Borg’s DFS Cash Lineup Review for Week 5 (Fantasy Football)

There is this scene in Mighty Ducks (yes, I know) where Gordon Bombay is reminiscing with a young Charlie Conway how he missed a penalty shot in the last game of the 1973 Pee Wee state finals.

“I triple deke. I fake the goalie right out of his pads. The puck heads in and then… Clang! Hits the post.”

And then he delivers the line that is the real reason for me using yet another Mighty Ducks metaphor:

Bombay: “A quarter of an inch this way and it would’ve gone in. A quarter of a inch Charlie.”

Charlie: “Yeah, but a quarter inch the other way and you’d have missed completely.”

Bombay: “I never thought of it that way.“

Check out the cash line in the $25 Double-Ups.

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Yep, missing by a quarter of an inch (0.1) can easily get me to run through the 50+ scenarios where things comically failed at the end:

• Jordan Mason’s costly fumble late in the 4th quarter
• Brock Purdy missing a wide open Jauan Jennings on a TD
• Jordan Whittington dropping not one, but two(!) receptions and then getting knocked out of the game
• Kenneth Walker III seeing 9 total carries

But you can easily take this the other way on a number of guys who were fortunate to even get this cash lineup that far.

The goal of this article is neither to boast nor wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS & Betting Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week. On Tuesdays, Betz and I review our cash lineups, and this week we’ll give some common overreactions we see and hear.

For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, and the thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including the cash line and H2H record to stay accountable with you.

If you want to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on DFS Cash Game Strategy + Creating Player Pools. I also published an article on DFS Strategy for Beginners and another entitled: How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.

Week 5 Cash Lineup

Draft % and cash lines each week will be from DraftKings’ $25 Single-Entry Double-Up with roughly 5,000 entries. This is a slightly elevated price point from the $1, $5, and $10 double-ups and I think gives a solid idea each week of double-up roster percentages.

The Thought Process

Cash Locks (In My Opinion)

• In our Week 5 DFS Best Plays (which comes out on Saturdays for DFS Pass subscribers only), I shared the pool of players and this week was blatantly obvious who the top plays were.
• I personally considered Jordan Mason a must-play and it seems the field felt the same way. I wrote: “The usage is through the roof, the 49ers team implied total is approaching 30, and they should smash at home against the Cardinals. He’s the cover boy and our consensus RB1 for a reason.“
• Among other obvious plays, Tucker Kraft was the punt TE of the week and 2/3rds of the field was in on him. The outcome was ridiculous with two TDs making him an optimal play in tournaments as well.
• The Broncos DST was also locked-in early in the week. We discussed this on our Tuesday salary standouts on the podcast and other than punting down even further, this felt like a spot where you just didn’t need to get cute.

Gut-Wrenching Decisions

My goal in this section is to discuss the pool of players I considered for cash and how I arrived at my final lineup.

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• At QB, there were a number of options that I considered: Jordan Love ($6400), Brock Purdy ($6200), and Geno Smith ($5900). I leaned heavily into the 49ers team total believing they could easily hit the 30+ point mark. I brought up the figure that they averaged 33 points per game in Purdy wins since he took over the starting role. Unfortunately, San Fran was stuck at 23 points forever and blew that game. In hindsight, diversifying to Geno was probably a wiser move given how pass-happy the Seahawks have been but I also didn’t want Kenneth Walker and Geno together.
• With Jordan Mason in the RB1 driver’s seat, there were a number of strong RB considerations this week.
  • Derrick Henry– I didn’t feel as strong with Henry on the road despite the plus matchup. His lack of pass-catching makes him more boom/bust than I want in cash. Before that long run in overtime, he was basically an early TD and nothing else.
  • Kyren Williams– The TD equity is unmatched as the surest thing we have in DFS aside from prime CMC. His price tag was expensive but I considered him a close to priority play at home.
  • Kenneth Walker III– In two games this year, Ken Bone has balled out. As a near-TD favorite at home against the Giants run funnel defense, he felt like a great play at a price that was set before his 3-TD game from Monday night.
  • Chuba Hubbard– Since Andy Dalton became the starting QB, Chuba has been a monster. I did have some concerns on the road against a Chicago defense I picked in my Survivor Pool.
• My RB strategy was pretty simple: volume. Kyren has been a TD machine and Walker looked like a strong play as well. Home RBs guaranteed to see the ball 20+ times felt like an easy strategy to lean into.
• I honestly never really considered Tyrone Tracy Jr. and I’m not sure he was guaranteed to see many touches until Eric Gray fumbled at the goal-line on their opening series. It was all Gray up until that point including some legit pass-catching work early.
• At WR, it was a wide open week. Deebo Samuel ($6800) was my favorite expensive play of the week and yet despite him being my WR1, he didn’t make it in my lineup in favor of a 3RB build. I mentioned that on the podcast that it seemed the field would lean into the matchups and volume of RBs this week.
• The cheap plays of Dontayvion Wicks ($5000) and Jordan Whittington ($4600) were obvious at the beginning of the week. I liked Whittington’s PPR value more as Wicks was not a must play for me.
• Wicks was an interesting case where my film study (on the Dynasty Podcast) actually turned me off him in tournaments. I didn’t play Wicks in a single GPP lineup as I think he’s a better athlete than NFL receiver. Film takes aside, he was going to be popular at his price point and pivoting my lineup to move away made me nervous once Romeo Doubs was suspended.
• The news of Joe Flacco being listed as the starter for the Colts definitely shifted some of my thoughts late in the weekend. I considered one of Michael Pittman Jr. ($6000) and Josh Downs ($5100) must-plays when the news broke on Saturday that Anthony Richardson would be moveed to doubtful. And while I did laud for Alec Pierce as a dart throw in the Best Plays, the cash consideration came down to Pitty City or Downs.
• Pittman was cheap and while I tried dropping down to Downs and save $900, I didn’t know where the spend the money. The only combination I considered was Downs + Tee Higgins, who was my Bold Call at the end of the Best Plays. I sided with the chalkier Wicks + Pittman.
• You’ll notice that I do not have a weighted opportunities comparison this week for my cash lineup like I have in previous weeks. I usually run through those again on Sunday morning but my family schedule was filled up this weekend with a funeral, Saturday night family get together and a Sunday family brunch.

Mistakes Were Made …

Every week I’ll highlight my biggest mistakes which range from not weighing low-end outcomes to assuming, to not thinking, and ultimately moving away from plays I started with. We’ve all been there… stay water. Don’t try to justify yourself or make things sound better than they were. You made a decision, now deal with it.

• Not working through projections was a bit lazy but that’s just how my weekend went. I’ve shared before my DFS Process and how Saturdays are mostly a day where I don’t tinker with lineups.
• Downs + Higgins was more my style of being slightly contrarian but without being able to sit in front of a computer, I stayed with a mostly chalky build. Whoops

2024 Results

Each week I’ll post my head-to-head (H2H) win percentage here to give you an idea of what type of week I had. Keep in mind there are varying price points, competition, and players who take my H2Hs in the lobby that have no rhyme or reason. The volume of my H2Hs differs each week due to my feeling of the slate and my weekend activities with my family. Every week I will also post the “cash line” from the $25 Double-Up from DraftKings.

This is yet another example of why adding H2Hs alongside your Double-Ups can help alleviate some of your losses. The 0.1 bad beat would’ve been more painful if I didn’t play these H2Hs. Notice I missed on being better than 50% of the field but my H2Hs came out at a solid 63%. Individual mistakes from randos taking my cash lineup made up for some of those losses.