2024 NFL Draft Rookie Profile: TE Brock Bowers (Fantasy Football)
Compared to last year, the 2024 class of tight ends lacks significant depth. While a few intriguing prospects could develop into impact players in the NFL, there is a significant drop-off after the top two prospects in this upcoming class. As a result, you are unlikely to find someone like Sam LaPorta or Luke Musgrave in the middle rounds of dynasty drafts this year. However, while this class lacks depth, it has arguably the most accomplished tight end prospect since Kyle Pitts. That would be Georgia’s Brock Bowers, who enters the league as one of the most productive collegiate tight ends over the last decade. As the clear TE1 of this class, Bowers should be firmly entrenched as a top-10 pick in dynasty drafts this season.
Editor’s Note: This article is part of our Rookie Profile series going on until the 2024 NFL Draft. For more on each rookie, check out Andy, Mike, and Jason’s exclusive rookie rankings and the production profiles found only in the Dynasty Pass, part of the UDK+ for 2024.
College Production Profile
Bowers entered his collegiate career as a four-star recruit and received multiple offers from some of the top programs in the nation. He would ultimately commit to Georgia, where he would immediately receive an opportunity to contribute as Darnell Washington injured his foot and Arik Gilbert was unavailable due to personal reasons. As a result, Bowers received plenty of opportunities as a true freshman, performing at a truly elite level. He accounted for 23.8% of the team’s receiving yards and finished with 2.23 Receiving Yards per Team pass Attempt. To put that into context, since 2010, we have not seen a single true freshman tight end exceed 2.00 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt. As a result, Bowers’ season would rank in the 99.99th percentile among all freshman campaigns over the last decade.
Bowers would maintain his elite production into his sophomore year as he set career highs in receiving yards, rushing yards, and total receptions. However, with Darnell Washington taking on an expanded role in 2022, Bowers’ team-related metrics did take a slight hit. His 21.2% receiving yards market share was the lowest of his career, and his 1.91 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt experienced a 14% decline. Regardless, most tight ends do not even reach these thresholds at any point in their careers as Bowers was still one of the most productive tight ends in the nation as a sophomore.
As a junior, Bowers would have to adjust to a new quarterback as Carson Beck took over as the QB1. However, that did not significantly impact his production as his metrics would improve from the previous year. He would once again exceed the 2.00 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt threshold, accounting for 26% of the team’s receiving production in his final season. Bowers would conclude his career as one of the most accomplished tight ends in recent history, becoming only the second tight end since 2010 (alongside Hunter Henry) to average over 20% receiving yards market share in every season. Furthermore, below are the production percentiles for each of his seasons using the predictive metric of Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt.
- Year 1: 99th Percentile
- Year 2: 95th Percentile
- Year 3: 94th Percentile
In short, Bowers possesses an elite production profile that we rarely see from a tight end prospect. Combined with his projected first-round capital, Bowers should immediately be considered a dynasty TE1 as soon as he enters the NFL.
Measurables
Height
Weight
40-Yard Dash
Vertical
Broad Jump
6’3”
243 lbs
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–
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There is very little to highlight in this segment as Brock Bowers opted out of every drill at the NFL combine. While it would have been encouraging to see him dominate in each of those drills, his lack of participation should not change our opinion. In addition, a potential criticism highlighted by the draft community is his below-average frame at only 6’3” and 243 pounds. While Bowers is slightly lighter than most tight ends, keep in mind that Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid both weighed in only two to three pounds heavier. As for his speed and acceleration, his film is filled with plays that highlight his athleticism. In fact, Cory Yates from Reel Analytics shared on Twitter that Bowers was clocked at a max speed of 21.5 miles per hour last season. For context, that would have been the highest max speed among all tight ends in the 2023 season per Next Gen Stats. To add to that, Bowers also recorded a 4.50 40-time back in 2019, impressing several scouts at the Nike Sparq camp. So despite opting out of the combine, there are plenty of other data points confirming that Bowers is athletic enough to succeed in the NFL.
What’s on Tape
As part of my prospect evaluation, I watch between four to six games of film to better understand each player’s strengths and weaknesses. Below are my observations on Brock Bowers’ film.
