NFL DFS First Look at Salaries & Matchups for Week 13 (Fantasy Football)
On Tuesday, Betz and myself share some of these insights on the Fantasy Footballers DFS Podcast if you want further commentary on some of the salary standouts.
Every week the First Look article gives you a taste of the slate and some of the more intriguing salaries that DraftKings and FanDuel release. The goal is to identify early-week cash game considerations, as well as potential tournament plays, before we piece together the stacking options.
Here are the games for this week’s main slate* including team-implied totals (TIP) for each matchup.
These lines are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of time of publishing.
At first glance, here are a couple of things to note:
- After our Thanksgiving festivities have ended, we now return to a 12-game slate with only two teams on bye.
- Three games over the 50-point threshold is a nice surprise after last week we struggled to find any over 48. Call me skeptical, but the DET/JAX matchup feels a bit out of place.
- Just for more context, through 12 weeks we’ve had 20 games with a 50+ point total before kickoff. 65 percent have hit the UNDER, which is a staggering number for sports bettors out there. Who likes sweating an under on the top games of the week? People that make money. Favorites have won outrightly 75 percent of the time and while underdogs have covered a spread of 3+ more 60 percent of the time.
- On Bye: ARI, CAR
- Off Main Slate: BUF, NE, IND, DAL, NO, & TB
QBs are fairly strong this week with only Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Kyler Murray removed from the field. The premiere duel between Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes will take center stage. They both project as our top plays early in the week.
- We saw some vintage Justin Herbert ($7200) on Sunday leading the Chargers to a come-from-behind win over the Cardinals. In five career games versus the Raiders, he’s averaged 305 passing yards and 2.6 passing TDs. But perhaps the crazier part is 42 pass attempts per game which is volume you can’t find growing on trees.
|Week||Opp.||Result||Pass Yards||Pass TDs|
|15||@ LV||W 30-27||314||2|
|18||@ LV||L 32-35||383||3|
- Despite the upcoming game versus KC, DraftKings decided to keep Joe Burrow‘s salary ($6900) unchanged. Against the Chiefs last year, he famously went for 446 & 4 last year in Week 17 and then 250 & 2 in a dramatic 27-24 win in the AFC Championship game.
- Anytime there is a supposedly tough matchup for QBs, I immediately want to go the other way. Tua Tagovailoa ($6700) faces a tough challenge against a lights-out 49ers squad. But a Mike McDaniel revenge game should also help remind you that these two teams are very familiar with each other’s schemes. You might be getting Tua double stacks at their lowest roster percentage in recent memory.
- He’s known as Voldemort around these parts but Deshaun Watson ($6500) will get to see his 1st NFL action since 2020. He led the league in passing yards and yards per attempt then as a Texan. The homecoming is going to be the biggest storyline in the NFL. The Texans’ defense is a curious case because they are terrible against the run but their counting stats against the pass look good. It’s because their opponents are clobbering them and there is no need to pass. Houston is PFF’s lowest-graded coverage unit in the NFL for the 2nd year in a row.
- Geno Smith ($6100) is going to show up in optimals yet again as an 8-point road favorite against the Rams, a team that has all but mailed things in this year.
- He’s quietly put together a solid sophomore campaign as the QB11 in fantasy. Who? I’m talking about Trevor Lawrence ($5900) who remains underpriced in a great matchup versus the Lions. They rank dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs and while we still don’t know the status of Travis Etienne, Lawrence should be fine. 38% of opposing pass attempts versus the Lions end in 1st down or TD, the 2nd highest rate in NFL.