2024 NFL Draft Rookie Profile: WR Malik Nabers (Fantasy Football)
There is a consensus on the top three wide receivers this year, and draft analysts say they are all close in talent. All three players are likely top 10 picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. For fantasy purposes, I believe Malik Nabers is closer to WR1 than WR3, but time will tell how that develops. There is just so much to like about Nabers’ prospect profile and film, so with that said, let’s take a look at why there is so much hype around Nabers heading towards the 2024 draft.
College Production Profile
Malik Nabers was a highly touted recruit in the 2021 class. 24/7 Sports ranked him as a four-star recruit and the 19th overall wide receiver. Nabers committed to LSU, the school many call WR-U, and has been a significant factor in the passing game over the past two seasons. In his freshman season, Nabers saw plenty of playing time and finished fourth on the team in receiving yards.
| Year | Team | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Touchdowns |
| 2021 | LSU | 28 | 417 | 4 |
| 2022 | LSU | 72 | 1,017 | 3 |
| 2023 | LSU | 89 | 1,569 | 14 |
He stepped up in his sophomore year, outperforming Kayshon Boutte on his way to a 1,017-yard season (26.98% of total team receiving yards). His performance in his sophomore season gave him a breakout age of 19.1 years old, which is in the 86th percentile on PlayerProfiler. In his final season at LSU, Nabers exploded with 89 receptions (31% of team receptions), 1,569 receiving yards (35.6% of team receiving yards), and 14 touchdowns. He was the clear number-one option on the LSU offense as the second leading receiver, Brian Thomas Jr., had 68 receptions (23.8% of team receptions) for 1,177 yards (26.7% of team receiving yards) and 17 touchdowns. Brian Thomas Jr. is also a projected first-round draft pick, so it’s impressive that Nabers had such high percentages on team receptions and receiving yards.
NFL Next Gen Grades
One of the many metrics I use when looking at prospects would be NFL Next Gen grades. They have an overall grade, which combines a production grade with an athleticism grade. The production grade is self-explanatory, but the athleticism grade does matter regarding whether or not the player opts into the NFL combine or their team’s pro day. Because certain players opt out of performing at the combine, their grades are impacted by that, but it’s still a good indication of future success when used correctly.
The above list includes receivers drafted in the first two rounds with a 90 or higher production grade who declared early, going back to 2014. Malik Nabers received an elite NFL Next Gen grade of 92 and an overall production grade of 96. Wide receivers from this list had solid success at the next level, with 33.3% posting a top-five season, 55.5% posting a top-12 season, and 77.7% posting a top-24 season. Context is always key in player situations, and we know Jameson Williams and Sammy Watkins suffered injuries that could have played a significant part in their lack of production in their careers.
Important Metric Thresholds
The above chart shows several other metrics relevant to future NFL success. The chart compares NFL wide receivers drafted in the first five rounds since 2014. The PFF data, which includes first downs per route run and yards per route, goes back to 2018. The Reception Perception tiers go back to the 2021 class. Malik Nabers is green across the board, meeting all thresholds you like to see in rookie wide receivers. Among the 2024 class, Nabers ranks:
- WR2 in career 1st downs per route run
- WR2 in career EPA per team pass attempt (games played)
- WR3 in career yards per route run
- WR3 in career yards per team pass attempt
- WR4 in career receiving yards market share (games played)
While not at the top of the class in these major categories, he is behind Marvin Harrison Jr. in most of them, which is understandable given the level of talent in the wide receiver class. Ryan Heath recently developed the first downs per route run metric, which has shown to be predictive. EPA stands for Expected Points Added and shows how an individual player can add value when helping their team score.
Measurables
| Height | Weight | 40-yard Dash | Vertical | 3-Cone |
| 6’0” | 200 lbs | 4.35 | 42″ | – |
Malik Nabers opted not to run at the NFL combine but did perform at his pro day. At 6’0″ tall and 200 pounds, Nabers is the optimal size for the next level. While we know a fast 40-yard dash time does not typically mean much, Nabers’ 4.35 40-time on his pro day confirms that he is fast and explosive, which is what we see when we watch him play. Nabers 42″ vertical is within the 98th percentile, and his hand size is in the 72nd percentile. Nabers checks all the boxes from a physical standpoint.
