NFL DFS Pace of Play for Week 4 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matters in a world where volume is king. In 2020, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
Each week I’ll highlight pace statistics that will affect matchups this week with five game stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I breakdown the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
Five Games to Stack for Tournaments
Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles (+7.0)- O/U: 54.5
|
Team |
Team Implied Total | Neutral Pace | 2021 Pass Rate |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 30.8 | 20th |
62% |
|
|
23.8 | 7th |
59% |
At first glance, this seems like a game we want to be a part of. The Chiefs always have a team implied total above 30 and Patrick Mahomes is a different level on the road. His TD rate rises to north of seven percent and he averages over 316 passing yards per game. He also runs the ball at a higher clip averaging a respectable 21 yards per game. So what are we missing? The biggest question is where on the Eagles side do we counter? Miles Sanders saw two carries last week in a negative game script. The passing options are spread out between both TEs and DeVonta Smith regressing from an encouraging Week 1. How much fight do the Eagles have to keep this close and forcing the pass rates to inch closer to 65 percent? You can approach this game as a simple onslaught stack with Mahomes + one of Hill or Kelce and add in another ancillary piece like Mecole Hardman or Demarcus Robinson in large-field tourneys. Running it back with someone from Philly might not even be a must.
The Chiefs notoriously are a run funnel defense ranking dead last in run DVOA. Now that you mention it, Kansas City’s defense ranks dead last in all three major DVOA categories which is an extremely hard feat to accomplish. The Chiefs don’t get after the QB (2nd fewest sacks) enough either. Hurts is a better play on DraftKings at $6,900 where the 300+ yards come into play. With his rushing equity, you can do a skinny stack with Hurts + a PHI pass-catcher and run it back with Hill or Kelce to simplify this game. You need a top-3 QB performance from Hurts in GPPs so keep that in mind.
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