Borg’s DFS Cash Lineup Review for Week 10
I must confess this was quite an emotional week.
On Friday, I shared some personal news on Twitter regarding my family taking the plunge to move to Arizona in the spring. Beyond the obvious changes in weather and the incredible opportunity to work in the studio with the rest of the Fantasy Footballers team, I’ve lived in Georgia my entire life. 34 years and I have to say I’ve been pretty fortunate. My family is super supportive of our life-altering decision; yet, I’ve also felt the pain of sharing this news with close friends. I’m continually reminded that the most valuable parts of my life are never going to show up on a feed or broadcast on a podcast.
I share all of that to remind myself and everyone playing DFS that our fantasy football lives don’t happen in a vacuum. While it can be a momentary escape from reality, the larger context of the relationships we have ultimately is the gold worth mining out over years and years. People talk often about “the grind” of fantasy football but the hardest work I’ve found in my life is maintaining meaningful, deep relationships with people.
It’s messy. It’s time-consuming. It’s not self-seeking. It’s also worthwhile.
If you’ve made it through my short personal monologue, I commend you. Thanks for letting me share a bit of my heart on a Monday.
Every week I want to unpack part of the process in assembling my cash game lineup. The goal is neither to boast or wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week.
For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, my thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including points scored and H2H record to stay accountable with you.
If you’re wanting to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on Cash Game Strategy. I also published an article on How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.
Week 10 Cash Lineup
Note: Roster percentages shown from NFL Massive $25 Double-Up [Single Entry] with 8,045 entrants. This contest gives one of the better sample sizes for cash in my opinion.
The Thought Process
Every week I identify my early cash game player pool on Tuesday’s DFS Podcast with Betz. This week I ran into a big problem: I liked a lot of players and early on, we were given some injury & COVID news which shaped the slate. Here is how this lineup unfolded throughout the week, a solid showing cashing in all my 50/50s and coming in strong in H2Hs.
- The high-end RBs seemed like premium plays and honestly a bit underpriced when I first analyzed the slate. Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook, and Najee Harris all were at the top of the list. JTT became a must-play given the matchup at home against Jacksonville and then the choice was further solidified when Marlon Mack was declared inactive. Taylor is on an unreal tear and should be north of $9K given his TD equity. At $8,100, he was a value in my book and a heavy favorite to hit the 100+ yard rushing bonus.
- When news broke about Nick Chubb going on the COVID list, D’Ernest Johnson became the chalkiest of chalk plays at only $4,600. When free squares like this open up, I usually try to poke holes in players to see where there could be paths to fail. However, we saw Johnson succeed when given the opportunity earlier in the year versus Denver. It was the feather in his cap I needed to lock him in by Thursday. I knew he would creep above 60-70 percent in 50/50s but was willing to eat the chalk.
- The other cheap RB that I considered was Mark Ingram. The price and the role in the Saints offense were enticing and he ended up getting there for those that rostered him. But I didn’t love the matchup nor having a lineup construction with two super chalky RBs who might not put up the raw points I might need. D’Ernest Johnson, in my opinion, was a much better play at his price and a better RB at this point in their careers. It ended up being a moot point. But that’s part of playing cash in DFS, stressing all week for something that is irrelevant.
- At QB, I never really wavered from Dak Prescott. While Tom Brady‘s matchup against Washington was on the table, Dak’s spot at home against Atlanta felt like a slam dunk at $6,900 especially coming off a down week.
- With my RBs and QB set up, the other choice that was clear from the start was the Jaguars’ Dan Arnold. The Postman’s targets (7.5 per game over last month) and salary ($3,500) made him way too easy to play. He was chalk because of the nature of a slate without any elite TEs.
- Najee Harris was in my lineup for most of the week given his insane workload and the matchup against the Lions. However, the Steelers trended downward as the news broke about Ben Roethlisberger‘s COVID test. Harris also popped up on the injury report late in the week. I had to rid myself of the Steelers and an offense already struggling to move the ball for most of the year with Big Ben. Diontae Johnson went from one of my favorite plays on the slate on Friday (with Chase Claypool out) to someone I could not trust with Mason Rudolph slinging the rock. In fact, the weather in Pittsburgh also pushed me to move down from the Titans DST to the Lions to save an extra $300.
- The WRs probably was where I did the most jumbling this week. When you look at my lineup, all three of my WRs put up underwhelming scores if I’m honest. Mike Evans was an early favorite with Chris Godwin questionable. Tyler Johnson was the cheapie of the week ($3300) that saw six targets the week before the bye in replacement of Antonio Brown. When news trended in the direction of Godwin being active, I went with Johnson as a salary saver knowing Evans was probably the most popular WR on the slate. It was a bit of a risk given Evans’ ability to put together monster games but this decision allowed me to spend up for two premium plays I wanted the entire week: Davante Adams & Dalvin Cook.
- Adams’ salary ($7900) and his role as THE target monster in the Green Bay offense felt like a must throughout the week. I couldn’t lock him in confidently until we knew that Aaron Rodgers was active. As I mentioned, Cook was one of the elite RBs I wanted from the very beginning of the week. The Chargers run funnel and Cook’s ability to provide absolute ceiling games is something I wanted to bake into my lineup construction. For the late-swap window, I had the combo of Justin Jefferson + Aaron Jones as my pivot from the chalkier Adams + Cook.
- The last spot in my lineup was Jeudy. I wasn’t crazy about the matchup nor expecting a big blow-up game. However, his salary and guaranteed targets in PPR scoring felt like a safe way to get access to double-digit points at $5,300.
- Looking back, fading Ingram felt like a solid decision as my lineup hovered above the cash line for most of the day. In the late window, the only players with significant enough roster percentage to “hurt me” were Keenan Allen and James Conner. While both ended up getting there, I finally put to bed any doubts of this lineup when Dalvin Cook plunged in for a goal-line TD.
|Week||DK Pts||H2H Win %|
Not going to lie, my lineup probably could’ve approached 90+ percent in H2Hs given the snowflakes some of the chalk (Mike Evans, Mark Ingram & James Conner) were putting up for most of the day before all three found the endzone late in their games. Regardless, I felt good about some of the high-floor decisions and it’s nice to score near that 150-point mark once again.
Check in the DFS First Look Pricing article that comes out Tuesday AM!