How to Leverage Regression Candidates in Best Ball Drafts (Fantasy Football)
Fantasy football drafters are quite reactionary, aren’t we? After all, we just had 17 weeks plus the playoffs to watch the season unfold. We now have data. We now have new tape, and now we have an idea of what will happen again in 2025, right? Not so fast! Every year, we see best ball drafters select players based on previous season data. Now, obviously, these data points that we’ve collected over the last 12 months do mean something, but we see it every year…
In 2022 and 2023, zero RB drafters crushed, so naturally in 2024, WRs were flying off the board. If you took a step back and pivoted to a more RB-heavy approach, your teams probably performed well. In 2024, we were drafting elite TEs pretty early. Now? TEs are pushed down the board after some of the perceived “elite” options like Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid and Evan Engram failed miserably.
These are just a couple of examples of macro trends that, generally speaking, shape the ADP landscape the following year. In other words, the market tends to take whatever just happened the previous season and assume that those trends will continue the following year. We can absolutely take advantage of this when we find inefficiencies in the market, both from a 1,000-foot view standpoint and from a player-level micro standpoint. Throughout the summer, Kyle and I will be discussing more of these trends and the ADP landscape from a higher level view, but for the purpose of this article, we’re going to be highlighting a few of our most obvious regression candidates and how to handle those players in best ball drafts.
In other words, these are some of our bigger underweight stances as we kick off the Summer of Best Ball. Could these players work out again in 2025? Of course, but best ball is all about opportunity cost and understanding how likely it is that a player will “pay off” their ADP. The following players will have a tough time paying off their current ADP given some of the statistical regression that is likely to hit.
Editor’s Note: If you’re looking for Borg & Betz’s Best Ball Rankings, you can find them in the Ultimate Draft Kit+ along with the Best Ball Primer, which is available on June 1.
RB Jonathan Taylor
ADP: RB8, 19.7 Overall
Look no further than Jonathan Taylor‘s end of 2024 run to get a sense of what JTT could do at any point in the season. The man was a maniac down the stretch and an absolute late season hammer for teams that were able to advance him to the best ball playoffs. His final three stat lines as a runner:
- 29/218/3
- 32/125/2
- 34/177/1
Yup, that’ll work! His 520 rushing yards over the final three games were the fifth-most yards of all time! In fact, 38% of his total fantasy points a year ago came in those final three games. That said, if we zoom out and look at his total body of work in 2024, it left a lot to be desired.
Taylor has always been an electric runner of the football who’s capable of huge games, but after some ankle injuries in recent years, it’s definitely fair to question if he’s the same back he was a few years ago when he finished as the RB1 overall for fantasy. Last season, among 46 qualified backs that logged 100+ carries, Taylor ranked 42nd in forced missed tackle rate, and he was 44th in yards after contact per attempt. As a pass catcher, things have gotten potentially even worse as his targets per route run have also declined every single season of his pro career:
With two mobile QBs in Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones under center, that’s highly unlikely to change in 2025, especially with the increased target competition via the addition of first round TE, Tyler Warren. Taylor has essentially morphed into a 2-down RB and while he is still capable of huge rushing games, it’s really tough to crack the top 8 or so RBs without some level of contribution from the passing game. Coming off the board as a top-20 pick, Taylor is a guy we’re probably going to be underweight in 2025 at these prices.
Consensus Ranking: 25th Overall
RB Josh Jacobs
ADP: RB9, 21.0 Overall
Think back to the discussion around Josh Jacobs and the Green Bay RB room last summer. We spent months debating whether or not Jacobs would be used like a true workhorse given Matt LeFleur’s history of using a committee approach. In hindsight, we got our answer as Jacobs was fifth in the NFL in total touches as Green Bay’s engine, finishing as the RB5 in fantasy football.
But the one glaring question regarding last year’s situation is whether not that’s what the Packers wanted to do or whether or not it happened because of Marshawn Lloyd‘s inability to get on the field because of injury. We’re not saying Jacobs wouldn’t have been the heavy favorite to lead the backfield in touches even if Lloyd stayed healthy, but one thing is clear: Jacobs ran quite pure in 2024 and was one of just six RBs with 300+ carries a year ago.
