Betz’s Small Field GPP Review: Week 1 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome to a brand new article for the 2025 DFS season! I get most of my action in cash games and small field tournaments for DFS, shying away from the large field lottos. In this article each week throughout the NFL season, I’ll recap my lineup for small field GPPs on DraftKings, highlighting my process and strategy. For the 2025 season, I’ll be playing in the $30K Spy on DraftKings.
Contest Format
- $100 Single Entry
- Total Entrants: 334
- Placed Paid: 71/334 (20.6%)
- Rake: 9.9%
Week 1 Small Field GPP Lineup
The Thought Process
-There were a few games that really stuck out to me from a game stacking perspective, and we highlighted these matchups on the DFS Podcast: CIN/CLE, MIA/IND, CAR/JAX, and ATL/TB. In cash style contests, most people were playing either Jayden Daniels ($7,000) or Trevor Lawrence ($5,300). I figured those two QBs might get steamed up a bit in small field, so I opted to pivot to Daniel Jones, who was in the cash conversation, but definitely not in the top tier.
-With Danny Dimes projecting well in a great matchup against a horrendous Dolphins secondary in a game I wanted to stack, I liked the price on Dimes and leverage over Trevor Lawrence and Joe Flacco. I could feel those stacks getting steamed up a bit, and I was right. Flacco (16.5%) and T Law (16.2%) were the two most rostered QBs in this contest, so I’m really happy with the thought process and decision to get leverage off them with Jones.
-Another two reasons I landed on a Jones team is because 1) I knew I could get access to his pass catchers at sub 10% and 2) Jonathan Taylor was in the cash conversation as one of the top RB plays on the slate. I figured he’d push 20%+ in this contest, so if I just got this one thing right, I knew I’d have a lot of leverage on the field playing Jonathan Taylor with Flacco or Lawrence. I underestimated how steamed Jonathan Taylor got here in small field – he came in at a whopping 35%!
-As for my stacking partner with Jones, I debated Pittman ($4,900), Josh Downs ($4,600) and of course, Tyler Warren ($4,400). In this spot, in particular Week 1, I wanted to lean into uncertainty with some of the rookies. This is a classic “play it before you see it” type of play in DFS where the projection systems aren’t going to be able to capture accurate information on a player making his first career start. We’ve been high on Warren throughout the offseason, and in the preseason, it was obvious he was going to be a focal point of the game plan. I really wanted to lean into the idea of “what if Warren is just that good?” In addition, he was just $300 less than David Njoku, who I knew was the top cash TE on the slate. Njoku came in at 42% in this contest, so again – very happy with my process to land on this low owned Daniel Jones to Tyler Warren stack.
-In small field GPPs, I usually try to game stack and sometimes, I don’t even mind going all in with a game stack, playing 4-5 players from the same game. Again, we don’t need to be perfect in these contests, so if you just get that one game right in terms of the one that pops off for fantasy, you can vault up the leaderboard somewhat quickly. I really felt like MIA/IND had a great ceiling chance given how bad the Dolphins’ defense projected on paper and because we’ve seen this Dolphins offense be ultra explosive and efficient. Obviously, that was a complete swing and a miss (the vibes are #bad), but that’s what led to me Achane and Waddle, who I knew would come in pretty low owned in smaller field contests.
-After getting onto some contrarian pieces, I was able to lean into some of my favorite chalk plays on slate. In these contests with less than 500 people, I’m not looking to roster every player sub 10%. The best plays are the best plays for a reason, and I’m always trying to get some of those in these lineups. Once Darnell Mooney was ruled out, Drake London at just $6,500 against the Bucs became arguably the top WR play on the slate. In hindsight, I did not expect him to be nearly 50% rostered, but the projectable volume was just too good to pass up in full PPR in this dome matchup against a Tampa defense that invites you to throw.
-At RB, there were a clear top 3-5 plays on the slate for cash: DeVon Achane, Jonathan Taylor, Chase Brown and James Conner. I was fine playing one or two of those guys, but I absolutely did not want to play three of that quartet given the projected ownership. I was already playing MIA/IND, so I landed on Achane and then opted for Alvin Kamara, who I knew would get squeezed in small field. He only projected for a couple of points less than Conner and Brown, yet Kamara is the non-sexy player that people weren’t excited to click. Easy leverage opportunity at a similar price point to these other backs.
–Christian McCaffrey was a complete question mark as of Friday’s DNP. In cash, I did not think playing him was worth the risk, but in tournaments, I figured he might come in around 15-20ish%. Just a few days ago, he was projecting as the best play on the slate hands down. At that roster percentage in small field, I had a strong conviction that McCaffrey was awesome leverage, and sure there was plenty of risk with him, but I felt that at that pOwn, the risk was worth it for a player who could go for 30 if he’s actually healthy. I did have a plan in the late window to pivot to Nico Collins or Amon-Ra St. Brown had McCaffrey been ruled out.
With the Benefit of Hindsight
-I had strong conviction that Drake London was going to become pretty popular, but if I knew he’d come in close to 50%, I likely would not have played him. Any WR can fail any week, and at that level of ownership, I fade probably would have been the smart move. That was a miss on my part in terms of his projected pOwn in small field as I thought he might push 30%.
-I viewed Jerry Jeudy as strong leverage off David Njoku, but if I was fading Flacco here, I probably should have faded Jeudy as well. He projected well, but as I noted when talking with Kyle on the Friday Podcast, we all love Flacco for his YOLO ball, but there’s a ton of duds in his game logs too. He’s not exactly the best real life NFL QB at this stage of his career, after all.
–Emeka Egbuka was the top cash WR play on the slate at just $4,600. Knowing that he would be wildly popular (came in at 49.7%!), I went into this contest with the goal to fade and hope for the best, especially considering I knew A LOT of the field would play both Egbuka and London together in the same game. I tried to ‘Max 1’ here to avoid too much ownership, and while I do feel good about that process, perhaps I should have just ate the chalk given his egregious price tag and matchup.
Weekly Results:
- Week 1: 35th place, $250
Comments
very interesting seeing your process
Love your process and glad it worked out despite fading Egbuka. Thanks for the writeup!