Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 5
Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 5!
In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at each position. Naturally, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their usage and their team’s offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take those variables into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players that rank highly in xFP.
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic view.
- While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
RUNNING BACKS
- Andy Dalton has revitalized the Panthers’ offense as several players are now suddenly fantasy-relevant after the recent change at quarterback. That includes Chuba Hubbard, who currently ranks as the RB19 in Expected Fantasy Points (usage value) to start the season. However, those numbers look even better if we only focus on the games in which Dalton was the starter. Since Week 3, Hubbard has averaged a 35% opportunity share, 11.7% target share, and 19.2 Expected Fantasy Points. His usage value has been truly elite, behind only Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones in that timespan. While Jonathon Brooks could eventually mix into the backfield, reports indicate that he will not be available for Week 5. In other words, Hubbard will have another week as the unquestioned RB1 for the Panthers. His matchup also projects to be favorable, facing a Bears defense that recently allowed RB1 performances in three of their last four games. So assuming his heavy usage continues, Hubbard should finish as an RB1 once again in Week 5.
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