Borg’s DFS Cash Lineup Review for Week 13 (Fantasy Football)

I often share that each week in DFS is its own multiverse; you cannot compare what happened last week and use the same exact criteria in evaluating your decisions.

However, there are some weeks which feel crystal clear in the approach. As I’ll outline this week, it felt like 4-5 plays in cash were essentially “made for you” by the NFL script writers.

The goal of this article is neither to boast nor wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS & Betting Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week. On Tuesdays, Betz and I review our cash lineups, and this week we’ll give some common overreactions we see and hear.

For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, and the thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including the cash line and H2H record to stay accountable with you.

If you want to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on DFS Cash Game Strategy + Creating Player Pools. I also published an article on DFS Strategy for Beginners and another entitled: How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.

Week 13 Cash Lineup

Draft % and cash lines each week will be from DraftKings’ $25 Single-Entry Double-Up with roughly 5,000 entries. This is a slightly elevated price point from the $1, $5, and $10 double-ups and I think gives a solid idea each week of double-up roster percentages.

The Thought Process

Cash Locks (In My Opinion)

• In our Week 13 DFS Best Plays (which comes out on Saturdays for DFS Pass subscribers only), I shared the pool of players and this week was blatantly obvious who the top plays were. We pencilled in 4 of these players and they were virtual locks in cash.
• I cannot fathom someone playing cash this week without Zack Moss. I wrote: “You just don’t gain anything in 50/50 & H2H formats ignoring Zack Moss. … If your cash lineup fails this week, it will not be because of Moss regardless of what he does. You can expect 75+ percent of the field to play him.” I was wrong… 93% of the field played him! You might look at his 7.7 DK points and say, “he failed though!” Did he? The savings and popularity of Moss unlocked lineups in every single format. Heck, the Milly Maker winner had Moss in their lineup along with a cheap Greg Dortch. Evaluating lineups comes down to the collective, not just zeroing in on one player.
• Also, Tyreek Hill was screaming at us from the get-go all week. Betz and I made this abundantly clear on the podcast and the only thing you might’ve shied away from was the price tag. The splits in Miami wins were absurd (139 receiving ypg) coming in and the Washington secondary is arguably the worst in the NFL. With the savings across the board this week, if you tried to get cute and didn’t play Tyreek, you likely got buried.
• Brock Purdy was the QB we identified on Tuesday’s podcast, and Friday’s podcast, and solidified as the cover boy of our Best Plays. The matchup against a pass-funnel Philly defense was an obvious spot and his salary ($6100) was laughable. He started out rough in the 1st quarter but four passing TDs later, it was clear Purdy was far and away the best QB option on the slate when factoring in price.
• Before I go any further, I just want to reiterate how you evaluate your cash lineup decision points. Start with what project to be the best points per dollar play and ask the question, “Does the field likely feel the same?” If you were to fade this player at an elevated roster percentage (40+ %) and they hit or exceed their projection, will you pay for it? Those three plays (Moss, Tyreek & Purdy) were the building blocks of this slate.

Gut-Wrenching Decisions

My goal in this section is to discuss the pool of players I considered for cash and how I arrived at my final lineup.

