Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 10
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL.
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape.
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects.
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between a player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share equates to the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Data courtesy of @nflfastR.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 9:
- Tyrone Tracy continues to take hold of the Giants’ backfield, finishing with a 30% opportunity share and 10.6 Expected Fantasy Points against the Commanders. While he underperformed relative to his usage in Week 9, Tracy has now finished as a top-30 running back in Expected Fantasy Points in four of his last five games.
- Malik Nabers’ production has declined in recent weeks, but his usage remains elite. For context, Nabers has ranked as a top 20 wide receiver in Expected Fantasy Points in each of his last six games. However, he has also finished with negative Fantasy Points Over Expected in his last four matchups. In other words, he is due for some positive regression in the coming weeks.
- While his production has fluctuated, Rome Odunze has now finished as a top 30 wide receiver in usage value in back-to-back games. That led to 12.9 half-PPR points, which ranked WR23 in Week 9. However, with the Bears’ offense struggling to find any consistency, it will be difficult to trust Odunze as anything more than a weekly flex option.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. struggled to produce against the Bears as the Cardinals only threw the ball 20 times. While he did account for 27% of the Cardinals’ targets and 71% (!!) of their air yards, Arizona entered the second half with an 81% win probability, relying heavily on their running game to seal the victory. I expect a much more competitive and pass-heavy game script against the Jets in Week 10, which should lead to more opportunities for MHJ.
- With Noah Fant set to miss even more time due to a groin injury, AJ Barner could be a streamable option for dynasty managers. In his first game as a full-time starter, Barner finished with an 86% route rate and accounted for 21% of the team’s targets. Fant’s status remains in doubt after their bye week, which means Barner could receive another opportunity as the Seahawks’ TE1.
- Theo Johnson continues to lead the Giants’ tight ends in route participation, most recently setting career highs in target share (23%) and air yards share (42%) against the Commanders. While Daniel Jones has rarely targeted the TE position, Johnson remains in TE2 consideration due to his heavy involvement as a route runner.
- For the third week in a row, Bo Nix has been a QB1 in Expected Fantasy Points as the Broncos rank seventh in the league in Pass Rate Over Expected. While he may not be the most efficient quarterback, Nix’s passing volume and rushing ability have led to QB1 production in three of his last five games.
- Just when we thought the Bears’ offense was hitting their stride, they came out of their bye week ranking 30th in EPA per Play (-0.179) and Success Rate (34.8%). Unfortunately, Caleb Williams will face a gauntlet of tough defenses in the coming weeks, which means Williams’ inefficient production could continue as we close out the season.
Dynasty Stock Report
Quentin Johnston – Los Angeles Chargers, WR
Stock Up
It was a quiet rookie year for Quentin Johnston, struggling to find any consistency in his first season with the Chargers. In 17 games, he averaged an 11% target share and 19% air yards share, ranking as the WR70 in Expected Fantasy Points in 2023. However, with Keenan Allen being traded and the recent changes to their coaching staff, there was some optimism that he could turn things around. So far, we are seeing a much more involved and explosive version of Johnston, who has shown flashes of the player that dominated at TCU. If we exclude his Week 6 performance in which he left early due to an ankle injury, Johnston is averaging:
- 11.6 Half-PPR Points
- 20% Target Share
- 33% Air Yards Share
- 20% Targets per Route Run
He is also coming off a career-high 20.0 point performance against the Browns, finishing the week as a WR1. While his production so far has been encouraging, he remains a flex option, ranking as only WR67 in Expected Fantasy Points (6.6) as the Chargers are averaging the third-lowest pace of play in the league. In other words, because Los Angeles is still a run-heavy offense (-3.6% Pass Rate Over Expected), Johnston will need to command a higher target share for us to trust him as a weekly top-24 option. Regardless, his season is still a significant upgrade from his rookie campaign, which provides some hope for a breakout. However, unless we see his usage improve even further, Johnston will remain a volatile, but high-upside flex option for dynasty managers.
Kendre Miller – New Orleans Saints, RB
Stock Down
Kendre Miller has faced a challenging start to his NFL career, struggling with various injuries that have hindered his ability to display his talent on the field. He dealt with ankle and knee injuries during his rookie season, and this year he has been hampered by a nagging hamstring strain, forcing him to miss a total of 16 games since joining the league. Unfortunately, the Saints recently placed Miller on injured reserve, which means he will miss an additional four games before being eligible to return. Considering the Saints have only won two games and are unlikely to make the playoffs, I would not be surprised if we do not see him again until next season. Outside of the injury concerns, there was some hope earlier in the year that Miller could become the heir apparent to Alvin Kamara. However, after signing a two-year extension and showing zero signs of slowing down, Kamara should be the RB1 for the Saints at least through the 2026 season. As a result, Miller may never receive an opportunity to take over the Saints’ backfield as he will be a free agent when Kamara’s contract expires.
