NFL DFS Pace of Play for Week 15 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matters in a world where volume is king. In 2020, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
A reminder on a simple metric I introduced last week: Game Pace Score (GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– Back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game-scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals hovering close to 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
Keep in mind that we must analyze these pace-up spots within the context of the slate. In other words, while each game is played between just two teams, the selections you make in DFS are not. You can only roster one QB and thus his stacking options with him.
This week I’ll highlight five teams factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with. Normally I would consider full game stacks but this isn’t one of those weeks. On Tuesday, I referred to this slate as the Poo-Poo Platter.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I breakdown the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
Teams I’m Willing to Use in Onslaught Stacks
The GPS scores across the board are easily the weakest we’ve seen in 2021. If you were to average them out, you’re looking at 2.7; but if you only focus on the main slate for DFS, that average drops even further to a dreadful 2.5. In other words,
Arizona Cardinals– 30.5
The Cardinals’ peripheral stats are solid but honestly tough to find a conclusive game stack to roll with. Their pass rate (55%) is 29th in the NFL but they rank 3rd in pass success rate. In other words, if Kyler isn’t pushed, he can simply rest on his efficiency and the run game to take care of business. Arizona is a good bet this week as they’ve surpassed their team implied total in every single road game this year. That’s quite an accomplishment and I could see them go 8-for-8 against a Lions team allowing 30.2 points per game at home in Ford Field this year. But how the offense gets there is the big question… James Conner is a TD waiting to happen leading the NFL with 14 red-zone TDs. The target shares are so spread out (DeAndre Hopkins-19.6, Christian Kirk– 17.8, A.J. Green– 16.8, Zach Ertz– 16.8, Rondale Moore– 16.2, Chase Edmonds– 13.7) that it’s a shoot your shot situation. If Hopkins is out, Kirk sees an increase in my opinion as he’s averaged five receptions for 61 yards whenever Hopkins has been out.