Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 4

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Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 4!

In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at each position. Naturally, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their usage and their team’s offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take those variables into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.

The key metrics used in this article are:

  • Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
  • Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.

What do these metrics tell us?

  • My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
  • Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players that rank highly in xFP.
  • xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic view.
  • While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.

If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.

If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

RUNNING BACKS

RB fantasy usage and efficiency stat table

  • Heading into the season, there were legitimate concerns that Blake Corum could significantly impact Kyren Williams‘ fantasy upside. Instead, we have seen Williams’ usage steadily improve, culminating in a dominant performance against the 49ers in Week 3. As you can see above, he is currently the RB4 in Expected Fantasy Points, accounting for 38% of the team’s total opportunities. In fact, Williams has finished within the top 13 in Expected Points every week this season, signaling that he truly is the lead running back for the Rams. Naturally, this could still change as the season progresses. But for now, you can safely start him as a high-upside RB1 in what is shaping up to be a run-heavy offense (22nd in Pass Rate Over Expected). Especially with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua injured, I expect the Rams to heavily rely on Williams as they face a Chicago defense that recently allowed RB1 performances to both Jonathan Taylor and Tony Pollard.

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