NFL DFS Pace of Play: Game Stacks for Week 12 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 12, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on seconds per play and pass rate over expectation (PROE), and Expected Points Added per play (EPA) ranks.
For those that would like a CSV version of the above chart, you can download the Week 12 Pace of Play CSV.
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals
Another week and another opportunity to chase the Bengals defense in DFS. Bengals games have combined for 56.2 points per game (2nd most in the NFL) and you can essentially blind-fold yourself with a grenade launcher knowing the target you’re aiming for is gigantic.
- Against the pass? 32nd in EPA per pass, 31st in yards per attempt, 31st in explosive pass rate allowed
- Against the run? 31st in EPA per rush, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in yards before contact allowed
You could convince me of almost any Patriots combination this week. It’s been a dream season thus far for our champion Drake Maye who leads the NFL in CPOE (10.8%) and Passer Rating (113.0). The big chunk plays have hit time and time again thanks to a remade offensive line. Maye has completed 78% of his passes (5th-highest in NFL) for 12 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions when throwing from a clean pocket this season. That plays well against a Bengals defense generating pressure on just 28.5% of drop backs, the 4th-lowest rate in the league. The hardest part is looking at the stacking partners for Maye and asking if we run it back with TreVeyon Henderson or not? 40% of the Maye’s drop backs this year have occurred with 2 or fewer WRs on the field, the 7th highest rate in the NFL. We are often looking at 2TE sets and fullbacks on the field giving some credence for Hunter Henry to come back into our lives as Cincinnati is historically bad against fantasy TEs allowing +8.3 fantasy points above expectation, more than doubling the Jaguars (+3.5) who rank 31st. We are waiting on the status of RB Rhamondre Stevenson and WR Kayshon Boutte as their return does shift our outlook on guys like Mack Hollins and Stefon Diggs and if we can be confident in a full workload for Henderson.
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