What’s on Tape
Games Watched: 2023 – FSU, Alabama, Florida, Auburn, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
1. Missed Tackles Forced and Yards After the Catch
One of Nabers’ strengths is forcing missed tackles and gaining yards after the catch. While watching the film, you see this skill set frequently as he is tough to bring down on contact but is also elusive and explosive in the open field. Among wide receivers drafted in the first two rounds since 2018, Nabers would rank second in career missed tackles forced.
In 2023, Nabers was sixth in the nation in yards after the catch (first among wide receivers with an average depth of target greater than 10). That is significant because he’s not just picking up yardage on receptions from designed screens or short throws. Nabers also creates splash plays after the catch on intermediate and deep routes. He is incredible with the ball in his hands and was able to turn curl routes into long gains by making the first man miss and then exploding up the field. He is always a threat to turn a regular play into a big one and should also remain a threat to defenses at the NFL level.
2. Home Run Threat
We’ve already seen what he can do after the catch, but Nabers is also a deep threat that can take the top off the defense. Per PFF, Nabers was second in the nation in receiving yards on targets of 20+ yards and third in touchdowns (nine). While watching the film, there were several clips of Nabers making cornerbacks look lost on his way to a big gain or touchdown. Below is a perfect example of Nabers’ crafty route running. He gets the defensive back to bite on the fake, then proceeds to go outside, making the defender have to turn around, and at that point, it’s a wrap because of Nabers’ speed. The ball was a little underthrown, but it was a deep pass, and Nabers made a play on it for the long gain.
3. Ball Tracking and Adjustments
The slot fade was a common route for Nabers to run, and he ran it well. We’ve discussed how he is a deep threat, but it’s not just about burning the defender. He has also shown the ability to track the ball and adjust his body to complete the catch near defenders.
4. Success Against Both Man and Zone
Whether it was burning the man defender guarding him or finding the soft spot in the zone for a big gain, Nabers was elite at both. He earned a 90+ PFF grade against man and zone, which was apparent while watching the tape. He repeatedly got open in the middle of the field and out routes towards the sideline on his way to being one of four wide receivers in this class to post three or more yards per route run against both man and zone defenses (Marvin Harrison Jr., Troy Franklin, and Malik Washington).
5. Winning When Lined Up Out Wide
One of the “weaknesses” discussed about Nabers is that he primarily played out of the slot. Per PFF, he was in the slot 53.6% of the time in 2023, and 62.6% of his receiving yards came from the slot. While some may be considered a negative to play primarily in the slot, we should not be too worried about that in Nabers’ case. He did demonstrate the ability to win when lining up outside. The clip showing his deep-threat ability was a great reference for his production while lining up wide, so I am using another clip that shows he can get open. This time, it wasn’t a completed catch, but it demonstrates his ability to burn outside corners.
Just because you line up in the slot in college does not mean you cannot play outside in the NFL. Former LSU Tiger Justin Jefferson is an excellent example of this. Jefferson played in the slot 98% of the time in his final collegiate season but has lined up out wide 68% of the time in all four of his NFL seasons. Also, even if Nabers does play in the slot primarily at the next level in today’s NFL, he can still be an elite wide receiver.
What’s Not on Tape
1. Attacking 50/50 Balls Successfully
If I had to nitpick Malik Nabers’ game, my one complaint is that he struggled to catch 50/50 balls consistently and didn’t successfully attack the ball in the air when covered. I believe he has the ability and skillset, but there is room for improvement in this area to be more consistent. He can box out the defender, preventing turnovers, but does not frequently come down with the catch.
Fantasy Outlook
The landing spot will likely matter when projecting his fantasy outlook in his rookie season. It will be interesting to see what the Cardinals and Chargers do in the draft because they would be the ideal landing spot for a wide receiver like Nabers. Should he go to a team with an established stud quarterback, it’ll be wheels up immediately. In dynasty, Nabers will be an elite asset regardless of the team that drafts him. Nabers should be in the discussion as a top-two pick in 1QB leagues and a top-three or four pick in SuperFlex leagues. He should command a good enough target share wherever he goes and be fantasy-relevant in his rookie season, with a top-24 season reasonably within reach. The true breakout likely happens in year two or three. Stud wide receivers have become some of the most valuable assets in dynasty, and I expect Nabers to enter that category early in his career.