Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 10
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report!
This article will highlight the most important storylines from a dynasty perspective. Since the season never truly ends in a dynasty league, changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s dynasty value beyond this year.
To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Week 9
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) are synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between each player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually regress closer to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on.
- Opportunity Share is the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
Rookie Observations after Week 9:
- Bijan Robinson had a disappointing game in Week 9, scoring -5.6 Fantasy Points Below Expected. However, what’s even more concerning is his decreasing usage in the Falcons’ offense. In the first four weeks, Bijan was a prominent part of the team, with an opportunity share of over 30% in three games. But since Week 5, he has not been able to cross that threshold as Tyler Allgeier continues to take up a larger role in the offense. While he is clearly the most talented running back on his team, Bijan can only do so much if Arthur Smith is unwilling to feature him in their offense.
- Tank Dell had a career game in Week 9, averaging a 29% target share and 53% air yards share against the Buccaneers. He finished the week with 20.0 Expected Fantasy Points, which ranked WR2 behind only CeeDee Lamb. While his performance was extremely impressive, keep in mind that C.J. Stroud has done an excellent job of spreading the ball around as Dell, Nico Collins, and Robert Woods have all averaged over 18% of the team’s targets through nine weeks. As a result, all Texans’ receivers remain somewhat volatile for fantasy purposes due to their inconsistent volume
- Following Kirk Cousins‘ injury, many fantasy football managers were unsure whether they should continue to include Jordan Addison in their lineups. With Joshua Dobbs taking over, there was always a possibility that Addison’s production would be negatively affected. However, despite only scoring 7.7 fantasy points, the results were still encouraging. If we look at Dobbs’ 30 pass attempts, Addison led all Vikings’ wide receivers with a 21% target share and 41% air yards share. While he remained the second option behind T.J. Hockenson, his usage should keep him in high-end flex territory moving forward.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba has quietly put together multiple flex-level performances, finishing in the top 36 in each of his last three games. More importantly, his usage continues to improve as he just set career highs in target share (28%) and route participation (88%). While he still profiles as a risky, flex receiver, it has been encouraging to see his improvement after a slower start to his rookie year.
- Dalton Kincaid’s dynasty stock continues to rise. Over the last two weeks, he has averaged an impressive 91% route participation and 22% targets per route run. In addition, he also ranks as the TE6 in Expected Fantasy Points (12.2) in his last two games, ahead of players like Cole Kmet and Mark Andrews. In short, as long as Knox is out of the lineup, Kincaid should continue to perform as a TE1 for fantasy managers.
- While Luke Musgrave did set a career-high in fantasy points with 12.6, about half of his production was driven by his efficiency (+6.10 FPOE). As you can see above, he only received a 16% target share and a total of 6.5 Expected Points, meaning that his production is likely to regress negatively in the coming weeks.
- C.J. Stroud is establishing himself as a top-tier QB1 with his efficient performances. He currently ranks as the QB9 in EPA per Play (+0.152) through nine weeks of the season, excluding garbage time. Additionally, his Week 9 performance was truly historic, as he scored 40.8 fantasy points – the highest among rookie quarterbacks since 2000.
Dynasty Stock Report
Jahmyr Gibbs – Detroit Lions, RB
Coming out of Alabama, Jahmyr Gibbs was one of the most versatile prospects in his class, averaging over 17% receiving yards market share and 1.61 yards per team play. Combined with his athletic profile and first-round draft capital, Gibbs was graded as a 96th-percentile running back prospect and was far and away the RB2 of this class. With that in mind, it was never a question of whether he was talented enough to produce. Instead, fantasy managers were concerned that he would receive the D’Andre Swift treatment and never receive a full workload to showcase his talent. However, with David Montgomery’s recent injury, Gibbs has dominated with his expanded opportunity. In his last two games, he is the:
- RB2 in Expected Fantasy Points (19.9)
- RB4 in Fantasy Points Over Expected (+5.3)
- RB6 in Opportunity Share (37.1%)
- RB1 in half-PPR points (25.3)
In other words, Gibbs has been one of the most productive and efficient running backs for fantasy football. And even though his usage will fluctuate when Montgomery returns, it was still encouraging to see him produce at such a high level when given the opportunity. Keep in mind that Montgomery’s contract has a very low dead cap starting in 2025, which means he could easily be traded or released. So even if this remains a committee backfield, I expect Montgomery to be out of the equation in two seasons, paving the path for Gibbs to be an RB1 in the final three years of his rookie deal.
