The DraftKings Milly Maker & “Onesie” Positions in DFS (Fantasy Football)
Editor’s Note: Interested in more DFS Strategy? Check out some of our latest articles including DFS through Backwards Design, Winning Strategies & Tips, and How to Win Consistently in DFS.
The Milly Maker… perhaps you’ve heard of it? Maybe you’ve daydreamed or lost a few hours of your day thinking about winning it?
Personally, I’ve had a few dreams where I woke up with a player or two on my mind convinced I had the winning formula for that million-dollar lineup. DraftKings’ most famous tournament is by far the hardest to master given the sheer amount of entries and the razor-thin margin for error. But the compelling opportunity to start over each week keeps DFSers coming back again and again.
What is the secret sauce of the Milly Maker? I took a look at all of the week-winning lineups from Weeks 1-17 last year to mine out the most meaningful bits of data and a few takeaways for anyone willing to dive into the deep end of the pool.
For the first part of this series, I want to focus our attention on the “onesie” positions for DFS: QB, TE, and DEF. While fulfilling only one roster spot might sound elementary on a weekly basis, this is the treasure trove of finding difference makers that allow you to outpace the competition. I’ll follow this up with a piece on RBs and WRs and finally giving some early GPP strategy for Week 1.
Listen every week on the Footballers’ DFS Podcast as we tackle strategy and our picks for large-field tournaments like DraftKings’ Milly Maker.
Quarterbacks
In DraftKings, QB pricing is fairly tight, an adjustment the company made a few years ago that has only made large-field tournaments like the Milly Maker even harder. While the top-end options such as Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes destroyed for redraft teams, in DFS, their names scarcely grace the leaderboard below. Let’s look at this 17-week sample size and breakdown what seems to be some of the common threads of truth.
- While this shouldn’t be a shock, you HAD to stack your QB with at least one teammate and in ten of the 17 weeks, the winning lineup stacked at least two players from the same team. Game-stacking was utilized in ten of these lineups.
- The average scoring output for these QBs was 34.04 DK points which generally speaking was finding players that would 5x on their salary. The average salary for QBs rostered was $6,200.
- In terms of 300-yard bonuses, all of the QBs except Josh Allen in Week 11 hit that mark and he added 57 yards and a score on the ground. It was surprising to see how little impact rushing yards had on QB scoring in these Milly Maker lineups. QBs averaged just 6.7 rushing yards per game including ten games of six yards or less. There were only two QB rushing TDs all season long in the Milly Maker… which feels like an outlier.
- Despite the Ravens ending the season with the most rushing yards of all-time (3,296) & tying for the 2nd most rushing TDs in the league, Lamar Jackson was in just ONE winning Milly Maker lineup all year (Week 1) and Mark Ingram was in ZERO.
- Speaking of Jackson, while he was a league winner in redraft given his low draft cost, in DFS he didn’t show up again aside from the opening week. His price started at $6,000 rose to $6,700 the next and then vanished from Milly Maker-ville.
Takeaway: It’s hard to find a chalk QB in DFS. Because there are so many viable options, roster percentages stay relatively low. If you do go for the 150 lineups, be willing to stick to your guns on the three or four guys you think could go off that week. The 300-yard bonus is a must for GPPs making players with high yardage floors like Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford in play. Rushing is a bonus but wasn’t needed to push lineups over the top. Make sure you are taking into account correlation plays and “running it back” when selecting a QB.
Tight-Ends
Another of the classic “onesie” positions, hitting on a tight-end is great but not essential to winning a massive tournament.
- The average price for these TEs was just $4,424 on DraftKings. In fact, only one TE (Travis Kelce in Week 2) was over $6,000. While Kittle and Kelce are always in play, their salary made them a bit too pricey compared to some of the cheaper options who hit were startling. Going the $3K route and hoping you fall into a big day was the way to go.
- Because it is PPR scoring, the average of 21.7 DK points seems not completely out of reach although TEs are more TD-dependent than most. Of the 17 TEs profiled, they averaged nearly 8.5 targets per game.
- The 100-yard bonuses were huge especially for a position not bursting with big-play potential. There were 28 total TE performances over the century mark in 2019 with Darren Waller leading the way with five and Tyler Higbee smashing four of them in a row in the month of December.
- Only five of the 17 TEs were “stacked” with their QBs. However, three times of these times the TE was also stacked alongside their WR teammate while running it back. In other words, if you are going to stack and roll the dice for a bonanza-style scoring, keep in mind the TE position to differentiate yourself.
Takeaway: Spend down on tight-end hoping to fall into some unforeseen volume. Four or five catches for 50 yards and a TD is what you’re shooting for. Anything above that is shooting you into another stratosphere.
Defenses
I know, I know… defenses in DFS is among the hardest things to predict. Each week the range of outcomes is enormous considering a pick-six or a return TD completely shifts the momentum. Last week there was a dominant fantasy defense (New England) although
- The average salary of the Milly Maker D/ST was just $3,100 and that includes two $4,300 high-priced options in the Bills and the Patriots.
- A couple of the major outlier performances (25+ points) were essential. Two touchdowns is an absolute killer and sink any other lineup build that week.
- When comparing the Milly Maker defenses with the DEF1 for the week, it seemed odd that nine of the 17 weeks it was a defense playing on the road that was the top scorer. This is a great way to be contrarian, spend down, and hope for some major turnovers. Sacks are not enough in GPPs… you need TDs.
Takeaway: You need almost 20 DK points from your defense to have a genuine shot in the Milly Maker. Stay away from the high-priced options and especially for tournaments, be willing to mix in three or four options knowing the volatility of the position.