Historically speaking, that has not been a recipe for success the following year. As you can see in the chart below, from 2020 to 2023, there have been 10 RBs who have logged 330+ touches in a season and every one of those RBs saw a decline of at least 45 touches the following season.
Granted, some of these backs like Henry, Jacobs himself, Saquon, etc. missed some games due to injury, so this is not a perfect stat by any means. However, it does highlight how difficult it is to sustain this level of workload and stay on the football field less than 12 months later. Zero RB drafters a year ago felt this in a big way as 2024 was the year of the workhorse RB. Could Jacobs smash again in 2025? Of course, but his chances of doing so, at least based on recent history, are less than what they were a year ago.
In addition to the likely volume regression, Jacobs is also a candidate to find the end zone at a lower frequency in 2025. He scored in every game from Week 11 on with 12 total TDs in his final eight games played. This is a good offense that should have scoring opportunities, but if the TD production swings back to Jordan Love and the pass game a little bit, Jacobs could have a really tough time replicating his career-best 16 total TDs.
Consensus Ranking: 23rd overall
RB Kyren Williams
ADP: RB12, 29.5 Overall
Did you see Kyren’s name listed above? Yep, we have a few red flags that we need to bring up related to his top-30 price tag. Despite finishing as the RB6 on the back of 16 rushing TDs, the efficiency numbers are concerning if you want to start poking holes. Among 46 qualifying RBs with 100+ carries:
- 44th in Explosive Rush Rate
- 45th in Fumbles
- 34th in Yards per Carry
In fact, his 4.1 yards per carry ranks 37th out of 39 RBs over the last decade who accumulated 1200+ rushing yards in a season. Only 1.9% of carries went for 15+ yards so you know the home run-hitting ability isn’t there. You can spin a contract year narrative but in order for Kyren to pay off, he needs 15+ TDs yet again. We have a plethora of RBs with similar TD profiles going after him (Joe Mixon, Kenneth Walker III, or even David Montgomery) and his pass-catching work has steadily declined without anyone noticing. Despite running the 4th most routes among RBs, he ranked dead last among 52 qualifying RBs in TPRR (12%) and YPRR (0.56) as an afterthought in the offense. Will Blake Corum and 4th round pick Jarquez Hunter be more involved int the offense in 2025? We’ve seen some quotes recently from GM Les Snead and HC Sean McVay that do have us worried.
Les Snead on the backfield rotation in 2024 vs. 2025
is making me more nervous about Kyren
if Sean McVay ends up echoing these committee sentiments, it may be a wrap https://t.co/ZdIfjbbHGi pic.twitter.com/Gght8ohVjD
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 3, 2025
Consensus Ranking: 32nd overall
RB James Cook
ADP: RB14, 38.9 Overall
Jimbo was HIMbo in 2024. Cook finished the season as the RB8 and was a great best ball pick at his 2024 ADP. He proved one thing: TDs are really hard to predict! After being labeled as a guy who didn’t score TDs in 2023, Cook proved that wrong in 2024, hitting pay dirt 18 times! But you can tell where we’re going with this…
In three years as a pro, Cook has logged 2, 2 and 16 rushing TDs. Can you spot the outlier? What’s even more wild about that jump in TD production is that Cook actually had fewer opportunities, snaps, and yards than he did back in 2023. As you can see in the table below, RB1s in fantasy who’s production has largely come from TDs is generally a red flag the following season. A whopping 43% of his fantasy points last season came via TDs, and over the last six years, every fantasy RB1 who had 38+% of his points come via TDs had a decline the following season in points per game. We obviously love the Bills offense and want pieces of that team, but Cook’s regression signals are clear as day. Coming off the board as a top-40 overall pick, we’re holding off and hoping to get a better price on Cook later this summer.