Chuba Hubbard – Carolina Panthers, RB
Stock Up
Entering the season, Chuba Hubbard was the forgotten running back in the Panthers’ backfield as the focus was primarily on Jonathon Brooks – their second-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. With Brooks still recovering from his knee injury, Hubbard has elevated his dynasty stock and dominated through the first half of the season. In nine games, Hubbard is averaging:
- 33% Opportunity Share
- 10% Target Share
- 64% Rushing Share
- 12.7 Expected Fantasy Points
He is currently the RB17 in half-PPR points per game, finishing as a top-24 running back in six of his last seven games. Unfortunately, Jonathon Brooks is scheduled to return in the coming weeks, impacting Hubbard’s role in the backfield. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if he continues to operate as the RB1 for at least a few more weeks while they gradually incorporate Brooks into their game plan. Even when he returns, with the recent announcement of a four-year extension, Hubbard should remain a key piece in the Panthers’ backfield, drastically boosting his longterm outlook as a top 30 dynasty running back.
Anthony Richardson – Indianapolis Colts, QB
Stock Down
After entering the season as a top-10 dynasty quarterback, Anthony Richardson’s value has taken a significant hit this year. Especially after being demoted and replaced by Joe Flacco, Richardson will unlikely be valued as anything more than a dynasty QB2 (top 24). From a production standpoint, there were several concerning aspects to his profile. Over the last two years as the Colts’ signal caller, among quarterbacks with a minimum of 100 plays, Richardson is only the QB41 in EPA per Play (-0.046), QB51 in Success Rate (39.8%), and the QB61 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (-11.9). The only quarterbacks with a worse efficiency profile in that timespan were P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. While some of that can be attributed to play-calling, it is still discouraging that we have seen very little progress over the last two years. As his value continues to decline, I would not be opposed to sending out trade offers in your dynasty leagues. Even with his recent struggles, Richardson is still one of the most athletic prospects in recent history with an impressive ability to generate explosive plays, albeit very inconsistently. And considering Bryce Young received a second chance after being benched for Andy Dalton earlier in the year, Richardson could receive another opportunity as the starter before the end of the season.
Prospect Watch List
Tre Harris entered his collegiate career as a two-star recruit, committing as a wide receiver at Louisiana Tech after primarily playing quarterback in high school. Because of the transition to a new position, it took Harris a few years to make an impact. His role would expand in 2021, improving his receiving yards market share to 18% in 12 games. However, his breakout campaign would not happen until his true junior season, setting career highs in every metric – including receiving yards market share (29.8%), receiving yards per team pass attempt (2.20), and weighted dominator rating (31.8%). After progressing consistently throughout his three years at Louisiana Tech, Harris transferred to Ole Miss as a senior, where he would further elevate his game. As you can see above, he made an immediate impact on the Rebels’ offense, accounting for nearly 30% of their entire receiving production in 2023. More importantly, his receiving yards per team pass attempt improved to 2.62, which ranks in the 73rd percentile among all drafted wide receivers since 2013. While many expected Harris to declare for the NFL draft, he instead returned for a fifth season at Ole Miss. And through 10 weeks, that decision seems to be paying off as Harris leads the SEC in receiving yards and receptions despite only playing seven games. In addition, his 4.27 receiving yards per team pass attempt is truly elite, ranking in the 99th percentile since 2013. So even though returning for a fifth season could have hurt his draft stock, Harris has done nothing but improve his value halfway through the season.
Keep in mind that we rarely see five-year prospects break out in the NFL. From 2013 to 2023, 95 wide receiver prospects were drafted with at least five years of collegiate experience. Only nine have broken out so far at a rate of 9.4%. It is worth noting that of those nine breakouts, eight of them were drafted with day two capital. In other words, if Harris is not drafted within the first three rounds, his odds of producing for fantasy football will be slim. In addition, of the nine that broke out in the NFL, a majority of them produced at a high level in college. That includes players like John Brown, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Jayden Reed, and Tank Dell. And based on his production profile over the last three years, Harris undoubtedly checks that box. In short, while his dynasty profile is far from perfect, Harris still projects as a 79th-percentile prospect in my rookie model, largely driven by his dominant 2024 campaign. And despite a wider range of outcomes, I would still draft him in the second round of dynasty drafts, especially if he receives day two capital.
For a list of other prospects to keep an eye on, below are the top wide receivers through Week 10 of the CFB season:
