What To Do With Breshad Perriman in Fantasy Football
Full Disclosure: The original intention of this article was a full-blown disparagement of Breshad Perriman. Due to his head coach and own roller-coaster history, I was here to caution the fantasy community of boarding his inevitable hype-train, a la DeVante Parker pre-2019. Then, I looked at the current ADP. I scrolled and scrolled, started at the top and scrolled again, and then it hit me “Breshad Perriman has no ADP“.
While I’m all for avoiding overblown players, there are 80+ WRs being drafted in fantasy football right now and Perriman should be one of them, So, instead of destroying this man, I’m going to take this opportunity to help set his value and hope that I don’t create a monster.
Anything good being said about Perriman likely starts (and ends) with the last five weeks of 2019. In his 4th year as a pro, Perriman’s best game to this point was three catches for 64 yards and a TD. He had never had more than four catches or 81 yards in a game. In Week 13, one week before Mike Evans or Chris Godwin got injured, Perriman had a then career-week against Jacksonville with five receptions for 87 yards. Perriman would go on to have solid games each and every week to end the year. He had seven receptions in Week 16, three TDs in Week 13, and over 100 yards in Weeks 15, 16, and 17. Perriman had played 51 games in his career, but the numbers he put up on those final five games, 25/506/5, were equal to 26% of career receptions, 32% of his career yardage, and 45% of his career TDs.
Before we get all excited about those last five games…we already know Perriman’s ceiling in this New York offense. Perriman will be, for better or worse, exactly what Robby Anderson was for this team. Anderson was the high-YPC, low catch-rate, outside WR and that is a snap-shot of Perriman’s career. Anderson’s career catch-rate: 54%. Anderson’s catch-rate in 2019: 54%. Perriman’s 2019: 51%. Perriman’s career: 48%. Perriman does sport a 15.5 YPC to Anderson’s 14.7 but I think the point is clear: They do the same thing.
This where things stop making sense. In 2019, fantasy football drafters were taking Anderson in the 7th Round. They’re still drafting him in the 10th Round this year in a far-more crowded WR corps in Carolina. But we’re not drafting Perriman at all? To be fair, Anderson was one of the most inconsistent players to own in fantasy football last year but he still finished the year as the WR39. If Perriman merely duplicates his season, he may end up a steal in fantasy drafts…and I hate myself for saying that.
Adam Gase’s offense destroys the value of deep-threat WRs. During his woeful time as an NFL head coach, Gase had exactly one fantasy WR1, and that was Jarvis Landry with one of the most inefficient seasons we’ve seen in fantasy football. His success with big-play WRs was left in Denver with Peyton Manning. Sam Darnold is not Peyton Manning. If any WR on this team is going to put up consistent fantasy stats, it will be Jamison Crowder out of the slot. In 2019, Anderson had eight games where he failed to hit five fantasy points. The story is the same during Gase’s time in Miami. To make matters worse, Perriman is coming from the offense that threw the ball 109 more times than the Jets did in 2019. But even with those same cards stacked against him, Robby Anderson still managed a top-40 fantasy season.
As much as it hurts, and I’m shaking my head as I type this, draft Breshad Perriman with your last pick. Is he going to be a WR1? Absolutely not, he probably won’t even finish as a WR2. But are 80 other WRs going to outscore him? Absolutely not. He is going to have great weeks and terrible weeks and you’re probably going to guess wrong a few times but for free at the end of your draft, he is certainly worth a flyer. He can fill in on your bye weeks and you might even be able to get good trade value after he has a “boom” week. While I’m happy to see there is no hype-train for Perriman, not drafting him at all is a step too far to avoid his inconsistency.