Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 11

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In this article, we will use Marvin Elequin’s Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at every position over the last few games. As you already know, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their unique usage and offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points can help quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on a variety of factors – such as the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.

The key metrics used in this article are:

  • Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
  • Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.

What do these metrics tell us?

  • The model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
  • Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to ideally target players that rank highly in xFP.
  • xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics to get a complete picture of a player’s value.
  • While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your lineups.

If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out Marvin’s full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.

Running Backs

  • Aaron Jones could be set up for success this week against the Chargers. Los Angeles ranks 23rd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs and the coaching staff is clearly saying he’s the lead back. He is the only Packer you can have confidence in a sneaky spot at his sneaky price tag. Jones should be $600 more on DraftKings alone.
  • Kenneth Walker III is an interesting conundrum because the snap counts are in favor of rookie Zach Charbonnet over the last three weeks. However, the valuable early down snaps are still 60/40 in his favor making him a great play on a TD-dependent site like FanDuel while his salary somewhat lags.

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