Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 9
Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 9!
In this article, we will utilize my Expected Fantasy Points model to identify the most valuable players at each position. As you may already know, volume is crucial in fantasy football. However, it’s important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal. A player’s value can vary significantly depending on their usage and the overall offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take these factors into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value, based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is closely tied to efficiency and is subject to regression on a weekly basis.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players who rank highly in xFP.
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic view.
- While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
If you are new to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer, where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
RUNNING BACKS
- Kimani Vidal has emerged as one of the most productive RBs for fantasy football, as the Chargers have leaned on him as their RB1 over the last three weeks. Since Week 6, Vidal has averaged a 31% opportunity share, while ranking as the overall RB3 in Expected Fantasy Points with 16.1. For context, only two RBs have averaged a higher usage value in that timespan: Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey. That should put into perspective just how elite Vidal’s usage has been, making him one of the safest RB options in our fantasy lineups. Especially as the Chargers are favored to win by 8.5 points against Tennessee, Vidal should receive plenty of volume in Week 9 as he continues to lead the Chargers’ backfield with Omaion Hampton unavailable.
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