NFL DFS Pace of Play for Week 9 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matters in a world where volume is king. Over the last three years, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
Each week I’ll highlight five game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
A reminder on a simple metric I introduced last year: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– Back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals hovering UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 9, I’ve split up each team’s implied totals, seconds per play, neutral situation pace, and combined that for a final GPS score.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I break down the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-2) – O/U: 50.5
Haven’t we been here before? These two NFC West opponents met in Seattle in Week x with a disappointing 19-9 finish where the Arizona offense decided it didn’t want to show up. But this is a different crew without Marquise Brown and James Conner still on the mend… Oh, and they have DeAndre Hopkins. Since being reinstated from his suspension, the star WR has seen 38(!) percent of the targets. The Cardinals rank #1 in plays per game (70.3) but their pace is slower than you might think. They have long drives, they don’t exactly turn the ball over but rank only 15th in points per game and 27th in play success rate. They are a weird offense that is stuck in neutral more than you would think. Skinny stacking Kyler Murray with Hopkins or Zach Ertz is probably the safest bet.
The Seahawks defense needs to be recast in our minds as they’ve turned it around since the calendar hit October.
Legion of Boom 2.0? Seattle's defense over the last 3 weeks:
– Yards per play: 2nd
– Total DVOA: 1st
– Scoring defense: 5th
– EPA per play: 2nd
– Pressure rate: 7th
– Play success rate: 1st
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) November 2, 2022