NFL DFS Pace of Play for Week 10 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matters in a world where volume is king. Over the last three years, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
Each week I’ll highlight five game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Game Pace Score
A reminder on a simple metric I introduced last year: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– Back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 10, I’ve split up each team’s implied totals, seconds per play, neutral situation pace, and combined that for a final GPS score.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I break down the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10)- O/U: 50.5
|Kansas City Chiefs||12||6||1||30|
Leaning into a Chiefs team with a 30+ team implied total seems like the easiest battle plan for DFS this week. If you had an offense ranked #1 in yards per game and EPA per play led by the best QB on the planet who is throwing the ball more than any other team, you’d jump in too. Paying up for Mahomes on both sites should be a priority in tournaments knowing how in love everyone is with Justin Fields. Kelce is the constant but also expensive. For context, here is how often these two mainstays have 2xed or more on their salary. The stack 3xing 75 percent of the time is impressive considering their salaries.
|DK PPG||Games Played||2x||3x||4x|
But if you want to attach another KC piece, it is a much tougher task. Over the last month, Juju Smith-Schuster is averaging 8.3 targets per game and a solid 2.44 yards per route run. But it doesn’t feel like he possesses tournament-winning upside. Mecole Hardman is getting more involved but Kadarius Toney feels like he eats into those same low aDOT targets utilizing his YAC-ability.