Borg’s NFL DFS Cash Lineup Review for Week 12 (Fantasy Football)
Not sure how your Thanksgiving week went. Here’s a little Monday morning update after being in Atlanta all week and flying back to Phoenix on Saturday night:
- Lost by 0.5 in my main dynasty league thanks to the final Tyler Lockett reception in overtime
- Lost by 3.51 in my main home league thanks to Olave’s catch being ruled not a catch for some reason
- Missed cash line despite being ahead until the final 5 min of main slate…
Pain? Yes. Did my wife leave me? Nope.
For those who don’t think there is an edge in DFS, realize I was playing someone in H2H running out… Russell Wilson AND the CAR DST. This wasn’t the week I imagined but, as you’ll see at the end of this review, some great wins in other spots.
The goal of this article is neither to boast or wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week. On Tuesdays, Betz and I review our cash lineups, and this week we’ll give some common overreactions we see and hear.
For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, my thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including ROI and H2H record to stay accountable with you.
If you’re wanting to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on DFS Cash Game Strategy. I also published an article on DFS Strategy for Beginners and another entitled: How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.
Week 12 Cash Lineup
The Thought Process
Let’s work from early week locks to where I made my final decisions.
Cash Locks (In My Opinion)
- In our DFS Best Plays article (which comes out on Saturday), I shared my core DraftKings players. Honestly, I got to play everyone I wanted to play this week. My top-3 options at RB, my top-3 WRs, my top QB, and the chalk DST.
- I couldn’t imagine building a cash lineup without Rachaad White or Jeff Wilson Jr. The opportunities and matchups against the league’s two worst run defenses with Leonard Fournette and Raheem Mostert out made them locks. The field felt the same way and I think it was chalk
- I’m happy to report that I’ve played Foster Moreau for what feels like five weeks in a row. He’s too cheap and I was bullish on Derek Carr all week including making him my Bold Call of the Week for 3 TDs.
- The KC DST was locked in from early in the week. Chalky? Yes. Underpriced versus Bryce Perkins? Yes.
- At QB, I only considered three guys: paying up for Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and saving more $ with Geno Smith. Burrow’s matchup vs TEN, Joe Mixon‘s status, and getting a stack with Tee Higgins proved too enticing.
- Speaking of Higgins, I was sweating his line for almost three quarters. He was sub $7K and I never really thought Ja’Marr Chase would be active this week.
- At WR, my player pool consisted of Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams in the elite tier, Terry McLaurin, Keenan Allen, and Tee Higgins in the mid-tier, and then Garrett Wilson, Treylon Burks, and Justin Watson as a stone min punt play if needed.
- The middle tier kept winning out with Wilson being my final cut. I tried Wilson + Tyreek instead of McLaurin + Walker but ultimately I was worried a bit about the weather in the NYJ/CHI which was forecasting constant rain all game long.
- Keenan Allen was just too juicy in a PPR format to ignore. I wish I could give you a more nuanced answer but he’s my favorite player in the league. When Betz and I both zeroed in on him being a top-3 WR for us on DK, he was locked in. Call it projections but also call it I-finally-get-to-play-him.
- By far, the hardest choice of the week was what to do at FLEX. Kenneth Walker III was my RB3 in my Best Plays in a game I wanted to have a piece of the Seahawks’ offense. If you told me he would have two TDs, sign me up. But he was terribly inefficient and Josh Jacobs ended up stealing the show down the stretch.
- I also considered at the last minute moving from Joe Burrow + Kenneth Walker + Terry McLaurin to Geno Smith + Austin Ekeler + Garrett Wilson but then I would’ve still had a ton of money to work with and I didn’t want to play two Chargers in the same lineup knowing Ekeler and Allen do most of the work in the same area.
Mistakes Were Made …
Every week I’ll highlight my biggest mistakes which range from not weighing low-end outcomes to assuming, to not thinking, and ultimately moving away from plays I started with. We’ve all been there… stay water. Don’t try to justify yourself or make things sound better than they were. You made a decision, now deal with it.
- I probably locked in McLaurin a bit too early. While I moved off Wilson because of rain, I should’ve scrutinized McLaurin with the same lens.
- I actually left $400 on the table this week. That felt uncomfortable but I loved the way my lineup looked and projected before lock. I figured if I needed it for late swap if things went south. But why didn’t I swap? My lineup had most of the late chalk on my radar in the late window
- QB- Mahomes, Geno
- RB- Walker, Ekeler
- WR- Allen, Hopkins, Adams
- TE- Moreau
- DST- KC DST
Each week I’ll post my head-to-head (H2H) win percentage here to give you an idea of what type of week I had. Keep in mind there are varying price points, competition, and players who take my H2Hs in the lobby that have no rhyme or reason.
|Week||DK Pts||H2H Win %||Note|
|1||147.02||65%||All the Chalk Hits|
|2||106.90||46%||Trey Lance Pain, Mark Andrews Salvage|
|3||122.86||77%||Mack Hollins FTW|
|4||90.26||10%||Jonathan Taylor Nose Dive|
|5||208.06||100%||This Lineup Could Do No Wrong|
|6||134.26||32%||The Mike Evans Let Down|
|7||194.64||93%||Joe Burrow + the Top-3 RBs|
|8||—||—||OFF for Family|
|9||162.92||83%||Justin Fields Goes Bonkers|
|10||138.18||34%||Kamara & Waddle Let Downs|
|11||83.2||19%||Not a Single Flame in Sight|
|12||142.9||48%||The Josh Jacobs Soul Crusher|
While Jacobs was not by any means rostered very much, it was Kenneth Walker‘s lack of production in the final quarter + overtime which cost this lineup from a better day.
In lower level Double-Ups, this lineup cashed ($2 & $5) but it barely missed the line in $10 & $25s. Luckily I won the Battle of the Borg and placed in some small field tournaments making this a profitable week despite traveling across the country for Thankgiving.