NFL Pace of Play for Thanksgiving Day Slate (Fantasy Football)

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Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.

For this special Thanksgiving slate, I’ll highlight each of the three games from a pace and game flow perspective with some ideas on how to stack each game for tournaments. If you’re looking for more specific player takes, be sure to check out our Best Plays article on Wednesday and be sure to tune into the Tuesday episode of the DFS Podcast. Happy Thanksgiving, FootClan! Kyle and I are so appreciative of all of you supporting the DFS Pass this season. Let’s get it!

Game Pace Score

A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score (GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.

  • 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
  • 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
  • 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
  • 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
  • 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.

For the Thanksgiving slate, we’ve sorted by all 6 team implied totals while focusing on neutral pace, pass rate over expectation (PROE), and EPA metrics.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions, DET -10.5, O/U: 48.5

Turkey Day kicks off at 12:30 pm ET when the Bears travel to Detroit for an NFC North matchup that features two teams trending in the wrong direction. Firmly in the driver’s seat in the NFC North and battling Philly for the #1 seed in the NFC, the Lions are absolutely rolling on both sides of the ball. Let’s start with their offense, which ranks third in both EPA per play and yards per play, and of course, first in points per game at a whopping 32.7. Those numbers are even better at home with Detroit averaging 37.6 points per game when playing at Ford Field. Since Week 6, they’re 6-1 ATS, and their games are 4-2-1 to the over. Sporting the highest team total on the slate by a mile, it’s very likely at least one Lions player is in the optimal lineup come Thursday night.

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