2024 NFL Draft Rookie Profile: RB Audric Estime (Fantasy Football)
The 2024 running back class is considered to be one of the weakest in recent memory, lacking the depth and elite talent found in previous years. While there are a few standout prospects, the overall group is characterized by a lack of elite playmakers. There are no clear-cut, first-round talents like Bijan Robinson or Saquon Barkley in this year’s draft, and most of the top prospects are projected to go in the middle rounds. Despite the lack of top-tier talent, there are still several intriguing prospects in the 2024 class, including Notre Dame’s Audric Estime. A physical runner who produced at a high level in his final two seasons, Estime might be one of the best values at his current ADP.
Editor’s Note: This article is part of our Rookie Profile series going on until the 2024 NFL Draft. For more on each rookie, check out Andy, Mike, and Jason’s exclusive rookie rankings and the production profiles found only in the Dynasty Pass, part of the UDK+ for 2024.
College Production Profile
Audric Estime was a four-star recruit and the 16th-ranked running back coming out of high school, per 247 Sports. After initially committing to Michigan State, Estime would ultimately start his collegiate career at Notre Dame, where he played a backup role for the entirety of his freshman year. Kyren Williams was the established RB1 for the Fighting Irish, leaving Estime with very little opportunity to contribute in his first season. Fast forward to his 2022 campaign, he would take on an expanded role as he would lead their backfield in scrimmage yards, yards per touch, and dominator rating, accounting for about 22% of the team’s entire offense. In fact, Estime became one of only six running backs in this class to exceed 1,000 scrimmage yards as a true sophomore. Keep in mind that Estime was still splitting touches with Logan Diggs, who would eventually transfer to LSU after the 2022 season.
With Diggs out of the picture, Notre Dame fully committed to Estime in his junior season as he led the backfield in almost every metric. He received 227 touches while averaging a career-high in yards per touch (6.5), accounting for 31% of the team’s total offense (yards and touchdowns). He also finished the season with 2.00 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play, which is an important benchmark to hit. For context, we generally want to see a running back hit the 2.00 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play mark at least once in their careers. Breece Hall, for example, hit that mark twice at Iowa State. Bijan Robinson exceeded it twice at Texas. It signifies both dominance and efficiency if a running back can exceed that threshold, especially early in their careers. Surprisingly, there are only two running backs in the 2024 class who hit that mark within their first three collegiate seasons: Audric Estime and Jonathon Brooks. In addition, Estime finished his career with a 28% Missed Tackle Forced Rate and 4.1 Yards after Contact per Attempt according to PFF, ranking above the 75th percentile in both metrics. Simply put, Estime produced at a high level in his final two seasons at Notre Dame, checking many of the boxes we should look for in a running back prospect. If he can secure day-two capital in this year’s draft, Estime should be in contention as a top-three running back in this class.
Measurables
Height
Weight
40-Yard Dash
Vertical
Broad Jump
5’11”
221 lbs
4.71
38”
10’5”
One of the biggest limitations in Audric Estime’s game is his lack of immediate acceleration and elite speed. Unfortunately, that was reflected in his 40-yard dash as he came in at 4.71. Even with his heavier frame of 221 pounds, his speed score (which adjusts for weight) equated to only 89.8 according to PlayerProfiler, which would rank in the 28th percentile. It is worth noting that Estime improved on his 40-yard dash at his pro day to 4.58, which would bump up his speed score closer to 100. Where Estime did excel was in his vertical and broad jump. If we combine both metrics into a holistic metric called burst score, Estime would rank in the 87th percentile, highlighting just how explosive he can be. So while he does not possess elite speed, Estime can still be a productive running back in part due to his ability to absorb contact and break tackles. Especially at over 220 pounds, I fully expect Estime to rely more on his physicality and tackle-breaking ability to produce at the next level.
What’s on Tape
As part of my prospect evaluation, I watch between four to six games of film to better understand each player’s strengths and weaknesses. Below are my observations on Audric Estime’s film.
