NFL Pace of Play & DFS Stacks for Week 1 (Fantasy Football)
Week 1 is almost here folks! If you haven’t familiarized yourself with the DFS salaries, make sure you check out the First Look article.
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, defensive coverages, and stacks to consider for tournaments.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 1, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on pass rate over expectation (PROE) and EPA per play rankings from 2023 and factor that for a final GPS score.
Important Note: I recognize soooo many offensive systems have changed from what they were from last year. Play-calling and personnel matter so much but for Week 1, this is the data we have to go off of. Take everything with a grain salt and if you want a true deep dive on each team’s outlook and what could change scheme-wise, I wrote over 65,000 words on the subject: 1,000 Fantasy Facts & Scheme Stats.
If you’d like another visual format of Expected Points per Play, shout out to rbsdm.com or nflelo, one of my favorite websites for analytics & EPA tiers.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins
With the highest total on the slate, this Florida throwdown gives us access to a “cheaper than he was last year” Tyreek Hill and a Miami offense we know can score points in bunches. Jacksonville struggled down the stretch last year but much of their pace metrics (6th in plays per game, 5th in pass rate over expectation) suggests they can bring the passing volume to match Miami. The Dolphins’ defense had the 4th highest pressure rate and 3rd most sacks but 2024 will be a different crew. Their front was decimated with injuries last year with Jaelan Phillips (Achilles) and Bradley Chubb (ACL) both having up in the air timelines. After a career-high nine sacks last year, DL Christian Wilkins moved on to Las Vegas and some of the franchise mainstays (LBs Andrew Van Ginkel and Jerome Baker & CB Xavien Howard) are no longer on the team. Replacements have been brought in for the pass rush (1st round pick Chop Robinson), linebackers (Jordyn Brooks), and secondary (CB Kendall Fuller & Safety Jordan Poyer) but expecting the same results might be wishful thinking.
Both of the QBs in this game have a clear plan: lock in on their 1st reads. Tua ranked #1 in % of targets that were “1st reads” while Lawrence came in 2nd. This propensity to play within structure or timing is both a blessing and curse. When pressure occurs, things routinely fall apart. The only QBs worse than Lawrence from an EPA per play under pressure last year: Desmond Ridder, Daniel Jones, and Ryan Tannehill. Woof. Miami’s quick strike offense lead the NFL in intermediate completions (10-19 yards) while posting the quickest “time to throw” in the NFL at 2.32 seconds after the snap. Don’t fool Tua for being a short passer
of 34 QBs the last 2 years, on deep attempts of 30+ air yards…
Tua Tagovailoa ranks:
#1 in EPA/att
#2 in YPA
#3 in accuracy
#5 in success rate
#5 in completion ratehere is his chart: https://t.co/hjugQ4bkxb pic.twitter.com/mdQiJzMGh0
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) September 3, 2024
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