Games Viewed: 2023 vs. Auburn, 2023 vs. Kentucky, 2023 vs. UT Martin, 2023 vs. Tennessee
1. Elite Acceleration that Led to Explosive Plays
I alluded to this above, but I am not concerned that Bowers did not participate in the NFL combine as his film is filled with plays like the one below. Simply put, he can reach a level of speed that most tight ends do not possess. He has a quick first step that can often create early separation in his routes, and the top-end speed to consistently get behind the defense on deeper routes. Especially after the catch, Bowers is an immediate mismatch against most linebackers and safeties as he can use his unique blend of size, speed, and acceleration to put the defense at a disadvantage.
2. Success Against Zone and Man Coverage
Bowers is such an impressive route runner, considering his size and frame. His footwork and cuts are efficient, creating consistent separation with his unique ability to decelerate and reaccelerate out of his breaks. Combined with his 243-pound frame, Bowers is tough to defend in single coverage. Against the zone, he found plenty of success as well. Bowers knows how to exploit the soft spot of the defense, constantly adjusting his routes to create an opening for his quarterback. We see these traits in the play below against Tennessee. Against zone, Bowers adjusts the depth of the out route to create a brief window for Carson Beck to make the throw, leading to a crucial first down.
3. Yards Created After the Catch
Bowers is one of the most dynamic receivers after the catch last season. If you try to bring him down with arm tackles, Bowers will more than likely brush them off for significant yards after contact. He also knows how to vary his speed to avoid contact, stacking multiple cuts and hesitation moves to make defenders miss. Georgia leveraged this skillset frequently as they often used him on short, play-action passes, allowing him to create yards with the ball in his hands.
The play below against UT Martin is one of my favorites in his film. Multiple defenders had the opportunity to take him down. Instead, Bowers uses an array of moves to evade multiple tackles for significant yardage.
What’s Not on Tape
1. Consistent Opportunities as a Blocker
Because of Georgia’s heavy reliance on Bowers’ receiving prowess, he almost always ran route when the Bulldogs were passing the ball. As a result, he rarely received consecutive opportunities as a blocker. Even when he was in-line or in the backfield, Bowers was still often used as a receiver on the play. As a blocker, however, Bowers was surprisingly consistent. Especially as an in-line blocker, he displayed physicality, quickness, and a willingness to take contact against the pass rusher. And while he did struggle at times against quicker defenders (primarily corners and safeties), Bowers is more than capable of being a blocker at the next level. Even then, it may not matter considering his projected, heavy usage as a route runner in the passing game.
2. Usage as a Traditional Tight End
Brock Bowers was the TE1, WR1, and the primary receiving option for the Georgia Bulldogs. Because of his unique blend of efficient route running and size, he was rarely used as a traditional tight end, instead lining up all over the field. Unlike some tight ends in this class who primarily operated on short routes as the check-down option, Bowers was consistently leveraged on intermediate and long-developing routes. That is exactly what we want to see out of a tight end as deep targets are the most valuable opportunities from a fantasy football perspective. Assuming his usage remains unchanged at the next level, I would be shocked if Bowers did not produce at least one TE1 campaign within his first three seasons.
Fantasy Outlook
As you may have already surmised, Bowers is one of the most elite prospects we have seen in recent history. He passes the eye test based on his film, while also checking every box from an analytical perspective. Combined with his projected draft capital (likely a top-15 pick), Bowers should be the unquestioned TE1 of the 2024 class. Keep in mind, however, that most tight ends do not break out until their second season (32% since 2010), which means we should temper our expectations in his rookie year. Regardless, I would be shocked if he did not break out by the end of his second campaign, especially if he lands on a team without an established TE1.
As for his overall collegiate profile, Bowers is in truly elite company. In fact, my rookie model has him ranked as a 99th percentile prospect dating back to 2013. The only tight end to grade higher than him was Kyle Pitts, who possesses a very similar profile. To put this into context, every tight end that has graded in the +90th percentile in my model has produced at least one TE1 season in their career. This should instill plenty of confidence in dynasty managers that Bowers should return immediate value as a prospect. And considering his elite profile and upside, Bowers should be firmly entrenched as a top-eight pick in dynasty drafts this season.