Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 10
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective, as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and one of the Ballers!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position.
For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric closely tied to volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between their actual production and expected fantasy value. This metric will generally fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share represents the percentage of targets and rush attempts a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 9:
- With D’Andre Swift unavailable due to a groin injury, Kyle Monangai took over the Bears’ backfield. In a high-scoring matchup against the Bengals, Monangai received over 30 opportunities, finishing the week as the RB4 in Expected Fantasy Points (usage value) with 23.2. To put that into context, the only RBs to receive a higher usage value than Monangai in Week 9 were Christian McCaffrey, Chase Brown, and Travis Etienne. If Swift were to miss any more time, Monangai should be locked in your lineups as an RB2 with significant upside.
- With Rhamondre Stevenson out of the lineup, TreVeyon Henderson took on an expanded role in the Patriots’ backfield. While Terrell Jennings was the one who found the end zone, it was Henderson who led them in scrimmage yards (89) and usage value, ranking as the RB11 in Expected Fantasy Points (14.3) in Week 9. Even though this is likely temporary, as Stevenson is bound to return in the coming weeks, it was encouraging to see Mike Vrabel trust Henderson as their RB1 for the first time this season.
- Outside of an outlier performance in Week 7, Ashton Jeanty has been an RB1 in Expected Fantasy Points in four of his last five games. With some favorable matchups coming up, Jeanty is primed for some elite performances to close out his rookie year.
Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
- R.J. Harvey continues to take advantage of his limited opportunities, finding the end zone twice despite receiving fewer than 10 opportunities in each of the last two games. Even though J.K. Dobbins remains the RB1, Harvey’s efficient performance could eventually force the Broncos to deploy a more even backfield distribution. We started to see some of that in Week 9, as Harvey participated in a career-high 44% of the routes. Until we see his usage improve, Harvey will remain a low-floor flex option for dynasty managers, ranking as only the RB48 in Expected Fantasy Points over the last two weeks.
- Tetairoa McMillan had just six opportunities against the Packers, as the Carolina Panthers leaned heavily on their running game in a surprisingly competitive matchup. On a positive note, he remained a key focus of their offense, commanding over 30% of the team’s targets and more than 50% of their air yards. Unfortunately, with the Panthers set to face the Saints next week, McMillan’s targets could be limited again, as the game will likely lead to a run-heavy script for Carolina.
- Tory Horton had a breakout performance in Week 9 with 18.8 half-PPR points. He also set a career-high 83% route participation and 16.7% target share with Cooper Kupp unavailable. Unfortunately, that only resulted in 8.2 Expected Fantasy Points. And despite the encouraging performance, this offense will continue to run through Jaxon Smith-Njigba, leaving limited opportunities for Kupp, Horton, and the rest of their pass-catching weapons.
- Colston Loveland just set career-highs in target share (20.6%) and Expected Fantasy Points (9.7) in one of the highest-scoring games of the year against the Bengals. And even though Cole Kmet remains on the roster, we have seen the Bears steadily shift their TE usage in favor of Loveland over the last four weeks. Especially after such a dynamic performance, I would be surprised if Loveland was not the featured TE in Ben Johnson’s offense for the remainder of the year.
Dynasty Stock Report
Sam Darnold – Seattle Seahawks, QB – Stock Up
Entering the year, there were plenty of question marks surrounding the Seattle Seahawks‘ offense after hiring Klint Kubiak and trading away D.K. Metcalf and Geno Smith. Especially with the addition of Sam Darnold, many questioned whether he could replicate his recent success in a new system and with a different supporting cast. Halfway through the year, we can comfortably put those doubts to rest as Darnold has been one of the most efficient QBs this year. For context, in his first eight games with Seattle, he is the:
- QB3 in EPA per Attempt (0.40)
- QB3 in Pass Success Rate (56.5%)
- QB3 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (+10.8%)
- QB4 in Fantasy Points Over Expected (+4.1)
While his efficiency could still regress, Darnold has proven that his season with Minnesota was not a fluke. However, from a dynasty perspective, he will remain a QB2 for multiple reasons. First off, Seattle is still a run-heavy offense, often leading to low-volume games for Darnold. As a result, he has finished outside of QB1 range in 50% of his games. In addition, his contract is non-guaranteed after this year, which means Seattle could move on from him at any point over the next two seasons. While that is unlikely to happen if he maintains his efficiency, it still places some uncertainty on his dynasty outlook. For now, Darnold will remain a high-upside QB2 and a startable asset in SuperFlex leagues.
