DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 6
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: Bucs -6.5
Team Totals: Tampa Bay (29.5), Philadelphia (23.0)
The 4-1 Bucs travel to the Linc to face off against the 2-3 Eagles in a matchup featuring an enticing 52.5 point total with the away team favored by 6.5 points on Thursday Night Football. Excluding Tom Brady‘s emotional return to Foxborough, this Bucs offense has been virtually unstoppable, as they’ve averaged a whopping 37 points in their other four games. The Eagles were able to keep the Panthers in check in Week 5, but it seems unlikely to happen against TB12 and the Bucs’ amazing trio of wide receivers. Assuming this is the most likely outcome, we’ll want to strongly consider heavy exposure to the Bucs in our lineups on Thursday Night, especially with the sportsbooks predicting Tampa to score nearly 30 points.
On offense, the Bucs have been prioritizing the passing attack, ranking 1st in Michael Leone‘s pass rate over expectation metric on the season, and as they say, “it’s not even close.” The Bucs right now are throwing at the second-highest rate in the league when games are within one score, but when leading by 7+ points, Bruce Arians seems comfortable to run a more balanced approach, throwing at just a 53% clip. As a result, Bucs’ RBs could come into play in game scripts where we project the Bucs to win by multiple scores.
As for the Bucs defense, we know they’re one of, if not the, biggest pass funnels in the NFL. On the season, they’re allowing a league-low 2.9 yards per carry to opposing backs, rank 3rd in run defense DVOA, and have given up the 7th fewest fantasy points to opposing backs. Now, they catch the Eagles offensive line dealing with multiple injuries, suggesting Philly’s best chance of succeeding on Thursday is to #LetJalenCook and try to move the ball through the air. So far, it looks like they will, as the Eagles rank 10th in neutral situation pass rate. Their pass rate skyrockets to 71% when trailing by 7+ points, notable as Vegas projects Philly to lose by a TD. As a result, when projecting the Bucs to perform well in this spot, we want to be prioritizing the Eagles’ passing game rather than their rushing attack. Through the first five weeks of the season, opposing teams are throwing on the Bucs at the highest rate in the NFL.
Plays per game: Bucs (6th), Eagles (22nd)
Neutral Situation Pace: Rams (9th), Eagles (T1st)
- CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (IR): Elbow
- CB Carlton Davis (IR): Quad
- LB Lavonte David (O): Ankle
- S Antoine Winfield Jr. (O) : Concussion
- TE Rob Gronkowski (O): Ribs
- C Ryan Jensen (Q): Hip
- Edge Jason Pierre-Paul (Q): Shoulder/Hand
- TE Dallas Goedert (O): Covid-IR
- RT Lane Johnson (O): Personal
- LG Isaac Seumalo (IR): Broken Foot
- RG Brandon Brooks (IR): Pec
Tom Brady $18,600
It’s very difficult to poke any holes in this spot for Tom Brady against the Eagles. As described above, the Bucs are throwing at one of the highest rates in the league, so we know the volume will be there, and he’s got arguably the best WR trio in the entire NFL at his disposal. TB12 leads the league in passing yards per game (353.4) and TD-to-INT ratio (15:2), and because of the fact that the Bucs rank 2nd in pass rate from inside the red zone, Tampa’s touchdowns are most likely to come via the air. The only downside to playing Tom in the captain spot on Thursday is the fact that he projects as one of the most popular captain plays on the slate, so if rostering Tom at his 1.5x salary, be sure to double-stack him to maximize correlation and consider differentiating in your lineup elsewhere. In lineups where I’m passing on Tom at the captain, I’m most likely to play him in the flex.
Stack Idea: Cpt Tom Brady + 2 pass catchers, Bring back with Kenneth Gainwell