Dynasty RBs: Six Trade Targets to Consider (Fantasy Football)
On Thursday’s Fantasy Footballers podcast, Andy, Mike, and Jason shared a few dynasty RBs that they would trade for or away.
Here is the quick rundown for those players as well as some potential trade offers you could make in your dynasty leagues. Want more? Mike’s Dynasty Trade Targets list is featured in the Dynasty Pass, part of the Ultimate Draft Kit+.
Nick Chubb– 27.4 years old
Perhaps we forget how dominant Chubb was last year at the beginning of the year as the RB1 from Weeks 1-8. He tailed off along with the rest of the Browns offense once Deshaun Watson took over. Regardless, he’s arguably the best pure “runner of the football” in the NFL. He leads the NFL in 10+ and 15+ yard runs over the last two years and the efficiency has been with him his entire five years in the NFL. The backfield is completely his with only Jerome Ford and Demetric Felton on the roster. The team could sign a veteran but it’s clear they view Chubb as the alpha and main cog of this offense. He is under contract for two more years and should be treated as a solid RB1 for both years in dynasty. If you are in win-now mode, consider trading for Chubb now if you need a solid RB to take you over the top. The Chubb manager might be thinking about trading him before he ages out but we still think he has multiple years of high-end fantasy production left. You could possibly get him for a 1st round rookie pick or try cross-positionally with someone like Darren Waller or Chris Godwin.
J.K. Dobbins– 24.3 years old
“Two Legs”, as he’s affectionately known as on the podcast, has averaged 5.9 yards per carry in his career. He enters a contract year with the Ravens at only 24 years old. He still has a lot of football left in him and the Ravens offense could be a juggernaut in 2023 with Lamar Jackson and new OC Todd Monken. Believe in the TDs, the efficiency, and the fact Dobbins should be in store for a 3-year contract as a free agent next year. Think what Miles Sanders or David Montgomery got this past year. Dobbins managers could be over him after a major injury in 2021 and a slow burn in 2022. You could get him for another young RB (Dameon Pierce) on a worse offense or perhaps a late 1st round rookie pick.
Alexander Mattison– 24.9 years old
Mattison is back in Minnesota on a 2-year deal, which for dynasty managers who have been holding him for a while, seems like a massive disappointment. Most were hopeful he’d land a lucrative deal in free agency to be an RB1. Instead, he’s back in purple and gold as Dalvin Cook‘s backup…or is he? Minnesota can save about $6 million by moving on from Cook post-June 1st. If they do, Mattison’s value will skyrocket. In eight career games with 15+ opportunities (aka when Dalvin was out), he averaged 16.9 fantasy points per game. That’ll do! Trade for him now while his value is depressed. Plus, even if they do hold onto Cook, Mattison is likely to get a handful of spot starts as an RB1 when Cook inevitably misses a couple of starts.
Listing someone as a trade-away doesn’t necessarily mean that we don’t like that player.
Jonathan Taylor– 24.3 years old
It’s hard to believe but Taylor is entering the final year of his rookie deal. With a new head coach (Shane Steichen) and new offensive play-calling philosophy, it’s not a guarantee he is a Colt next year. He’s young enough that the landing spot for his second NFL contract might not matter as much but it is worth exploring dealing with the young stud RB for a haul right now. Rookie QB Anthony Richardson brings some chaos into the mix, especially with his size as a goal-line rusher. There’s an excellent article on the site (Are Dual-Threat QBs a Problem for RBs?) detailing the historical numbers of rushing QBs and their RB teammates. The simple analysis is that the ceiling is much lower for RBs with elite rushing QBs. All of that to say, that might be a bit of an overreaction considering how great JTT is at football. Trading away Taylor is hoping for either a young RB/WR + a future 1st or multiple 1sts.
Saquon Barkley– 26.3 years old
Last year was magical for Saquon totaling the 4th most carries, 6th most targets among RBs, and the 3rd most expected fantasy points. It was a major boost for his dynasty value but Jason is cautioning people to trade him now for a haul. The Giants franchised him as it looks like a long-term deal probably won’t be worked out. He could be amazing in 2023 but beyond is a great mystery. Letting another manager explore that journey at his age is worth pursuing especially if you can get multiple 1sts for him. That might be a bit too high to reach but a 1st + another viable piece (Jahan Dotson) seems more than advisable if you are looking to turn your roster over.
Aaron Jones– 28.5 years old
Let’s clarify Jones’ outlook moving forward as he has two years left on his contract with clear out for the Packers in 2024. He’ll turn 29 years old this year and if we’ve seen any sort of historical indicator as of late, it’s that older RBs don’t end up finishing out their contract extensions. See the ghosts of former fantasy glory: Todd Gurley II, David Johnson, and Le’Veon Bell whose values fell off a cliff. If your team is in a win-now mode, you can be in a holding pattern but you should definitely be shopping him this summer and as your league trade deadline approaches in the fall. A.J. Dillon’s thighs are banging down the door as it was clear in the last two months of the season Jones wore down. The Packers have so many question marks so if you can trade Jones on the laurels of past success, do it. Who knows if Jordan Love is actually any good at football or if he targets the RB position at all?