Borg’s DFS Cash Lineup Review for Week 14 (Fantasy Football)

Week 14 decided to go absolutely bonkers!

It was the highest cash line of the season and 2nd highest over the last two years!

The goal of this article is neither to boast nor wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS & Betting Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week. On Tuesdays, Betz and I review our cash lineups, and this week we’ll give some common overreactions we see and hear.

For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, and the thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including the cash line and H2H record to stay accountable with you.

If you want to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on DFS Cash Game Strategy + Creating Player Pools. I also published an article on DFS Strategy for Beginners and another entitled: How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.

Week 14 Cash Lineup

Draft % and cash lines each week will be from DraftKings’ $25 Single-Entry Double-Up with roughly 5,000 entries. This is a slightly elevated price point from the $1, $5, and $10 double-ups and I think gives a solid idea each week of double-up roster percentages.

The Thought Process

Cash Locks (In My Opinion)

• In our Week 14 DFS Best Plays (which comes out on Saturdays for DFS Pass subscribers only), I shared the pool of players and this week was blatantly obvious who the top plays were.
• I wrote up Alvin Kamara as my cash lock and never looked back in my decision-making process: “It feels like we’ve said the same thing every single week but Alvin Kamara remains a high floor weekly option at a price point ($8K) that is too cheap for his services. He’s averaging 23+ opportunities per game and the Giants defense is a turnstile for opposing RBs. His rushing + receiving line on most sportsbooks is well above 120+ yards. It’s time to end this stupid TD-less streak for him!” Spoiler: he did NOT score.
• I also had Zach Charbonnet and Isaac Guerendo locked in. Once we received news that Kenneth Walker would be out, Charbs automatically became the most popular play on the slate. While he’s been inefficient as a runner all year long, the backfield workload was going to be his and ALL his. That alone made him a valuable player but $4,800 is the stuff we dream of in DFS. If Charbs wasn’t in your lineup, you either were holding onto your priors or ignoring news over the weekend. My bias wanted to NOT play him but the value + opportunity was a great check on my personal fantasy vendettas. I also had Guerendo > Braelon Allen given the home matchup against the run funnel Bears. We talked that up in our cash plays and on the podcast.
• While toying around with cheap options like Levis or AOC at QB sounds fun in the moment, I never really thought about moving off Sam Darnold. The spot at home against the Atlanta secondary felt clean and I talked up his pass-catchers as my slate-breakers of the week. Darnold’s salary plus his popularity made him an easy click despite the potential salary savings you could get dropping down. However, with all of the RB savings on the slate, there really wasn’t a need to go there.
• That is probably a good talking point to bring up… on a slate where we had three legitimate savings options at RB, squeezing another $1,500+ from QB dropping down to the cheaper guys really wasn’t needed. We didn’t have a popular punt TE or WR that was encroaching upon the field so sticking with Darnold (yes the outcome was bananas) was what the field was dictating.
• There really wasn’t a debate at DST this week. The Saints were going to be the top option although saving $100 going down to the Titans is also fine. When you flip the cards, expect the Saints to be everywhere and it’s a stance we’re willing to concede in cash formats.

Gut-Wrenching Decisions

My goal in this section is to discuss the pool of players I considered for cash and how I arrived at my final lineup.

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• I wrote in our #dfs Discord channel that this cash slate came down to 2-3 WRs and which TE you selected. Depending on your combination, you could come out ahead of the cash line or get buried.
• With 3 RBs locked in, I never really tinkered around with 2TE builds. It did bring up an interesting challenge this week as it was almost as if the field was daring you to pay up for Brock Bowers or Trey McBride. As much as I love Bowers, I hate paying up for chalk TEs. Ceiling outcomes can often be elusive for this position despite the fact Bowers is functioning as the team’s WR1. With Darnold at QB, I used the savings to go to T.J. Hockenson. It was a frustrating outcome for a player who seems to be on the one-off, one-on fantasy strategy. I was worried that I’d get buried by one of the elite guys (emotionally hedging by playing them in tourneys) but I did not foresee over half the field playing Bowers. Group think anyone?
• The real pickle was the WRs as I could’ve named at least 7-8 guys I sorted through. I wanted Mike Evans AND Justin Jefferson but with Kamara in my lineup, Jefferson ended up falling by the way side unless I punted at QB. I wasn’t willing to move off Darnold so Hockenson ended up being the consolation prize to give myself a MIN stack.
• Evans had been so involved since returning from injury and I thought 8-10 targets was well within reach. Pairing Evans with Jakobi Meyers also gave me some in-game correlation and a chance to take Bowers lineups head-on IF they didn’t play either from the same game. I don’t always take this strategy but knowing those 3 players from the TB/LV game would be popular, it gave me an opportunity to have some Bowers insurance.
• I was sorting through so many different WRs in this range: Calvin Ridley, Jauan Jennings, Jerry Jeudy, and even Elijah Moore. The Browns guys were a tough click for me despite Jameis Winston‘s recent success. I hated the environment on the road in Pittsburgh and it honestly came down to Ridley v Jennings. In fact, the Charbonnet news allowed me to have enough money to move up to Ridley from my dude Jennings. I talked him up on the podcast but with a 49er already on the squad, I decided to diversify and give myself room for a ceiling outcome with Ridley. The Jaguars were a matchup we’ve targeted all year long.

What Did the Field Do

My goal in this section is to discuss the pool of players used the most in cash style contests. You can compare the roster percentage, DK outputs, and how much of their salary they X’ed this week.

Mistakes Were Made …

Every week I’ll highlight my biggest mistakes which range from not weighing low-end outcomes to assuming, to not thinking, and ultimately moving away from plays I started with. We’ve all been there… stay water. Don’t try to justify yourself or make things sound better than they were. You made a decision, now deal with it.

• I think I read the slate as well as I could avoiding the mistakes of the cheap QBs and paying up at TE.
• However, I evened out my WRs too much and almost lost out due to NOT playing the Jefferson or Jennings.  The 2v2 decision was Justin Jefferson + Jauan Jennings versus Mike Evans + Calvin Ridley. That almost cost me!

2024 Results

Each week I’ll post my head-to-head (H2H) win percentage here to give you an idea of what type of week I had. Keep in mind there are varying price points, competition, and players who take my H2Hs in the lobby that have no rhyme or reason. The volume of my H2Hs differs each week due to my feeling of the slate and my weekend activities with my family. Every week I will also post the “cash line” from the $25 Double-Up from DraftKings.

In a weird turn of events, I had my highest cash score of the year… and yet had a losing week in H2Hs! I guess there were some lineups with Josh Allen and Justin Jefferson that just demolished me!