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• At RB, Christian McCaffrey ($9000) is always in the mix but it’s just a question of whether you can fit him in budget-wise. Kyren Williams ($7200) was the only other high-priced RB I considered this week based on workload projection. In fact, those two RBs are #1 & #2 in points per game this year. The only way (in my opinion) CMC worked in lineup alongside Tyreek was if a value option at another position opened up. (Hint: It did with Brevin Jordan.) There were some valuable discussions in our #dfs Discord channel about CMC and the tough PHI matchup. I added this point: “When it comes down to projections, matchups kinda fade. We overvalue those a bit in DFS when counting players out (see: DK Metcalf last night)… if he doesn’t hit 18-20+ points in cash, I would be disappointed“
• In the middle tier at RB, there were several strong options but Rachaad White‘s role and matchup against Carolina was creeping through despite my own bias that he is not a great NFL talent. I bit the bullet once I looked at projections on Friday deciding that 15+ DK points felt very likely. I also thought he would be approaching 40+ % making a fade for a different option (Rhamondre Stevenson– $6000, Jaylen Warren– $5400) not exactly optimal.
• After Tyreek Hill, I had a tough time identifying which combination left me in the best spot in cash. I loved, loved, loved Michael Pittman Jr. ($7100) for his safety. He was our consensus WR2 with maybe the highest floor on the slate. Brandon Aiyuk ($7200) was my slate breaker on Friday’s podcast although three 49ers would’ve been too many in my opinion. Those two were my favorites by a mile and Pitty City was in my cash lineup for most of the week. Having two Colts in my cash lineup didn’t bother me at all as I also concluded that Josh Downs ($5100) was the “bargain version of Pitty City”. His 13 targets the previous week were screaming at me as “hitting the wrong side of variance” and if I wanted to fit Christian McCaffrey in this lineup, I needed to drop down further. This was by far the most uncomfortable spot in this lineup.
• At TE, it was a battle between David Njoku ($4100) and Juwan Johnson ($3400) for most of the week. I wasn’t married to either which made it much easier to drop down to stone min Brevin Jordan ($2500) when we received news that Dalton Schultz would miss this week. Punting at this position allowed me to fit in CMC and the projections of this construction were far surpassing the others where I paid in the middle tier. Normally, I don’t love having two punt options* in the same cash lineup (Parker AND Jordan). However, knowing Jordan would be especially chalky gives me a subtle backdoor escape clause* for this DFS mantra I often share.
• Punting WR always was on my radar this week. Greg Dortch ($3700), Elijah Moore ($3500), DeVante Parker ($3300), and A.T. Perry ($3300) were the names I sorted through. Dortch’s recent targets (8 & 9) were solid but I didn’t love his price nor the matchup against a heavy man coverage PIT unit. Once I knew Chris Olave would be coming out, Perry vanished along with Juwan Johnson this week. Moore had a rapport with Joe Flacco going back to their time with the Jets while Parker was the last man standing in New England with Demario Douglas out. It was a coinflip and I let salary decide between those two.
• At DST, I only considered two this week: ATL ($3400) or NE ($2400). It was a classic pay-up or punt situation which did make it more difficult than I wanted. I usually need the $1000 savings and I thought this rain-soaked game in Foxboro would turn into a dud. I wrote this in Best Plays: “This week comes down to paying perhaps a bit more than you normally would for DSTs against trash QBs. Tim Boyle should NOT be in the NFL so piling on in the lowest over/under of the week makes sense with Atlanta.” Despite my personal vendetta against my favorite NFL team, I played Atlanta knowing they would be more popular.
• I knew Pittman would be popular and projected well. If my cash lineup failed, this would be the 3v3 spot to zero in on: Pittman + Njoku + Jaylen Warren OR CMC + Jordan + Downs. Both combinations were viable with Pitty City balling out for 30.5 DK points including a game-winning OT TD.
• This was my projected lineup on Saturday morning. I decided not to tinker with it at all. The only news that came in was Chris Olave being active. I’ve been an Olave supporter from the get-go but I felt good about this lineup and didn’t waver.

Mistakes Were Made …

Every week I’ll highlight my biggest mistakes which range from not weighing low-end outcomes to assuming, to not thinking, and ultimately moving away from plays I started with. We’ve all been there… stay water. Don’t try to justify yourself or make things sound better than they were. You made a decision, now deal with it.

• On a slate that felt pretty straightforward, my only regret is not assessing my projections one more time before lock. I could’ve likely had my H2H % in the upper 80s if I took a little more time to compare Josh Downs with other options.
• Overall, the process felt clean, simple, and straightforward this week. I do recognize that I am sharing that thought in hindsight where I never really had much doubt this lineup would cash. I guess for a second Brock Purdy and the SF offense farted around in that 1st quarter…

2023 Results

Each week I’ll post my head-to-head (H2H) win percentage here to give you an idea of what type of week I had. Keep in mind there are varying price points, competition, and players who take my H2Hs in the lobby that have no rhyme or reason. The volume of my H2Hs differs each week due to my feeling of the slate and my weekend activities with my family. Every week I will also post the “cash line” from the $25 Double-Up from DraftKings.