to run through JSN and Metcalf over the next few years.
Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys, QB
Stock Down
The quarterback position has dealt with multiple devastating injuries this year. That includes Dak Prescott, who is expected to undergo season-ending surgery on his hamstring in the coming weeks. While I still believe this offense could turn things around next year, it does not change the fact that Prescott struggled heavily this season. In eight games, he finished outside of QB1 range in all but two matchups, averaging fewer fantasy points per game than Bo Nix, Sam Darnold, and Trevor Lawrence. From an efficiency standpoint, Prescott is also only the QB22 in EPA per Play (0.018), and the QB24 Completion Percentage Over Expected (-0.9) this season. Long term, however, Prescott should remain the Cowboys’ QB1 for the foreseeable future after signing his lucrative extension this past offseason. Though for him to bounce back, the front office will need to find a way to add additional talent to this offense. Whether that be an upgrade at WR2 or running back, the Cowboys need to find a more dynamic option to play alongside CeeDee Lamb. Until then, this likely presents a buy-low opportunity for fantasy managers as Prescott’s dynasty value will continue to decline as we head toward the offseason.
Prospect Watch List
Tyler Warren started his collegiate career back in 2020, enrolling at Penn State as a tight end and fullback after primarily playing quarterback in high school. As a result, Warren was only marginally involved for the Nittany Lions, redshirting in his first season and totaling 170 scrimmage yards in his first three campaigns. It wasn’t until the 2023 season that he finally began to show his potential. As a redshirt junior, he set career highs in every production metric, accounting for nearly 20% of the team’s receiving offense (yards and touchdowns) while playing alongside Theo Johnson – the Giant’s fourth-round tight end from this year’s draft.
While it was encouraging to see his role evolve, Warren would have only been a day-three pick had he declared for the 2024 draft, likely impacting his decision to stay for another season. And through 11 weeks, his decision to return has greatly paid off with Warren has dominated so far this year. As you can see above, he is averaging an elite 2.84 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt, which would rank in the 98th percentile among all drafted tight ends since 2013. His most impressive performance to date was against USC, where he recorded 17 receptions for 224 receiving yards. This game showcased his receiving ability on screens, intermediate routes, and as a deep threat, highlighting his versatility as a receiver and providing a glimpse into how he could be featured in an NFL offense. As a result, after such a significant improvement in production, Warren currently projects as my TE2 in the 2025 class, ranking in the 92nd percentile right behind Colston Loveland. While draft capital could still impact his dynasty outlook, I would be shocked if he was not selected with day-two capital, cementing his value as a top-15 pick in dynasty rookie drafts next season.
For a list of other prospects to keep an eye on, below are the top tight ends through Week 11 of the CFB season:
