NFL DFS Tournament Takes: Week 7 (Fantasy Football)
Footclan, it is an absolute honor and privilege to be able to share my tournament thoughts with you on a weekly basis this season. My goal is to give you an extra resource to use when creating your lineups. I usually play one or two hand-built lineups every week and I’ve had much success in my career playing that way. Each week I’ll discuss my favorite stacks to utilize in large-field tournaments, ways to gain leverage on the field, and any other slate-specific thoughts.
In Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season, I won the Milly Maker and several other six-figure contests on DraftKings. I’ve also been to five live finals where I have competed against some of the best players in the industry. I’m so excited to be able to help you gain an advantage and win some big money this year!
Last week, a surprising 9 out of the 11 games on the slate fell short of their projected total. Just when you thought it couldn’t get any tougher, this upcoming Sunday presents us with a unique challenge as half the games on the slate projected 40 or less. Weeks like this are my favorite for tournaments because it allows us to uncover some great value at low ownership. So, let’s dive in.
Slate Specific Thoughts
Frankly, there are not many games on this slate with shootout capability. Nevertheless, there are still many good options, cheap and expensive. There are several under-the-radar stacks I’m interested in, although I plan to keep my pool tighter than usual to mitigate the risk. The spotlight this weekend will undoubtedly be a divisional showdown between two of the league’s best offenses and star quarterbacks.
Game of the week LA Chargers @ KC Chiefs (O/U 48)
This week’s featured game should be an exciting one as it appears that every time these two teams meet, a shootout is in the cards. Last year, both games were high scoring with final scores of 30-27 and 27-24, respectively. The Chiefs won both of those games and are currently favored by 5.5 points in this upcoming clash.
I anticipate a strong performance from the Patrick Mahomes-led offense to play well against a Chargers defense that has struggled overall. On the other hand, Justin Herbert continues to deal with a broken middle finger on his left hand, which may or may not have any impact on his performance. He did miss a few open deep balls on Monday Night against the Cowboys, which is uncharacteristic of him. Both Quarterbacks come at a high cost with Mahomes at $8,300 and Herbert at $8,000. While it’s not impossible to roster them, this might not be the most ideal slate to invest top dollar in your QB. However, there some intriguing skill position players on both sides
For the Chargers, Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen are both coming in at $8,600 and Joshua Palmer is just $4,800. All of them are viable choices. The Chiefs have a few interesting options as well with Travis Kelce being the primary target for Mahomes. However, his price tag at $8,000 makes it tough to pay up for him when there are alternatives priced as low as $2,500 at the position. Nonetheless, Kelce is a great option along with running back Isiah Pacheco at $6,100 and wide receiver Rashee Rice at $4,700. More on this game to come.
- Packers @ Broncos (O/U 45)
- Cardinals @ Seahawks (O/U 44.5)
- Steelers @ Rams (O/U 44)
Value RB Options
Jahmyr Gibbs $6,300 – I’ll admit it, I’ve missed on Gibbs a few times this season. As a player, he’s shown flashes of his versatility and speed, but has been held back by the Lions who took him 12th overall in the NFL draft. David Montgomery will be missing his second game of the year, and in the first game he missed, Gibbs took 17 carries for 80 yards against the Falcons. While these numbers are not eye popping, he was given the volume and that’s all we can ask for. Gibbs missed the last two games with a hamstring injury, but head coach Dan Campbell has said that he is ready to “take the load” of the carries against the Ravens on Sunday. Look, I get it if you’re skeptical, but this is a dynamic running back in a great offense that will see plenty of opportunity. Worst case scenario is he barely pays off his price tag at $6,300. Best case scenario is he breaks out and I think the ladder is what we will see.
Isiah Pacheco $6,100 – In my opinion, Pacheco is the best value at running back this week. The Chiefs are currently projected to score the most points and are favored by 5.5 points at home. If you’re scared of Jerrick Mckinnon or Clyde Edwards Helaire stealing touches, I implore you to check the game logs from their last 4 games. This is Isiah Pacheco’s backfield. He has at least 17 touches in each of his last 4 games, and there is no reason his role should be diminished as he’s clearly the most talented running back on the roster. It’s also much easier getting exposure to Pacheco than it is Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce since they’re both in the $8K range.
GPP Stacks to Utilize
Cooper Kupp is back, and I don’t think there could be anyone happier than his Quarterback Matthew Stafford. These two are always in sync and nothing has changed even after the injuries they’ve both endured. In Kupp’s two games back from injury he’s caught 15 balls for 266 yards and a touchdown. The Pittsburgh Steelers are currently allowing the 4th most points to wide receivers this season, and while they aren’t a bad defense, they will not be able to hold back the pass happy Rams offense with their best weapon back in the fold.
As hard as it is to get to these two, they’re clearly the two best players at the respective positions. Our roster percentage report shows Mahomes and Kelce as the highest owned of the quarterbacks and tight ends this week. Taking this route gives you tons of upside but you’ll need to dig in the dirt to find value at the other positions of value.
Jordan Love $5,800 + Packers player
This has more to do with value and matchup than anything. The Denver Broncos have been terrible in all phases of the game, and I fully expect the Packers to take advantage coming off their bye. There are several different players you can stack with Jordan Love. Aaron Jones is questionable but expected to play, and if he does, he’s my favorite of the bunch at $6,800. Christian Watson at $5,600 and Luke Musgrave at $3,200 are also great value options here.
Leverage on the Field
Creating leverage is all about knowing what the public is thinking about a specific slate. If we are trying to take down a large field slate, we’ll need to differentiate ourselves just a little bit. Now, that doesn’t mean we need to avoid all chalk, but we must pick and choose our spots wisely. Here are a couple of leverage plays for Week 7.
This one seems weird at first glance but let me explain. The Bears are not a good defense but with Brian Hoyer starting at Quarterback for the Raiders on Sunday I think there’s a good chance we see a very boring game that Chicago could win at home. Josh Jacobs is coming in as the 2nd highest projected owned running back on the slate, and I just can’t spend $7,400 on him when there are cheaper options in better game environments. He’s gotten the volume but hasn’t done much with it all year, averaging just 2.92 YPC and only 2 touchdowns all season.
The Cleveland Browns have just announced that Deshaun Watson will start on Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are a much better run defense than they are against the pass, allowing just 3.7 YPC. Ford is coming in around 20% projected ownership and even though the price tag is nice at $5,100, I just don’t see the upside here especially since Kareem Hunt’s snaps have only increased since he joined the team. Now, Hunt is Questionable to play Sunday so if he is ultimately declared out, Ford will deserve consideration.
Stud Receiver Ranks
- Cooper Kupp $9,500
- Keenan Allen $8,600
- Stefon Diggs $8,900
- Amon-Ra St. Brown $8,000
- Davante Adams $8,200
Value Receivers on the Radar
- Wan’Dale Robinson $3,800
- Jameson Williams $3,800
- Joshua Palmer $4,800
- Rashee Rice $4,700
- Drake London $5,100
Punt Tight End of the Week
Michael Mayer $2,700