Geno Smith – Las Vegas Raiders, QB – Stock Down
Speaking of the Seahawks, Seattle traded away Geno Smith to Las Vegas this past offseason in exchange for a third-round pick. In turn, the Raiders signed Smith to a two-year extension, locking him in through the 2027 season. Unfortunately, his arrival has not led to many wins for the Raiders, who are currently last in one of the most competitive divisions in the league. On a positive note, this does position them to make a significant addition in the 2026 NFL draft, likely securing a top-10 pick. Whether they use that asset on a QB remains to be seen. Regardless, Smith is clearly not the long-term option, currently ranking outside of the top 20 in metrics such as Completion Percentage Over Expected (-0.49%) and EPA per Pass Attempt (0.09). And from a fantasy perspective, he has been a QB1 in only two of eight games this season. While his inconsistent performance could prompt the Raiders to pivot in a different direction, they are likely to retain Smith for at least another year, as they are set to incur a $18.5 million cap hit for the 2026 campaign. Regardless, his days as a startable fantasy QB are likely numbered, placing him outside of the top 30 in dynasty ADP going forward.
Rashee Rice – Kansas City Chiefs, WR – Stock Up
Rashee Rice has only played in six full games over the last two seasons due to an ACL injury and a recent six-game suspension. However, when he is healthy and available, Rice has been the unquestioned WR1 for Patrick Mahomes, averaging a 27.4% target share and 13.1 Expected Fantasy Points so far this season. In fact, if we exclude the game in which he tore his ACL, Rice has commanded a +20% target share in 12 straight games. And even though Xavier Worthy has taken a step forward this year (after a stellar end to his rookie season), Rice still has the edge in almost every usage metric. As a result, he has quickly become one of the most valuable assets in dynasty football. With Patrick Mahomes under contract with the Chiefs until the 2031 season, and with Travis Kelce‘s eventual retirement on the horizon, Rice is set to be Kansas City’s top target for the foreseeable future.
Matthew Golden – Green Bay Packers, WR – Stock Down
For the first time since 2002, the Packers used a first-round pick to select a WR in the 2025 draft, adding Matthew Golden to an offense that desperately needed a WR1. However, Golden’s rookie season has been mostly disappointing so far. After nine weeks, he is only averaging a 12.3% target share, ranking third on the team behind Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft. With Kraft’s season-ending injury, there could be more opportunities for Golden moving forward. However, his role has decreased even further with the return of Christian Watson, who had a higher target share and air yards share in Week 8. Even if Golden does not miss any time due to the shoulder injury he suffered in Week 9, his role is likely to remain limited, as the Packers’ offense will continue to revolve around Josh Jacobs and Romeo Doubs. As a result, his dynasty value will continue to decline until he can command a more prominent role in Matt LaFleur’s offense.
Prospect Watch List
One of the more intriguing prospects in the 2026 draft is Vanderbilt’s Eli Stowers. Entering college as the 12th-ranked QB in the 2021 class (ahead of Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe), Stowers started his career at Texas A&M. However, with limited opportunities as their backup QB, he eventually transferred to New Mexico State, where he slowly transitioned to playing TE. While not the most productive season, we saw glimpses of his upside as a receiving threat, averaging a 12.7% receiving yards market share in 2023. His breakout season as a TE came in 2024, after he and Diego Pavia (his QB at New Mexico State) both transferred to Vanderbilt. With now a full year of experience playing the TE position, Stowers dominated throughout the 2024 season, averaging an elite 27.5% receiving yards market share and 2.10 receiving yards per team pass attempt. He would finish the year earning first-team All-SEC honors as one of the most productive TEs in the nation.
So far this season, Stowers has maintained his elite production, accounting for nearly 24% of the team’s receiving production. For context, any season over 2.00 receiving yards per team pass attempt is considered elite for a TE, a threshold Stowers will likely exceed twice in his career. And even though he will enter the league as an older prospect (after five years in college), I would not be shocked if his outstanding production and athletic ability could move him up draft boards this upcoming Spring. Assuming he receives day two capital at the very least, Stowers will be one of the top TE prospects in dynasty drafts next season.
As we approach the 2026 NFL Draft, here is a list of the most productive college football TEs this season:
