Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 16
Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 16!
In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at each position. Naturally, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their usage and their team’s offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take those variables into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players that rank highly in xFP.
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic view.
- While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
RUNNING BACKS
- With David Montgomery set to miss the rest of the regular season, Jahmyr Gibbs is ready to take off as the lead running back for the Lions. Even with Montgomery in the lineup, Gibbs was already commanding RB1 volume, averaging 14.4 Expected Fantasy Points over the last four weeks (RB4). I expect his usage value to only improve as the Lions will likely lean on him as their lead running back. In fact, we have seen Gibbs in this role before with Montgomery missing three games last season. In those three matchups, he averaged a 35% opportunity share, 14% target share, and 17.4 Expected Fantasy Points. For context, if he were to match that usage value, he would rank as the RB4 in my model over the last four weeks—behind only Josh Jacobs, Chase Brown, and Bijan Robinson. On top of that, Gibbs has an extremely favorable matchup against a Chicago team that continues to struggle on both ends of the ball. Defensively, they have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, while giving up the third-most EPA per Play (0.06) and seventh-highest success rate (43.4%) over the last six weeks. In short, expect a top-tier RB1 performance from Gibbs in Week 16 as the Lions are favored to win by 6.5 points.
Get the 2026 Ultimate DFS Pass for instant access. The 2026 Ultimate DFS Pass is currently available as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit+. Already purchased the DFS Pass? Log in hereWant to read the rest of this article?
