NFL DFS DraftKings Showdown Picks for Super Bowl LVIII (Fantasy Football)
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
In addition, you should absolutely check out this week’s DFS & Betting Podcast where Kyle and I talked through this slate in full detail while also providing context around each play for small and large field tournaments.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: SF -2
Team Totals: 49ers (24.8), Chiefs (22.8)
Super Bowl LVIII! The Chiefs and 49ers will battle on Sunday evening for the right to hoist the Lombardi Trophy and watch the confetti fall. Fortunately, we’ve seen these teams play plenty of island games over the course of the last couple of years, so we have a good sample size of how these offenses want to play.
Let’s start with Kyle Shanahan’s offense, which finished the regular season ranking #1 in EPA per play and #1 in yards per play on offense. The Niners’ offensive identity is the ground game with CMC then play action with big, explosive plays down the field with their elite YAC weapons. On the season, the Niners ranked 21st in neutral pass rate, and even two weeks ago when the Niners fell behind early against the Lions, Shanahan still decided to feed CMC in a negative game script, with the team posting just a 50% pass rate. Unless things go sideways in a major way, the run game is going to be a staple of the 49ers’ game plan on Sunday, especially considering they’re 2-point favorites here. After all, the rush defense for KC is their weak link (on paper anyway), so Shanny will likely be incentivized to establish it early and often and avoid the strength of the Chiefs defense, which is their pass D.
As for Andy Reid and the Chiefs, they’ve consistently been among the league leaders in PROE and pass rate. That was true once again in 2023 with the Chiefs ranking #1 in PROE and 6th in neutral pass rate despite a WR room that lacks talent behind Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. During the regular season, the 49ers faced the NFL’s highest pass rate, so on paper, this once again sets up as a pass-heavy game plan for Big Red and the Chiefs who will be looking to go back-to-back in the Super Bowl.