Early Reactions to Week 1 DFS Pricing on FanDuel & DraftKings (Fantasy Football)
We’re officially less than two weeks out from Week 1 of the NFL season, and to say I’m excited is an understatement. Hopefully, by now you’re starting to feel the excitement of a brand new (albeit strange) NFL season. Here at The Fantasy Footballers, we’ve got you covered to help you crush your upcoming draft with the Ultimate Draft Kit and the DFS Pass, which features premium resources like top DFS plays, Vegas lines, WR/CB matchups, and so much more to help you put a little bit of extra cash in your pocket this fall.
If you play DFS, it’s officially time to start preparing for the Week 1 slate, and that means taking a look at the pricing on FanDuel and DraftKings for the first main slate of the season. Here are my biggest takeaways from my first glance at Week 1 pricing.
Editor’s note: Be sure to subscribe to the Fantasy Footballers DFS Podcast to listen to Matthew Betz and Kyle Borgognoni preview the main slate each and every week throughout the regular season and playoffs.
1. There are a ton of viable cheap QB plays on DraftKings.
The pricing on FanDuel at the QB position is a bit more congested, with several players being priced fairly similarly, but there is a ton of value on DraftKings. If you want to spend up on the Christian McCaffrey‘s of the world, you’ll need to save some money elsewhere, and QB is the perfect place to do so, especially on DraftKings. Several starting QBs are priced below $6K, and many of them have a favorable matchup in Week 1.
- Jimmy Garoppolo ($5800) takes on the Cardinals at home who gave up the most fantasy points to the QB position on DraftKings in 2019. As I discussed on the DFS Podcast, a Jimmy G and George Kittle stack is one underrated stack in 2020. Here are his stat lines in the two games he played against Arizona last year:
- Week 9: 28-for-37, 317 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT
- Week 11: 34-for-45, 424 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT
- Tyrod Taylor ($5600) takes on the Bengals and will have an opportunity to earn extra yards on the ground. Tyrod averaged 35.8 rushing yards per game with the Bills from 2015-2017. While his week to week upside and season-long value is a question mark, there’s no doubt he’s underpriced in Week 1 against a Bengals defense who gave up more rushing yards per game than any other team in the NFL last year.
- Dwayne Haskins Jr. ($5000) is the cheapest starting QB on the slate, inexplicably priced the exact same as Chase Daniel (a backup QB). He’s even cheaper than Jacoby Brissett…what? I’m not saying Haskins is the best play on the week, but at just $5K, he opens up a ton of opportunity to spend up on some elite RBs and WRs, if you want to go that route. For what it’s worth, the Washington Football Team takes on the Eagles in Week 1, who got torched by Case Keenum for 380 yards and 3 TD.
2. Christian McCaffrey is worth the $10,000 price tag on both sites.
He’s the most expensive player on the board, and there’s a chance he’s underpriced. Last season, he was priced above $10K on a consistent basis in the second half of the year, indicating that we could be getting a “value” on CMC in Week 1. Last year, McCaffrey went over 30 fantasy points on DraftKings ten times. When playing DFS, there’s a general strategy to target players who can post 3x their salary in terms of fantasy points in order to return value. In Week 1, CMC takes on the Raiders, who gave up the 13th most receiving yards to opposing running backs, and now we get Teddy Bridgewater, who posted a league-low 6.2 average depth of target in 2019. Fading CMC in cash lineups is not recommended in Week 1.
3. High upside tight ends are cheap on both sites.
The pricing for stud tight ends like George Kittle, Zach Ertz, and Mark Andrews is fair, but there are some extremely salary friendly options available at tight end. There’s an immediate path to production for Hayden Hurst, Chris Herndon, Ian Thomas, and even Jack Doyle, but they’re all priced as the TE10 or worse. Each of these guys has a chance to smash their price tag in Week 1.
- Hayden Hurst plays against the Seahawks in Week 1 in a game that has the third-highest over/under on the board. The Falcons leave behind the most vacated targets in the league, and he takes on a defense who was bottom five against TEs in 2019.
- Chris Herndon has received positive buzz out of camp all August and finds himself running routes where Sam Darnold has been most successful – in the short to intermediate passing game. He’s cheaper than his teammate (and backup) Ryan Griffin despite being the team’s top pass catcher at the position.
- Ian Thomas has the most target competition on his team, but the Panthers figure to run a ton of plays, and as Kyle pointed out on the most recent DFS show, the Panthers were a team who picked up the tempo last year, which should allow Teddy B and company run more plays. He gets the Raiders in Week 1.
- Jack Doyle may not scream upside, but Trey Burton just picked up a calf injury in practice and is likely to miss Week 1, suggesting Doyle should run a ton of routes and be on the field all game. In games without Eric Ebron last year, Doyle saw 6.0 targets per game, but that was with Jacoby Brissett and not Philip Rivers, who has shown a propensity to target his TE aggressively, especially in the red zone.
Enjoy this article? Then you’re going to love Kyle’s first look pricing article in the DFS Pass. This article will be crucial to building lineups each week, as he’ll identify inefficiencies in pricing, allowing us to take advantage when building lineups on a weekly basis.