Consensus Ranking: 49th Overall
WR Terry McLaurin
ADP: WR16, 32.0 Overall
You know this is Betz’s boy, so 2024 had to feel good after touting Terry for years. However, it’s time to take a step back and realize that McLaurin is one of the biggest regression candidates in fantasy football, and what’s worse, is that he’s now being drafted like an elite fantasy asset as the 16th WR off the board. We love Jayden Daniels and this Commanders offense, but this Jayden-to-Terry stack is much, much more expensive than it was a season ago.
Scary Terry is now one of just 10 WRs since 2000 with 13+ receiving TDs on fewer than 125 targets, and in fact, he logged the fewest receiving yards (1,096) by a Top-6 Fantasy WR since 2017 when Jarvis Landry had 987 yards. He clearly ran insanely hot with his TD totals a season ago, and on top of the TD luck, McLaurin also set a career high in contested catch rate, hauling in nearly two-thirds of those contested targets a season ago. With those stats being somewhat fluky year to year, McLaurin is going to have to see a lot more volume to offset the inevitable regression in 2025. Unfortunately, that’s unlikely to happen with Jayden Daniels‘ rushing rate and the increased target competition in the form of Deebo Samuel.
Consensus Ranking: 45th Overall
QB Joe Burrow
ADP: QB5, 50.5 Overall
Remember the end of the 2024 season for Burrow and the Cincy passing attack? Hot. Magma. From Weeks 9-17, Burrow averaged 26.4 fantasy points, producing like an elite QB1 on the back of 331 passing yards per game and 3.4 passing TDs per game. Only Josh Allen scored more fantasy points in that sample. And of course, because Burrow was incredible, we’re now paying the tax when it comes to his ADP after he slipped all the way to the 80s last summer.
Don’t get us wrong, Burrow is fully capable of putting together ceiling games and being a valuable piece of best ball rosters, but the big issue here is that Burrow is a non-rushing QB who’s being priced right next to the elite of the elite rushing QBs. If Burrow’s passing efficiency comes down at all, it’s going to be really tough for him to return value at his QB5 price tag. In 2024, Burrow set career highs in pass attempts (652), completion percentage (71%) and TDs (43) as the Bengals were the NFL’s most pass centric offense. They’ll certainly be among the league leaders in PROE once again with Burrow, Chase and Tee at the center of the game plan, but counting on that level of volume and TD efficiency could be fool’s gold.
There have been 22 instances in NFL history where a QB threw for 40+ TDs. 21 of those 22 QBs saw a drop in their TD rate the following year by an average of 1.9%.
| Year | Player | Team | Pass TDs | TD% | Next Yr TDs | Next Yr TD % |
TD Rate Change
|
| 1984 | Dan Marino | MIA | 48 | 8.5 | 30 | 5.3 | -3.2 |
| 1986 | Dan Marino | MIA | 44 | 7.1 | 26 | 5.9 | -1.2 |
| 1999 | Kurt Warner | STL | 41 | 8.2 | 21 | 6.1 | -2.1 |
| 2004 | Peyton Manning | IND | 49 | 9.9 | 28 | 6.2 | -3.7 |
| 2007 | Tom Brady | NE | 50 | 8.7 | INJ | INJ | — |
| 2011 | Matthew Stafford | DET | 41 | 6.2 | 20 | 2.8 | -3.4 |
| 2011 | Drew Brees | NO | 46 | 7.0 | 43 | 6.4 | -0.6 |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 45 | 9.0 | 39 | 7.1 | -1.9 |
| 2012 | Drew Brees | NO | 43 | 6.4 | 39 | 6.0 | -0.4 |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | DEN | 55 | 8.3 | 39 | 6.5 | -1.8 |
| 2014 | Andrew Luck | IND | 40 | 6.5 | 15 | 5.1 | -1.4 |
| 2016 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 40 | 6.6 | 16 | 6.7 | 0.1 |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 50 | 8.6 | 26 | 5.4 | -3.2 |
| 2020 | Tom Brady | TB | 40 | 6.6 | 43 | 6.0 | -0.6 |
| 2020 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 40 | 7.2 | 25 | 6.3 | -0.9 |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 48 | 9.1 | 37 | 7.0 | -2.1 |
| 2021 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 41 | 6.8 | 10 | 3.3 | -3.5 |
| 2021 | Tom Brady | TB | 43 | 6.0 | 25 | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 41 | 6.3 | 27 | 4.5 | -1.8 |
| 2024 | Baker Mayfield | TB | 41 | 7.2 | ? | ? | ? |
| 2024 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 43 | 6.6 | ? | ? | ? |
| 2024 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 41 | 8.6 | ? | ? | ? |
Consensus Ranking: 64th Overall
TE Jonnu Smith
ADP: TE6, 98.0 Overall
Jonnu was a revelation last year. Going un-drafted for a period of best ball season, Smith was a massive win rate player as a guy who was routinely picked in the 15th-18th round. Of course, he finished with over 800 yards and 8 TDs, good for the TE4 overall finish. This year, Smith is being selected as a top-100 player in the “dead zone” at TE. Historically speaking the hit rate on players being selected in this range have failed relative to expectation, and there’s some numbers here that suggest regression could hit for Miami TE.
