The DFS Process: Checklist for Constructing Winning Lineups
On the most recent Fantasy Footballers’ DFS & Betting Podcast, Betz and I discussed some simple GPP strategies and a checklist you can use for constructing lineups.
Here is a list of those notes from the show and a helpful questionnaire for yourself as you head into Week 1!
The DFS Pass is the hub of what we do with DraftKings + FanDuel picks, premium articles and tools as well as a roster percentage report found inside the brand-new DFS optimizer that goes live next week.
The DFS Checklist
This list is not the only way to approach tournaments but it is a good rule of thumb to make sure you are approach lineup building with these things in mind:
Do you have a Team Stack? 90+ % of winning lineups will have at least two players from the same team, preferably a QB + pass-catcher.
Do you have a Game Stack? 85+ % of winning lineups will focus on having a stack with a correlating player(s) from the opposing team.
Do you have only one RB from the same game? 95+ % of winning lineups will NOT have two RBs from the same game.
Did you pay up or punt at TE? And is your TE paired with your QB? Similar correlation as WRs, stacking a TE with a QB can work but with TE scoring being low across the board, it is not always essential to roster THE TE1 from a slate.
Do you have at least 1-2 players who are “low-rostered”? 61 % of top 25% lineups used two plays sub 5%. That isn’t overwhelming compared to some of the other questions on this checklist but it’s enough a number to lean into.
Are any of your players so popular that you can’t create meaningful leverage? If you have 4+ popular pieces, you are simply moving with the crowd and it’s hard to vault the leader board.
What is your Cumulative Roster %? Add up projected roster % for each position Based off historical data, generally we want to shoot for 90-125%. The averaged cumulative roster percentage is usually somewhere around 100%, as perfect as that might sound. Winning lineups (i.e. lineups that cash) usually top out around 121%… you will have chalk weeks above that.
Two Important Questions for Roster %s
Who is popular and WHY?
Is it because of any of the following factors: Good price? Good projection? Good matchup? Lack of other options?
Does this player have a ceiling outcome? Median outcome? Low-end outcome?
Based on this information, how could you attack this slate?
- Remove from player pool– is this because of your own bias?
- Fade– Willing to concede that median outcome is not that viable; ceiling is <10%
- Underweight– Correlation in lineups, below roster percentage, ceiling = <15%
- With the Field– can see ceiling outcome in GPP being 25%
- Overweight– undervalued by the field, ceiling outcome feels closer to 33%
TLDR Recap
- Review the Slate
- Compile best plays and correlation stacks.
- Develop a strategy on how you should act based on #1 and #2.
- Analyze how you AND the FIELD will act (roster percentages) I.e. these 7 RBs will be the most popular. Here are the leverage points and routes to success/failure.
- Construct rosters
- Shoot between 100-120 % roster… Avg previous year was 100. DK Pts 240+
Comments
Hi Kyle, Great work! Do you have an article like this that shows the process for Showdown? I heard the podcast you did on Sept 5th but I can’t find the article.
Roster % report releases Friday if you have the DFS pass. It’s essential if you’re playing GPPs.
Where would you find projected roster % before the contest starts?
Quick Question, how do you know/see roster % on draftkings?