Borg’s NFL DFS Cash Lineup Review for Week 10 (Fantasy Football)
How did your week go?
It’s astounding to me that every week people can be participating/watching/obsessing over the same fake sport and end up on completely different ends of the emotional spectrum.
As you’ll see below, I came out on the wrong end of a couple of cash decisions missing the cash line in my double-ups. It’s a terrible feeling but then I get messages from people in our Discord channel and on Twitter that have the exact opposite experience. :Shrug:
Thanks again go to @TheFantasyPT, @kyle_borg and @TheFFBallers. Cashed in 100% of my double ups and I have a comfy lead in my season long DFS league. #FantasyFootball #NFL
— Joe F. (@JosephAFerrone) November 14, 2022
The goal of this article is neither to boast or wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week. On Tuesdays, Betz and I review our cash lineups, and this week we’ll give some common overreactions we see and hear.
For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, my thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including ROI and H2H record to stay accountable with you.
If you’re wanting to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on DFS Cash Game Strategy. I also published an article on DFS Strategy for Beginners and another entitled: How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.
Week 10 Cash Lineup
The Thought Process
Let’s work from early week locks to where I made my final decisions.
Cash Locks (In My Opinion)
- In our DFS Best Plays article (which comes out on Saturday), I shared my core DraftKings players.
- While Patrick Mahomes was my top QB play of the week, I never imagined I would build my cash lineup with anyone other than Justin Fields. Beyond the fact he smashed for me last week, the salary difference was too much and you knew the Field was going to roster him 70+ percent as we mentioned on Friday’s DFS Podcast. I mentioned today on Twitter that his salary is going to be north of $8K soon.
- Early in the week, I felt like Alvin Kamara and Dameon Pierce was underpriced given their roles on their team. Those two were heavily rostered but obviously sunk this team. The disappointing thing is Kamara seeing six total receptions for the last two weeks. Pierce fumbled inside the red zone too which further added insult to injury.
- Once we got the news that Ezekiel Elliott was trending in the wrong direction, Tony Pollard felt like a lock in cash. We saw what he did with this opportunity last week totaling three TDs and the matchup against a run-funnel Packers team was too good to pass up.
- By far, the hardest choice of the week was what to do at WRs, especially with the Miami guys. Tyreek Hill was my top-ranked WR but the price tag ($9100) felt constricting for a while. Jaylen Waddle ($7600) was cheaper but always felt like the lower target volume was not going to help him overcome Tyreek. The fear of not having one of those WRs in my lineup was a driving force in a lot of my decisions.
- Among the other WRs in my player pool, I had Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6900), Juju Smith-Schuster ($6000), Christian Kirk ($5900), George Pickens ($5000), Zay Jones ($4300), and Donovan Peoples-Jones ($4300).
- DPJ continually kept showing up in my lineup as I mentioned in the #dfs Discord channel, he moved his way into being a top-5 cash game WR for me. The matchup and correlation with a Miami WR slowly grew on me.
- The 2v2 swap came down to Tyreek + George Pickens OR Jaylen Waddle + Juju Smith-Schuster. While Pickens was enticing at his price, Juju felt like a stronger projection on a KC team with the highest over/under of the week.
- At TE, I knew punting would be the option and honestly, I had Foster Moreau up until literally five minutes before lock. The only other TEs on my radar were Greg Dulcich ($3400), Kylen Granson ($2700), and Harrison Bryant ($2700). I wouldn’t get news about the Indianapolis TE situation until the afternoon games so while Granson was tempting, he was out. Greg D was too popular for my liking in the lowest total game of the week (36) making him easier for me to move off.
- There were only two DSTs I considered: MIN & ARI. But boy did it feel like a painstaking decision all weekend as the Bills did a great job of veiling every Josh Allen piece of intel. I had the Vikings in but the final tweet on Sunday morning with Josh Allen confirmed to start moved me off them. It was only $500 to get up from MIN to ARI which coincided with my Moreau to Bryant choice. In hindsight, I think it was a solid choice knowing how popular the Cardinals would be. The Vikings only paid off because of a goal-line fumble recovery for a TD.
- Yes, I pivoted two players five minutes before lock. Was it emotional? Yes. Was it calculated? No. But did it cost me? Not at all. My other choices at RB and with Waddle ultimately are what put me behind the final 50/50 cash line of 150 DK points.
Mistakes Were Made …
Every week I’ll highlight my biggest mistakes which range from not weighing low-end outcomes to assuming, to not thinking, and ultimately moving away from plays I started with. We’ve all been there… stay water. Don’t try to justify yourself or make things sound better than they were. You made a decision, now deal with it.
- Waddle over Amon-Ra St. Brown probably was a bit vindictive. The Sun God hadn’t scored a TD since Week 2 and I knew the field loved him. Waddle had a chance for a much higher ceiling but Amon-Ra was a cheaper PPR guarantee.
- I didn’t really poke holes in Kamara or Pierce. Both felt like such firm locks for Betz and I but there was a downside especially if other RBs (especially Saquon Barkley or Josh Jacobs) would smash.
- It’s hard to call Juju a mistake. Injuries happen and there is nothing you can do about it. Don’t blame. Don’t play the shoulda, woulda. You played someone in cash. It didn’t work out.
Each week I’ll post my head-to-head (H2H) win percentage here to give you an idea of what type of week I had. Keep in mind there are varying price points, competition, and players who take my H2Hs in the lobby that have no rhyme or reason.
|Week||DK Pts||H2H Win %||Note|
|1||147.02||65%||All the Chalk Hits|
|2||106.90||46%||Trey Lance Pain, Mark Andrews Salvage|
|3||122.86||77%||Mack Hollins FTW|
|4||90.26||10%||Jonathan Taylor Nose Dive|
|5||208.06||100%||This Lineup Could Do No Wrong|
|6||134.26||32%||The Mike Evans Let Down|
|7||194.64||93%||Joe Burrow + the Top-3 RBs|
|8||—||—||OFF for Family|
|9||162.92||83%||Justin Fields Goes Bonkers|
|10||138.18||34%||Kamara & Waddle Snowflakes|
Not great and something to discuss on Tuesday’s DFS Podcast with Betz.
thanks again for the article – i enjoy these
Great write up. I had the same lineup but had Foster & Minn DST. Barely made cash in lower dollar double ups.