2023 NFL Draft Rookie Profile: Marvin Mims Jr. (Fantasy Football)
One of my favorite television shows is “Friday Night Lights,” the story about the Panthers football team from a high school in Dillon, Texas. The show epitomizes everything that Texas football is.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can’t lose.
Next up in our Rookie Profile Series is Texas native Marvin Mims Jr., who no doubt whispered that quote to himself once or twice as he ran onto the field during high school. In Mims’ rookie profile, we will look at his college production profile, check out what is on tape, and look at his potential fantasy outlook in 2023 and beyond. Mims the word!
Editors Note: This article is part of our Rookie Profile series going on until the 2023 NFL Draft. For more on each rookie, check out Andy, Mike, and Jason’s exclusive rookie rankings and production profiles found only in the Dynasty Pass, part of the UDK+ for 2023.
I can only imagine that Marvin Mims Jr. lived that Coach Taylor life growing up in Frisco, Texas, attending Lone Star High School. Crowned “Mr. Texas Football” as a senior, Mims set a national record with over 2600 receiving yards and 32 TDs. He was also a first-team USA Today High School All-American. After initially committing to Stanford over TCU and Notre Dame, Mims changed his mind and chose to play for Oklahoma. Mims proved to be a reliable target for the Sooners as he produced immediately as a freshman and has one of the youngest breakout ages of this class.
This is absurd throw and catch. Caleb Williams to Marvin Mims. pic.twitter.com/XOusCRp1D8
— Bryant C. (@thatmanbryant) October 9, 2021
Mims could stand to gain a few pounds before draft day, weighing in at 184 lbs, whereas the NFL WR1 college average is just over 200 lbs. His overall size could be an issue against the larger DBs that the NFL brings. Mims had a solid performance at the NFL Combine, excelling in multiple categories. He tied for the fourth-fastest 40-yard dash time and had strong results in every other category.
|Age||Height||Weight||Recruit||Breakout Age||40 time||Vertical||Broad|
|20.9||5’11”||184 lbs||4-star recruit||18.5||4.38s||39.5″||10’9″|
Marvin Mims can FLY!
— PFF College (@PFF_College) March 4, 2023
What’s On Tape
Games Viewed: Texas Tech (’20), Texas (’21), TCU (’22), Kansas State (’22)
1. Great After the Catch
One of the first things you notice when watching his tape is Mims’ ability to gain yards after the catch. In his final year at Oklahoma, he had 440 YAC, a number that steadily increased over his three years in school. His YAC/REC also increased from 6.0 his freshman year to 8.5 his junior year. His 440 yards after catch was the 13th most for receivers with a minimum of ten targets. Especially for having a slightly smaller stature, Mims never gives up on a play. You see that in his ability to start and stop and outsmart a defender after a catch. Even on balls that he does not manage to pull in, Mims never seems to give up on the play. A throw that is looking to sail over his head? He still reaches for it. This dedication to playing a down through to completion often gives him defensive pass interference calls.
2. Jack of All Trades
In addition to being one of the primary receiving targets during his time at Oklahoma, Mims was also used in the return game. Mims returned a third of the 102 punt returns he was used for. During his final year at Oklahoma, he logged 137 yards returning punts, with a yards per attempt of a respectable 13.7. It reminds me of how Kansas City started using Skyy Moore as the season progressed. This might be the “in” for Mims if he is drafted to a team that does not immediately need him to be a solid and startable WR3, and he could easily earn his stripes in the return game.
3. The Kid Can Go Deep
Mims really did shine when it came to passes over 20 yards. He had the sixth-highest targets in his draft class at this depth, being targeted 30 times, which he turned into 525 yards. This illustrated the man’s ability to break away, using a combination of speed, smarts, and route running ability. Mims is especially impressive in yards after catch with any depth of target – he had 440 yards after the catch during his final year at Oklahoma, and 147 of those were on throws over 20 yards, second only to Jalin Hyatt.
Marvin Mims. Again. 😱 pic.twitter.com/N45i18sgvi
— 𝕆𝕂𝕃𝔸ℍ𝕆𝕄𝔸-𝕍𝕊-𝕋ℍ𝔼 𝕎𝕆ℝ𝕃𝔻 (@soonergridiron) December 30, 2022
What’s Not on Tape
1. Not Many TDs
Although Mims was impressive with overall yardage during his time at Oklahoma, he needed to complete the transaction more with TDs. In his three years as a Sooner, he never hit double-digit TDs, finishing his college career with 17. Mims also could stand to widen the depth of field from which he scores; in his junior season, all six of his TDs were the result of passes of 20+ yards.
2 . Mims the Word on Contested Catches
Mims only had eight contested targets thrown his direction, catching half of them. Whether his smaller statue dissuades his QB from throwing a pass into potentially tight, contested coverage or something else entirely, Mims has one of the lowest numbers of contested targets in this class of WRs. Mims’ catch rate in his junior year compared to his first two years at Oklahoma is also something to note. In his first two years as a Sooner, Mims had a catch rate of 72% or over, whereas, in his final collegiate year, it dropped to 59%. Additionally intriguing is that with that drop in catch rate, his target share jumped from 10.2% to 22.4%. Mims’ efficiency could be improved upon.
We have already talked a bit about his size, but it is a quality that must be considered when looking at Mims. His size will probably limit him to playing more in the slot. Strong, big cornerbacks in the league will win against Mims and his slight frame. However, this could spell success for Mims. We can actually see the difference in Mims’ success in the slot to playing out wide, looking at his drop percentage in college. In Mims’ freshman and junior years, he played approximately 31% of snaps in the slot and had a dropped pass percentage of 7.1% and 6.5%. Conversely, in his sophomore season, he played 74.6 % of his snaps in the slot and only dropped 3.2% of his passes.
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Marvin Mims is a solid overall talent in a draft year void of a superstar like Ja’Marr Chase. You could argue for the top five or six WRs to go in any order off the board simply because of preference – each WR seems to have a “but what about” attached to their bio. NFLmockdraftdatabase.com mocks Mims going in the third round, and several teams are looking to bolster their receiving core, and with a less-than-overwhelming selection of free agents, trading and drafting will be their only choice. The Ravens, Packers, Chiefs, and Titans are among the teams most desperate for a WR. Kansas City might be a good fit for Mims – with Ju-Ju and Mecole Hardmen supposedly leaving and the fact that they were able to win a Super Bowl with a mish-mashed, taped-together random receiving core, Andy Reid might be in on youth again. Mims could slide into a good role in Green Bay as well. Wherever Mims lands, he has strong potential to become a solid fantasy WR option in a few years, perhaps even sooner if he can move up a depth chart due to injury or other circumstances.
I really like Marvin Mims in this draft class 📈
• 10th in Contested Catch Rate
• 9th in Yds per Route Run
• 2nd in YAC per Reception
• 1st in Avg Depth of Target
• 1st in Yds per Reception
(Stats per PFF)
— Alfredo Brown (@ThePretendGM) February 22, 2023