NFL Pace of Play & DFS Stacks for Week 11 (Fantasy Football)
For Week 11, the games aren’t nearly as compelling as we’ve seen in previous weeks. However, the divisional matchups and a classic BUF/KC battle does make for a great discussion on who to stack this week for tournaments.
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 11, I’ve sorted by team implied totals while focusing on neutral pace, pass rate over expectation (PROE), no-huddle rate, EPA metrics and factor that for a final GPS score.
For a downloadable CSV version of the Pace of Play worksheet, click here.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
This NFC West showdown has a lot of factors raising it to the top of GPS scores this week. The 49ers live off of efficiency rather than raw pace ranking #1 in red zone plays per game and with Christian McCaffrey back, the offense gets to open up even more. Monitor George Kittle‘s hamstring tendinitis as he generated +116 receiving yards over expected vs man coverage, the most of any receiver in the NFL. The Seahawks are an up-tempo bunch coming off the bye with a lot to like if D.K. Metcalf is back and in the lineup. Seattle ranks 3rd in neutral pace, their games have averaged a combined 49 points per game, and they remain one of 5 NFL teams with a positive PROE. They also rank 9th in plays per game and their defense has fallen off the map since Week 4 allowing the 4th most points per game in the NFL.
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