NFL DFS Pace of Play for Super Bowl LVIII (Fantasy Football)

2024 Ultimate Draft Kit
Unlock the 2024 Ultimate Draft Kit!
Get the 2024 UDK

In a one-game sample size, the possibilities feel endless when you start considering how this game will play out between the 49ers and Chiefs. All of our preconceived notions of these teams and our player evaluations come to the forefront but ultimately this comes down to roster construction. I personally play in large field tournaments at this point in the season and had good success in the Conference Championship identifying leverage points from our Roster Percentage report.

Make sure to check out Friday’s DFS & Betting Podcast where Betz and I break down Super Bowl LVIII and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.

A reminder of what you need to be willing to do in Showdown-type formats:

  • Be willing to go with “the other guy” when selecting pass catchers. Comparing our roster percentages, Deebo Samuel is looking like he’ll be rostered about 10+ % less than Rashee Rice due to their salary difference of $1,600 in the FLEX spot. That is called leverage my friends.
  • Be willing to change your opinion as injury reports come out.  Injuries open up an opportunity for depth players to be fantasy viable at $200 to $2,000. OG Joe Thuney’s status is probably the biggest piece of news we are waiting on but the KC WRs are all over the map from projected playing time to actual efficiency on the field. Good luck figuring that one out. I’ll share some of my convictions below.
  • Be willing to leave money on the table. It’s not comfortable but our research shows how often lineups are duplicated in showdown formats the closer you get to the $50K line. It’s not weird to see lineups with $1200 or more just sitting there.

Overarching Pace Thoughts

Diving deeper into the pace of play allows the prospective DFS player to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS.

For the Super Bowl, I’ve divided up both sides of the ball to give you a visual representation of how KC & SF match up. I will walk through each player on offense and give takes on game theory and how these players might be utilized. Keep in mind that season-long statistics and the adjustments each team made over the last two months (and the playoffs) are arguably more critical.

Depending on the sportsbook, 2 or 2.5 points is the line you will see favoring the 49ers. We reminded everyone The most valuable part of a Showdown slate analysis is getting different.

Here are a few confidence thoughts when constructing your lineup:

2024 Ultimate Draft Kit
Unlock the 2024 Ultimate Draft Kit!
Get the 2024 UDK

San Francisco 49ers Offense

  • It’s hard arguing against the 49ers offensive juggernaut. That green you see on the table above is a testament to Kyle Shanahan’s play-calling prowess and the diversity of this offense. They can run the ball in multiple facets with Christian McCaffery as well as 3-4 carries with Deebo Samuel on end-arounds and out of the backfield. We often forget that Kyle Juszcyzk’s hybrid role as an FB/TE/RB gives opposing defenses fits in 21 and 22 personnel looks. The 49ers operate with two RBs on the field almost 50% of the time. Their diverse approach is unparalleled in the NFL and the running game looks like the glaring weakness for Kansas City if you only look at EPA metrics. I’m not here to tell you how the Chiefs will adjust and defend the run; instead, I’m trying to paint a picture of game scripts and how to build around that for DFS purposes. CMC averaged 18.3 carries in their regular season wins versus just 13 in losses. The opportunities are not the issue for DFS but the big chunk plays we’ve been accustomed to seeing from the SF offenses. This is the area the Chiefs have been stout and limiting big plays in the running game has a trickle-down effect for the rest of the offense. Even at his price as the most expensive player on the slate, CMC’s floor as a FLEX play is hard to argue against.

Want to read the rest of this article?

Get the Ultimate DFS Pass from The Fantasy Footballers for instant access. Expert advice, weekly picks, premium reports, trusted & award-winning weekly resources.

Get the Ultimate DFS Pass

Already have the DFS Pass? Login to access