Among all TEs with 100+ routes, Jonnu was third in first downs per route run despite his average depth of target being just 5.0 yards according to PFF. In other words, Smith was hyper-efficient with his opportunities considering that most of his targets came close to the line of scrimmage. Smith is a great athlete and a nice YAC player, but if those efficiency marks come down a bit in 2025, it’ll be tough to get there as the TE6.
In addition to the efficiency marks, Smith is coming off a career season with 111 targets, 88 receptions and a 79% catch rate. All three of those marks were the best of his career, and his 8 receiving TDs were tied for the most he’s had since entering the league. Prior to 2024, Smith had never had more than 70 targets or 50 catches in a single season, and according to PFF’s model, Smith’s expected TD output was just 6.2. If the volume regresses a bit here, and Smith isn’t quite as fortuante in the TD department, it’s going to be really difficult to replicate that top-5 fantasy season we just saw. Coming off the board as the TE6, there’s very little room for error here. We’ll see what happens with the moving parts down in Miami in the form of Tyreek and Waddle, but would anyone be shocked if he took a backseat to those more explosive options in 2025?
Consensus Ranking: 104th Overall
TE Mark Andrews
ADP: TE8, 106.6 Overall
This one stings…we love you, Mark. However, to say that Andrews got lucky in the TD department in 2024 would be an understatement. Andrews finished the year with 11 TDs, helping him “get there” for fantasy. Sadly, the underlying numbers say that is highly unlikely to happen again in 2025. Per PFF, Andrews’ expected TD total was just 6.5, so he out-performed in the TD totals by 4.5. No TE was more fortunate when it comes to finding the end zone…
Almost 30 years old, it’s certainly fair to wonder if Andrews is the same player he was a few seasons ago. In three straight years, we’ve seen his targets per route run, his yards per route run, and his routes per game drop in consecutive seasons. In other words, we have a player who’s running fewer routes, and when he’s running those routes, he’s been less efficient. Andrews is also coming off a season where he saw just a 15% target market share, his lowest rate since his rookie year back in 2018. A lower target share + insane TD rate on that lower volume = major red flag for 2025 in terms of his statistical output.
| Year | Routes/Game | TPRR | YPRR |
| 2022 | 31.1 | 25.5% | 1.97 |
| 2023 | 29.0 | 21.4% | 1.93 |
| 2024 | 23.4 | 19.5% | 1.88 |
In addition to the statistical regression concerns, there’s also some team level concerns here after Andrews was involved in trade conversations with some debates about whether or not the Ravens would try to move on and save some money. Entering the summer, Andrews’ roster spot looks safe, but we do need to acknowledge that this is probably the end of the road for Andrews in a Ravens uniform as he’s set to hit free agency after this year. He’s not nearly as expensive as he’s been in recent seasons, but even at this ADP, we’re having a tough time painting a ceiling case for the official TE of the DFS & Betting Pod.
Consensus Ranking: 112th Overall