Games Viewed: 2023 vs. Central Michigan, 2023 vs. USC, 2023 vs. Ohio State, 2023 vs. Clemson, 2023 vs. NC State
1. Ability to Break Tackles
For someone with a larger frame, Estime has surprisingly efficient footwork and showcased a consistent ability to anticipate contact. Naturally, because of his size, he is rather difficult to bring down as smaller defenders would bounce off of him as he powers through contact. In addition, he will keep his feet churning as defenders try to take him down, allowing him to consistently break through tackles and shed defenders. Because he excels at anticipating contact, one of Estime’s favorite moves was the hurdle. Once he got into the second level of the defense, he would frequently use his verticality to avoid tackles, elevating over cornerbacks and safeties for additional yards. We see this trait in the play below against Clemson. After navigating through traffic, Estime hurdles over the safety to gain over 20 yards on the play.
2. Consistently Seeks Contact
Estime was never afraid to initiate contact, in part due to his 225-pound frame. Especially in between the tackles, he will consistently lower his shoulder to absorb contact. Estime also rarely gave up on a play, leveraging his lower body strength to carry and drag defenders even if they managed to wrap their arms around him. In addition, he consistently used his momentum to lunge forward at the end of runs, utilizing his size and frame to maximize every opportunity. As a result, Estime finished his career with an impressive 4.05 yards after contact per attempt (per PFF), behind only Jonathon Brooks in the 2024 class. And despite embracing contact, Estime was outstanding at protecting the football, recording zero fumbles in my five-game sample size.
3. Limited Usage as a Receiver
While Estime received plenty of opportunities as a gap and zone rusher, he was sparingly used as a receiver out of the backfield. He only accounted for about 4.3% of his team’s receiving yards in his collegiate career. For context, the average for a drafted running back is about 5.9%, while the most elite receiving running backs Christian McCaffrey, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Johnson all averaged above a 15% receiving yards market share for their collegiate careers. However, keep in mind that Estime’s route tree was partially to blame for his lack of receiving production. In fact, in my five-game film sample size, he primarily ran flat routes and was mainly a check-down option for his quarterback. But even on limited opportunities, he looked natural as a receiver and caught nearly every ball thrown his way. While I do not expect Estime to transform into Alvin Kamara at the next level, he showcased enough consistency as a receiver to operate as a safety valve for his quarterback.
What’s Not on Tape
1. Elusiveness via Lateral Agility
Players like Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson should immediately come to mind when you think of elite lateral agility. Unfortunately, Estime does not possess that same ability to evade tackles. Very rarely in his film did he stack multiple lateral cuts to avoid defenders in the backfield as he relied much more on his physicality to produce. Because of his lack of immediate burst, Estime was most effective as a linear, downhill runner. And once he got into the second and third levels of the defense, he excelled at absorbing contact to gain additional yards. As a result, despite his lack of elite lateral agility, Estime should still be an appealing option for teams looking for an early-down running back and a consistent option in short-yardage situations.
2. Elite Acceleration Into Top Speed
I alluded to this above, but Estime lacks the explosive, early acceleration we see from other running backs, such as Jonathon Brooks or Trey Benson. As a result, it takes him a little longer to ramp up to full speed. This did at times put him at a disadvantage as he struggled to break away from defenders early in the play. However, on the few opportunities he received enough runway to reach full speed, Estime showcased plenty of athleticism to generate explosive plays, as evidenced in the play below. Because it takes him a little longer to ramp up, could this limit his production in the NFL? Possibly. Especially since defenders are quicker to close the gap at the next level, Estime will have less time to accelerate to full speed and may need to primarily rely on his physicality to be an effective running back.
Fantasy Outlook
As I mentioned above, Audric Estime is one of my favorite running backs in this class. While he may not be the most athletic prospect, he possesses the vision, toughness, and tackle-breaking ability that should secure him a role at the next level. Naturally, his draft capital and landing spot will be extremely important. If he can land on a team like the Los Angeles Chargers or Dallas Cowboys, he should receive enough opportunities right out of the gate to be an early fantasy producer. In addition, if he receives day-two capital, I would not be shocked if he breaks out his rookie season. For context, assuming day-two capital, my rookie model would have him ranked in the 76th percentile, right next to Trey Benson and Blake Corum. Furthermore, day-two running backs in the 70th to 80th percentile range in my model have historically averaged a 54.5% hit rate at the next level. With that in mind, assuming he gets selected within the first three rounds of the NFL draft, I firmly believe that Estime should be a top-20 pick in dynasty rookie drafts this season.