Wide Receiver Average Auction Value Tiers (Fantasy Football)

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For this series of articles, I’ve taken auction values from five auction drafts that occurred over the past few months with real money on the line(not from mock drafts). The settings for these drafts were 12-Teams, $200 budget, PPR, QB-2RB-3WR-TE-Flex-PK-DEF, 18 players per team. These were BestBall drafts where lineups are optimized each week without the need for setting lineups, Head-to-Head matchups, or playoffs. Unlike most BestBall drafts, each team can make up to one waiver wire move per week. While these settings may not align perfectly with what you’ll see in your drafts, these values are a good way to ballpark values and create strategies for your drafts.

From a 20,000 foot view, WRs values are trailing RB values by a significant margin. Only seven WRs compared to 14 RBs are priced $30 or more, but the script flips in the $16 to $26 range with 16 WRs occupying only two Average Auction Value Tiers. This allows auction drafters to develop a huge number of options to build their WR corps around how they want to build the best possible team with a particular focus on the RB position.

*A quick note about Average Auction Value Tiers(AAVT) because this isn’t a term that’s used very often(or ever since I invented it just now). Last year I used the term Auction Value Tier, but it’s too easily confused with values and tiers within rankings or projections. Average Auction Value Tiers are based solely on actual prices from drafts with buy-ins and cash prizes. They are what ‘is’ as opposed to what ‘should be.’

WR Average Auction Value Tier 1
AAVT 1 Players AAV High/Low
Michael Thomas $48.8 $53/45

Michael Thomas owns AAVT 1 by such a wide margin that I was tempted to leave AAVT 2 blank and skip right to AAVT 3 with the next highest WR AAVs a full $10 cheaper.  What’s more surprising is his AAV in relation to the top RBs. Thomas’ AAV puts him slightly above Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara making him the third-most-expensive player drafted. We might be under drafting him in snake drafts, although he is still well behind Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley in auction drafts.

WR Average Auction Value Tier 2
AAVT 2 Players AAV High/Low
Davante Adams $37.8 $41/32
Tyreek Hill $37.8 $39/37
DeAndre Hopkins $38.6($34.5) $42/$33

Davante Adams is normally well ahead of Tyreek Hill in ADP, but we see them tied here. This might be in part because of the BestBall nature of these drafts. I would expect to bid a few dollars more for Adams than Hill in most auction drafts as we approach the start of the season. DeAndre Hopkins probably would have created a tier of his own if he were still in HOU, but his overall AAV dropped once he was traded($36 and $33). If the trend continues, he may actually drop into the next WR tier.

WR Average Auction Value Tier 3
AAVT 3 Players AAV High/Low
Chris Godwin $35.2 $37/$32
Julio Jones $33.8 $35/$33

It looks like we’re buying Chris Godwin over Julio Jones. What’s interesting is that DeAndre Hopkins’ most recent auction values would land him right in the middle of these two. Looking at it on a draft-by-draft basis, Godwin has been more expensive than Jones in four out of the five drafts yet Jones is almost always drafted ahead of Godwin in snake drafts.

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WR Average Auction Value Tier 4
AAVT 4 Players AAV High/Low
Mike Evans $30.0 $32/$25
Kenny Golladay $28.2 $32/$24
Amari Cooper $27.4 $38/$23

I don’t know that I trust that Amari Cooper‘s AAV. He’s been $26 or less in every draft except that monster $38 bid. That $15 spread between his high and low bid is the largest of all WRs. I debated about placing him in the next tier. For reference, Tyreek Hill’s high bid was $39 and no other WR in this tier or Tier 3 had a bid of $38 or more.

WR Average Auction Value Tier 5
AAVT 5 Players AAV High/Low
Odell Beckham $25.6 $29/23
Allen Robinson $25.4 $29/23
Cooper Kupp $24.6 $27/19
D.J. Moore $24.4 $27/22
JuJu Smith-Schuster $24.2 $27/18
Calvin Ridley $23.8 $27/19
Adam Thielen $22.4 $26/20
A.J. Brown $21.4 $26/19

There are so many WRs going between $15 and $25 that it’s hard to determine where the tier breaks should be. In the end, I grouped them based on similar high/low bids. I don’t see how you leave a draft without at least one of these WRs.

WR Average Auction Value Tier 6

These WRs may not have WR1 upside, but they’re solid WR2 producers:

AAVT 6 Players AAV High/Low
Tyler Lockett $19.8 $28/16
Courtland Sutton $19.2 $21/17
DK Metcalf $18.8 $23/17
Robert Woods $18.4 $23/16
Stefon Diggs $17.8 $21/15
Keenan Allen $17.8 $21/13
Terry McLaurin $17.0 $19/15
T.Y. Hilton $16.0 $18/13

You could easily fill out your WR corps with players from AAVT 5 and 6 for $60, which would leave you more than enough to afford two high-tier RBs.

WR Average Auction Value Tier 7
AAVT 7 Players AAV High/Low
D.J. Chark $15.0 $19/9
A.J. Green $13.6 $20/10
Deebo Samuel $13.4 $17/9
DeVante Parker $12.8 $19/9

Deebo Samuel is in here, but his low bid came after he suffered the Jones Fracture to his left foot. He may bounce to a tier higher or lower depending on the status of his recovery as the season draws closer.

WR Average Auction Value Tier 8

I straight up don’t know why some of these WRs aren’t going for higher bids:

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AAVT 8 Players AAV High/Low
Michael Gallup $11.6 $17/7
Jarvis Landry $11.4 $14/8
Tyler Boyd $11.4 $16/7
Julian Edelman $10.8 $15/8
Marquise Brown $10.8 $15/9

I would be thrilled to have any of these players as my flex especially Jarvis Landry.

WR Average Auction Value Tier 9

Here are your sleeper and value plays:

AAVT 9 Players AAV High/Low
Marvin Jones $9.0 $13/4
Will Fuller $8.4 $11/7
Jamison Crowder $8.0 $11/5
Brandin Cooks $7.8 $16/3
Mecole Hardman $7.4 $13/2
Diontae Johnson $7.0 $15/3
Emmanuel Sanders $7.0 $11/4

One of the biggest arbitrage questions in drafts: Kenny Golladay for $28 or Marvin Jones for $9?

WR Average Auction Value Tier 10

We haven’t seen any rookies, because they’re all here:

AAVT 10 Players AAV High/Low
Christian Kirk $8.8($5.5) $13/4
Jerry Jeudy $6.2 $9/4
John Brown $6.0 $8/1
CeeDee Lamb $5.6 $9/4
Henry Ruggs $5.4 $11/3
Justin Jefferson $5.2 $15/1
Mike Williams $5.0 $8/3

Christian Kirk was a solid AAVT 8 WR with an AAV of $11 until ARI traded for DeAndre Hopkins. Now Kirk is priced as a depth piece.

Comments

thegoat715 says:

Thanks for the article. Can you update with Tier 5 WRs?

Kenneth Gonzales says:

Tier 5 WRs omitted

Chad says:

Great article, love the auction content. Note that your Tier 5 WRs seem to have been inadvertently omitted, though.

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