NFL Pace of Play & Stacks for Week 14 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 14, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on neutral pace, pass rate over expectation (PROE), no-huddle rate, and EPA metrics to factor that for a final GPS score.
For a downloadable CSV version of the Pace of Play worksheet, click here.
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams
This game profiles as the top option this week for stacking. At first glance, that might seem like simple math with a 49 over/under and two teams filled with top-end fantasy names. The Bills have won seven in a row and scored 30+ points in each of their last six games. The challenge is that Buffalo games have combined for the 3rd fewest plays per game over the last six weeks. Last week’s snowpocalypse didn’t help but if take out that game, they would still rank in the bottom-5. Josh Allen hasn’t exactly balled out away from Orchard Park this year but his upside is way too tantalizing to ignore.
The Rams are an equal opportunity defense allowing the 3rd highest fantasy points per dropback versus zone as well as the highest fantasy points per dropback utilizing single-high safety looks. In other words, pick your poison against this secondary with a particular emphasis on “don’t get beat deep” looks involving Cover-3 and Cover-6. This is a Khalil Shakir special as his 34% TPRR against those two ranks 3rd best in THE ENTIRE NFL. In fact, the only pass-catchers with more receptions versus those looks this year: Trey McBride, Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and Ja’Marr Chase. His 3.08 YPRR and 8.44 YAC/reception are also top-10 marks. With a jumbled mess at the outside WR spot between Amari Cooper, a potentially returning Keon Coleman, and Mack Hollins, I will likely keep it clean with a simple Allen + Shakir stack or Shakir as a bring back. James Cook is best deployed as a correlation play with the Rams side or as a “wipeout pick” aka Cook and nobody else. He has games where he absolutely takes over as a yards-from-scrimmage monster and the Rams are allowing the 6th most yards before contact per attempt of any team in the NFL. Opponents are running the ball 49.3% of the time, the 3rd highest rate in the NFL. He’s basically game script proof although we’d love his 21% TPRR to turn into big plays in the designed screen game. Cook has just four total receptions on screens for a whopping -1 yards. Yeah, it hasn’t worked.
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