Three Receivers With the Potential to Crush Their Current ADP (Fantasy Football)

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Fantasy football is a game where we pick players that we hope will score a lot of points. That’s the general concept. When looking deeper, it’s actually a game that’s very similar to financial markets, sports betting, and even trying to get a promotion at some of our day jobs. We want to find assets that will perform better than the general public expects them to, and we’re rewarded if we find more than everyone else. The data point we use in fantasy football to determine whether or not we succeeded is ADP or average draft position. If the fantasy market (all of the people drafting) forms a consensus, then we need to find players that will perform better than that consensus. It’s not as easy to identify receivers that outperform ADP as it is running backs, but there are a few of them that pop up every year. The key is always finding guys that are tied to either a pass-heavy offense or an elite quarterback. Sometimes both.

ADP mentioned here is from best ball ADP at Underdog since it’s the most commonly used platform for drafting this early in the year:

Michael Gallup 

Current Best Ball ADP: 113.5

Positional ADP: WR54

I think the keys that type Michael Gallup’s name on my keyboard have to be completely worn out by now, because I have been screaming about his talent for multiple years. Much to my dismay, he hasn’t turned into a fantasy star in the way I had hoped. He never set the world on fire, but his full body of work has shown that he’s a high-quality NFL receiver who would be a top option on plenty of teams around the league. Amari Cooper has been the biggest roadblock for him throughout his career, and CeeDee Lamb’s ascension certainly didn’t help. He’s likely to be the Robin to CeeDee’s batman in 2022, but Cooper’s departure should lead to full-time snaps for Gallup, something that hasn’t happened for him up until this point. 

The Dallas offense will be explosive and productive for every pass catcher in town, and Dak Prescott is a top-tier quarterback who can make throws to every part of the field. The erosion of Ezekiel Elliott will lead to even more prioritization of the passing game, and CeeDee Lamb will help Gallup face plenty of single coverage looks and demand red zone usage. I would not be shocked at all to see him finish as a top 25 receiver in fantasy for the year, and his explosive play ability and touchdown upside should make him an enticing weekly flex option at the bare minimum. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown 

Current Best Ball ADP: 70.2 

Positional ADP: WR34

Before you roll your eyes at another St. Brown opinion, try to remember that his explosion at the end of last year was not something that happens often. In fact, I’d be inclined to use the word historic. His 90 receptions in 2022 were tied for the fifth-most by a rookie receiver in NFL history, and he only started 9 games on the year. 

Read that last sentence again. Despite the ridiculous polarization surrounding him in the dynasty community, it’s very possible that we are still overlooking St. Brown. 

The Lions’ offense was missing some key pieces over the final stretch of the 2021 season, but this type of breakout on any offense in the NFL doesn’t go unnoticed and doesn’t happen simply because targets become available. St. Brown was an electric playmaker who not only capitalized on his opportunity but forced the Lions organization into giving him a whole lot more of it. Veteran receivers are given similar target bumps every week in the NFL due to injuries or roster moves, and more often than not they sputter on Sunday. The Lions rookie took the league by storm week in and week out. He was given the chance to produce, but he earned the production. Once you bake in the second-year leap for rookie receivers and the long road ahead for Jameson Williams, all signs point to a potential fantasy star in 2022. 

Donovan Peoples-Jones 

Current BestBall ADP: 181.1 

Positional ADP: WR79 

DPJ is a name that I brought up a couple of times last year for dynasty purposes, and I’m going to continue to drive this train here. The early draft ADP seems to indicate that the fantasy community may be underreacting to the Deshaun Watson addition in Cleveland. From a strictly football perspective, Watson has made every offensive asset around him better in both real life and in fantasy. Will Fuller was a textbook deep threat who turned into a bona fide WR1 for his team, partially because of the connection he had with Watson. DeAndre Hopkins was a different kind of animal, but we’ve seen the fantasy impact of his departure from the Texans and from Watson, too. 

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The Browns may still be a run-leaning offense in 2022, but the accuracy and playmaking ability of their new quarterback is going to produce results for the pass catchers. Amari Cooper just joined the fold as well, and he should obviously be the top dog right away, but behind him, there is very little experience to work with. David Bell should be a factor from day one, but rookie receivers often take time to grow into their roles and Bell is a possession receiver as opposed to a downfield threat. 

Peoples-Jones is a freakish athlete who made strides last season in his route running and separation ability. The former Michigan Wolverine lead the Browns receiving corps in both yardage and touchdowns last season, and the quarterback upgrade here is monumental. His numbers weren’t too impressive on their own, but ending the season as the statistical WR1 on his team is an underrated testament to the talent he possesses. That same talent could be put on display with someone like Watson behind center. It’s very possible that DPJ produces WR3 numbers in 2022 through downfield efficiency and playmaking in the play-action game. He should have no issue smashing his outrageous WR79 draft position. I’m paying close attention to his season-long prop lines once they’re released by the sportsbooks.

Comments

Perry says:

Two years ago I thought Gallup looked like he could be a breakout star but then when he was needed to be counted on when Cooper
does his disappearing acts he would just have stone hands. The small windows we have seen when the Cowboys have needed catches from him the past make me definitely not trust him for a fantasy starter. A bench guy to see how it works out yes

david millecam says:

kinda forgot to mention david bell hasnt droped a pass whole camp also… we are in 2022..why do i feel like people lying to me all the time. like antino gibson thats a lie about rook. gota watch that rivera same guy who said samual good another week but he looking good ok coach heard that all year and you not calling plays. cuss im pretty sure gibson got back to back 1,000 yards and 10 tds both years and is #1 in tds per game at 54% per game and 19.3 per ppr when he score. now me i do my research little too much. you watch tuner on that interview during mini camp. you gona have to find it cant hold your hand. “the one with the blond lady” . He give up road map. he caught himself in middle of it but to late said he gona give him more not less….DONT SLEEP i just got him in 6th.. he best ball king people dont now that…garret wilson in 10th yah babby…look his track record that OC he fed julio that 200 times debo list goes on folks. he gave it up in his also said NFL dont wait to long in nfl it wont wait for you watch that shit they brag now painfull but pays off..but hey ty for your time and maybe this helps people…

Adam says:

Bad Article. Didn’t do the research and clearly isn’t drafting much at all. Fails to mention the fact that Gallup tore his ACL in week 17 of last season and finished his surgery in February.

Don't worry about it says:

The only one I agree with is gallup and that’s if he doesn’t miss time due to injury, start of season. DPJ isn’t what everyone cracks him up to be. The kid had 34 receptions for 597 yards. Great, he’ll be a wr4 instead of a wr5. Off my board. Im afraid ST. B has a lot more compition now that chark & Williams is there and hock is healthy. Volume means everything and i don’t think he’ll repeat. Draft bait.

Tom says:

you’re assuming that Watson will play this year, in your assessment of DPJ – & that is looking very unlikely. I’m guessing you wouldn’t have the same opinion of him when Jacoby Brissett is named the starter for the whole season, lol.

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