After dominating in the final year of his collegiate career and being selected in the second round of the NFL draft, Terrace Marshall was a popular dynasty pick in 2021. Unfortunately, he has not lived up to expectations in his first two and half years in the league. Naturally, with Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore on the roster, Marshall had to battle for targets over the last two years. However, if there was a year for him to break out, it would be this season. Not only are Moore and McCaffrey no longer on the team, but his primary competition was an older Adam Thielen and a rookie in Jonathan Mingo. And through nine weeks, Marshall has only averaged 11.4% target share, operating as the fourth option for Bryce Young. More importantly, a wide receiver’s third season is a significant benchmark for dynasty purposes. From 2000 to 2021, nearly 78% of all wide receiver breakouts occurred within their first three years in the league. In other words, if Marshall is unable to salvage his 2023 season, there is a very slim chance he ever develops into a fantasy-relevant receiver. In that case, I expect his dynasty ADP to continue to decline well below his current value of WR86 (per Keep Trade Cut).
Compared to the depth of the 2023 tight end class, 2022 was very underwhelming as we only saw four selected in the first three rounds. However, do not forget that it included one of the most productive prospects in recent history in Trey McBride, who averaged nearly 40% of Colorado State’s receiving yards in his final two collegiate seasons. Coupled with his early-round draft capital, McBride graded in the 93rd percentile in my rookie model. For context, tight ends that grade within the +90th percentile range have historically broken out at a 90% rate. Other recent prospects who fell in that range include Dalton Kincaid, Michael Mayer, and Sam LaPorta.
Unfortunately, McBride’s breakout was put on hold as he played behind Zach Ertz for most of last season. However, with Ertz’s recent injury, McBride has taken full advantage as the Cardinals’ TE1. Over the last two weeks, McBride has averaged a 33.9% target share, 47.1% air yards share, and 75% route participation. And while his last game was not as productive as his Week 8 breakout, I expect his production to improve as Kyler Murray is set to return this week. Keep in mind that Ertz is a potential cut candidate after this season, with zero dollars guaranteed and significant cap savings tied to his contract for 2024. Therefore, if McBride continues to perform at a high rate, he should be the unquestioned TE1 for this offense after this season.
As Borg, Betz, and Mike mentioned in a recent episode of the dynasty podcast, Chigoziem Okonkwo was a rapid riser in the dynasty community throughout the offseason. According to Keep Trade Cut, he peaked as high as TE11 in ADP but has since fallen back down to earth to TE19. While there are still plenty of games left this year, it has not looked encouraging for Okonkwo, who has yet to finish as a TE1 this season. In addition, from a usage standpoint, he has ranked outside of the top 12 in Expected Fantasy Points in all but one week. This implies that he is simply not receiving enough usage to justify starting in your lineups. Longterm, the Titans have a relatively low investment in Okonkwo as they only drafted him in the fourth round. As a result, I would not be surprised if they either signed or drafted a tight end next off-season. This is also the perfect example of why draft capital matters for dynasty football. Historically, we have only seen 6% of fourth-round tight ends break out since 2013, making Okonkwo a massive outlier if he can turn this season around. At this rate, we have to temper our expectations for a player who has underperformed to start his career.
Prospect Watch List
While there are still plenty of question marks regarding the upcoming 2024 rookie class, there is one thing for certain: Marvin Harrison Jr. is the unquestioned WR1 and is arguably the first pick in all non-Superflex leagues.
Harrison Jr. is an exceptional wide receiver prospect who checks nearly all the boxes. He is a skillful route runner who boasts elite athletic abilities. Moreover, we prefer dynasty prospects who have been productive since the beginning of their careers. Harrison Jr. meets this criterion as he has been an outstanding producer since his sophomore year, averaging over 3.00 receiving yards per team pass attempt in 2022. He has continued his impressive performance this season, accounting for 36% of Ohio State’s receiving yards and 3.26 receiving yards per team pass attempt in ten weeks. In other words, he has been Ohio State’s focal point for two consecutive seasons and is currently one of the most productive Power 5 receivers in the country.
To no surprise, Harrison Jr. is now projected to be selected in the first five picks of the NFL draft. Coupled with his elite profile, he is on pace to be one of my highest-graded wide receivers in my rookie model. As of right now, he sits as a 98th-percentile prospect, with the potential to move even higher depending on how the offseason unfolds. To further put his profile into perspective, from 2010 to 2020, below is a list of all early-declare wide receivers selected in the first round who landed in the +95th percentile in my model:
- Dez Bryant
- Julio Jones
- A.J. Green
- Sammy Watkins
- Mike Evans
- Amari Cooper
- Marquise Brown
- CeeDee Lamb
- Jerry Jeudy
Every single one of these wide receivers broke out within their first three years in the NFL, with several of them producing multiple WR1 campaigns. Barring an injury, Harrison Jr. should be the next receiver to join this impressive list. As a result, I feel very confident in his profile, making him one of the safest picks in dynasty leagues.