DFS Pace of Play for Wildcard Weekend
For each playoff matchup, I’ll discuss the pace of play and implications of game flow which affects how we stack and correlate in DFS. I’ll also mention my percentage of exposure in tournaments and which games potentially could be faded. At the end, I’ll give my favorite dart throws of the week.
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. For every 5 seconds difference in terms of per play, a team runs 15 more plays per game. In the DFS world, that’s a massive difference considering volume is king. In 2019, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in a neutral game script.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I breakdown the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||Washington Football Team|
|Pace of Play||9th||10th|
|Neutral Game Script||4th||14th|
You wouldn’t think of this matchup as the #1 pace up spot of the week but both of these teams have the kind of defenses that will force the opposing offense to get creative. Ron Rivera is not going to be able to plow Antonio Gibson into this fearsome Tampa Bay run defense again and again as they rank #1 in run DVOA. Teams have exploited the Bucs in the flats as they’ve allowed the most RB receptions in the NFL so maybe this is a prime spot for J.D. McKissic. On the other side of the ball, Tom Brady is going to have to get rid of the ball quickly against Chase Young and company that ranks 7th in adjusted sack rate. I don’t trust Mike Evans to come back and contribute in an impactful way this week with his left knee sprain as Betz pointed out. Chris Godwin is the best way to attack Washington in the slot while Rob Gronkowski is running the type of routes we want. On this slate, he’s one of the few TEs with 2-TD upside especially if Evans is hobbled. If Terry McLaurin (ankle) is not listed on the final injury report, I think you can get him at a lower roster percentage than his ceiling would suggest. Overall, this game doesn’t have quite the back-and-forth vibe with the lack of weapons and QB shifting for Washington. It’s a great story for Rivera and Alex Smith but it likely comes to an end this weekend.
Recommended GPP Stacks/Correlation Plays: Low